Week 17 Matchups + Wheel of Shame, Theme Park Tour - Fantasy Football Podcast for 12/30

you know, 18 fantasy points, they're giving up 11 on average. They're shutting them down. So now you have Jared Stiddam at quarterback. So let's say Josh Jacobs gets his normal, full workload. Is there a situation where you would choose a different option over him in a championship matchup? Or do you just say Josh Jacobs is like the running back two on the season? You've got to keep rolling with him. I think the line for me would be in the like Ramandre category. If you were in a situation where you had Ramandre and Josh Jacobs, who were you starting this week? I would go Ramandre. Devante Adams, by the way, the last three games have been disastrous. 8.6 points, 4.8 and 2.5. Now you don't have Derek Carr, who if Derek Carr is good at anything, it's force-feeding his top target. So like Jason said, question one, will they play? Question two, will they play well?

Those are, to have both of those questions in the air for your championship week is risky business. You just need to know that with your other options. I don't want to play Darren Waller this week with Jarrett Stidham. Do you guys agree? I mean, Njoku, Kamat, are you playing those players over Darren Waller? I would play those players over Darren Waller. This defense is great. The 49ers are great against tight ends and you've got to back up. quarterback in there. You don't know where he's going to go with the ball. A lot of times backups come in. Maybe this is a Mac Hollins game. I mean, it's very unpredictable. So if you're not a superstar, a bona fide, you got me here, then I'm not playing you right now. So that means I'm playing Josh Jacobs. I'm playing Devante Adams and I'm checking out. And then on the 49er side motivation-wise, they can wrestle the number two seat away from Minnesota. That is on the table for them.

I mean, theoretically, they could also get the number one seed, right? Because they could. I think it's technically alive. Just because the Philadelphia situation. It's not likely. But the more likely thing would be getting the number two seed away. They won eight straight games. Brock Purdy's undefeated as a starter. Christian McCaffrey's in your lineup. The Debo news from earlier, he returned to a limited practice. But when you think about their long-term goals as a team, I'm not sure the two-seed versus the three-seed is the kind of thing that puts Debo Samuel on the field. No, they have slight motivation and slight motivation to the point where you could see a fourth quarter here that's out of hand and they just, they want, what's in their best interest is to kind of take it easy on people. So, you know, even with Christian McCaffrey, I don't see a monstrous, you know, game front to back in another jail. He could do enough in one half. Oh, absolutely. He could go put up.

30 fantasy points in three quarters and then rest the fourth. But trust me, if that happens and you have him, you'll be pissed. You will not be okay with the 30 points. He'll be like, ah, he could have got to be 40. Yeah, greedy in week 17 for good, for good reason. George Kittle, the tight end three on the year, two touchdowns each the last two weeks. Please play him. The Jets are seven and eight. They take on the seven and eight Seattle Seahawks. the DK Sportsbook line here, New York minus two. The over under is 42 and a half. Both teams currently sitting just outside the playoff picture in their respective conferences. This is basically an elimination game for both of them. That's a good thing, right? We get to have top tier performances, hopefully. Top tier motivation for sure. Both teams need to win out to get in, which means if you lose this game, you out.

So this is a playoff game for both of these teams. I, you know, usually in those situations, you're going to love the home team. The fact that, you know, the entire crowd has that same motivation with them as well. And this game is being played in Seattle. I think one of the biggest question marks in this game is Tyler Lockett. Will he be there? Will he be active? Because he is a very important cog for making this offense role. Gino Smith has been... awesome this year, just blown away every possible, not expectation, but every possible high-end hope, he beat it. But it's not all him. It's the fact that he's got D.K. McCaff. He's got Tyler Lockett. When you lose these pieces, he's not able to overcome those injuries. So hopefully Tyler Lockett is back and healthy. And it should be brought up the same way you did with the Raiders. You know, if we had perfect weather.

for Trevor Lawrence against the Jets in that game. Like the weather really overtook the narrative of the story. If we had perfect weather, there's no guarantee that Zay Jones, Christian Kirk, were effective fantasy options for your team that week. The Jets have been downright dominant. They are the best team against opposing wide receivers. When you bring in an injury and that matchup, it is a really risky situation. Now, Tyler Lockett is that good, right? Where you're, you know, the team, the need, the motivation. Like where do you draw the line on the Tyler Lockett start if he's active? He's in for me. No matter what. Yeah. I mean, of course. I realize. Like maybe you are just loaded with studs on your bench, but for the vast majority of leagues, Tyler Lockett would be right back. Over Dodson. Yes. Tyler Lockett injured against the great jets or Brandon Cooks. Tyler Lockett. Okay. How about?

Drake London. Hmm. That one's interesting. I'd probably still go Lockett. Okay. And one more name here. Would you go Lockett or Christian Kirk? Hmm. That is a very difficult one. I'll play Kirk. Very plausible, too. I'd go on the Kirk side as well. Yeah, I lean Lockett. Mike White is back a quarterback for the Jets. Oh, wait. That's fair. Yeah. That's fair. Garrett Wilson then suddenly, suddenly. All of those claps were Garrett Wilson. That was him and his family and his friends. He can clap so fast. I love Garrett Wilson. He's so great. I love him. Jason's start of the week, Garrett Wilson. If Garrett Wilson has Mike White, he becomes really valuable. Yes. And it even throws players like Elijah Moore into the what if category. Now, Corey Davis is back.

It was a lot easier to say, hey, Elijah Moore is going to have a good game with Mike White when there was no Corey Davis. We haven't had the chance to even see this equation yet because Davis was not back with Mike White. But there's the opportunity for both those players to have roles. Tyler Conklin had 17 targets in three Mike White games. You break glass. You start Tyler Conklin at Titan if you have to. Yeah, the targets are there and the matchup is there. Would you start Mike White or Gino Smith? in this game. That is a, I've seen this question quite a bit, and the Seattle defense is so much worse than the Jet's defense. If I had to, if I had to start one of them, I would start Gino Smith. Gino Smith has been. Regardless of Lockett? Yeah, I think almost regardless of Lockett, Gino Smith has played better than Mike White.

Mike White, they both have one elite wide receiver here, either Metcalf or Garrett Wilson, and then some other options. Gino at home, if I had to play one of those guys, it would be that. But I had Gino and I've benched him for, you know, Minchu or Hertz, you know, obviously the golf tier and all those. Hopefully you're not playing either of these quarterbacks. But there is a player in this game that I think has a good game. That is surprising that I think a lot of managers are benching in weak, nasty boy. Oh, man. Zonovan Knight, I think, is going to have a good game. And the what is because we have seen back-to-back games with Zoneman Knight sucking. 2.3 fantasy points, 1.8 fantasy points. Even Haskins can beat that one out. I don't know. That's the game I was worried about for Haskins. But in those games, you actually played...

The Detroit Lions who were shut down. Both of those games were Zach Wilson games where he doesn't target the running back. Sure. And the team is not afraid of anything he's going to do. This is a matchup against Seattle, who is really bad against the run, really, really bad against the run. With the quarterback back that will dump off passes, he's been playing the same amount of snaps, you know, 48% 47% as he was. when he was breaking out and looking great. So I think just the matchup with the quarterback. It scares my pants off. Yeah, I mean, I get it. I'm not saying like, oh, I can see it happening. You've got to start. Zonovan Knight, you know, he's just a must start. But in the category of bad options that you could be throwing out there, I think you could do worse. Naji Harris or Zonimo. I don't go Naji. Naji's been, Noggi's been really good. Okay.

No, the logic stands up. I mean, the Mike White difference in the offense. You know one thing that they run more plays than basically everybody else when he's out there. The opportunities, like you talk about percentage of snaps as though total plays don't factor in, but they do. Oh, they absolutely do. If you play 50% of, you know, 71 offensive plays versus 52 offensive plays, that is a big difference for your chance at performing. Both of these teams have lost. five of their last six games. So they are up against it. And Gino makes me nervous against the Jets defense. He really does. It will be a fun game with two teams that are desperate. Yeah. And some defensive rookie of the year potential here. Yeah. Both sides. And obviously Kenneth Walker is a start. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Minnesota is 12 and 3. They take on the 7 and 8 Green Bay Packers. The Draft King Sportsbook line, Green Bay minus 3 and a half. The over under is 47 and a half.

Minnesota beat him in week one. For whatever reason, Jaira Alexander decided to call that game a fluke. Justin Jefferson's about to break the all-time receiving record, but a two-touchdown game is a fluke, apparently. Watching Alexander's previous interviews. Oh, it was unbelievable. It totally makes sense. Like this, Alexander, he likes to have some fun. Can you imagine like a theme park day? With Jamal Williams and Jire Alexander. Oh, man. That was a must watch TV. Do they have, that's the most fun to do. Dude, people could have in their lives. Get those guys. Get Marshawn in there and just. Marshawn's the host. Yeah, yes. Oh, dude. Marshawn's the host. He's bringing these two guys together on a theme park tour. NFL, make this happen. Offseason content. You need it. Can you imagine them as like a trifecta of counselors that you see?

To kind of like help you through like depression. You go into a room with those three guys. Oh, cheer you right up. Yeah. Like make them crime fighters? I mean, there's endless opportunities here. I think they're just very likable fellas. They are. But this is a very stupid thing to say. I'm, yeah. I mean, he's very good. Not that Justin Jefferson needs motivation. Right. But this was a game that I was already expecting Jefferson to be. force fed as much as ever because he's on the precipice of this record. If he broke the record in this game, it would be in the same amount of games played as Calvin Johnson. The Green Bay defense, look, they'll be focused on him. Everybody always is. But Minnesota is still in a position to secure the number two seed with a chance at the number one seed. It's also a divisional matchup where you can't eliminate the Packers. Like that is just something that...

is not on the table for every one of these situations where a team has mixed motivation, right? Like, it's not the 49ers versus like the Seahawks in division chance to knock them out. So the 49er motivation might be more in question. I, I, whether they show up and do it, I don't know. This is in Lambo. Kirk Cousin doesn't get his, his cozy home environment, but. But the weather should be good. It's going to be chilly because it's Lambo. obviously, but there's not a big wind, not a big precipitation. This is just... There will probably be chilly as well. Oh, yeah. Available to warm you up. Delicious. Yeah, but the environment should be good for a shootout. The Vikings defense has been bad enough that the Green Bay Packers offense should be able to put up points. And the Vikings offense has been good enough that...

you know, I don't think the Packers could stop him. So I'm loving this matchup. I want pieces in it. There's a lot of motivation. I hope that Christian Watson is active. We saw last week that he finished the game with the target share lead, even though he didn't play half the game, which is pretty impressive. When he went out, he was up in the 35% market share. If you've got Christian Watson and Alan Lazard and Romeo Dobbs. I just think this could be a high over under game. I am very anti Aaron Rogers because we've tried for weeks to tell you the matchup and the circumstance and the situation, it's there for him to take advantage of and he doesn't do it. Gino Smith or Aaron Rogers? Gino Smith. Aaron Rogers is, they won last week, 13.3 fantasy points.

They won the week before. 10.9 fantasy points. Both of those matchups were outstanding. They won the week before. 13.7 fantasy points. The matchup was outstanding against Chicago. This team has won. In their wins, they've scored over 30 points one time. This is not the old Aaron Rogers. And so if you were looking at this and you said, like this is old Baker Mayfield. Okay. That's the X, that's the like name swap. So one touchdown. is like where Aaron Rogers is settling in. And I'm just tired of kind of going to that name and saying, well, the matchup's juicy, so it's going to work out. You can always end a sentence with, well, it could. Yeah. But the probable thing, I mean, we're in week 17. The probable thing is that Aaron Rogers scores his average fantasy points, which is 14. That's the probable thing. He's had great matchups and hasn't done it.

I'm much more excited about A.J. Dillon. I'm much more excited about, you know, the big play from A. Watson. What are you doing with Aaron Jones? Terrified beyond belief. So limited practices. He played through the ankle injury. Did he? I mean, well, like as in eight opportunities. No, I know. I'm just saying like, technically he's played. But it has been it has been the AJ Dillon show four straight weeks inside the top 25 touchdowns in that span. I mean, the weather has cooled off and they've gone. They've gone to the big fella. And Aaron Jones, I mean, I don't know if you have to believe this is completely on the injury. But at this point now, you're with one week left of like, can you actually go back to Aaron Jones? I think that is a real question. Tie the line, Alger or Aaron Jones? Algear. Easily. Cam Acres.

Anchors. I can't do that. I just... You can do that. I don't have the stomach for it. I can see him outscoring, but I would go Aaron Jones in that situation. If I had Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, obviously I'm starting A.J. Dillon. Okay. Isaiah Pacheco. Oh, man. I would go Aaron Jones. Pacheco. Yeah, I'm more on the side with Andy. I am terrified to start. Let me see if I can persuade you out of Aaron Jones for a second. Okay. There's outcome. I don't know if the highest tier outcome is there for Aaron Jones. AJ Dillon is playing super well. We already know that Aaron Jones is a very polar, you know, high, low, high, low player, right? So then if your two outcomes are outcome one, which is a medium tier game, and outcome two is a disaster for your championship week because of injury, and he's off the field, he limps off again, he's been limited, I just feel like I'd be too afraid to risk the bottom for the middle. Does that make sense?

It does make sense, but you're taking out the high end, which Aaron, you know, Aaron Jones high end, obviously he hasn't been doing it. Two weeks ago he was the top 12 running back. Yeah, but I mean, he's one of the few players that can, you know. You think he has a high end even with the injury and with how A.J. Dillon's playing. I think there is the potential for a high end game in there. Like I said, there's other players I would start. over Aaron Jones that you wouldn't usually do that. And it is a little bit scarier, including starting A.J. Dillon over Aaron Jones. But I do believe that that ability to have a big game in this game environment still exists. So Christian Watson, we got word that he was supposed to be limited yesterday at practice. He did not. The quotes that we got at this point is the Packers, they're hoping that the hip injury.

calms down, which is not a good thing to say about an injury. Just hoping that he can play on Sunday. You're in a very scary situation. Vikings are, although allowing the most passing yards per game, second most adjusted, or schedule adjusted fantasy points to the wide receiver. Lazard is in for me. Start of the week. And if I don't know where the flow chart is yet with Romeo Dobbs of if Christian Watson is active, are you still playing Dobbs? Like is that a... No. Okay. But if Watson is out, you're definitely playing Dobbs? Yes. Okay. Willing to. Definitely is not... I mean, that insinuates I'm locking him in. Sure. It's based on options then. And if this question is for me, that's literally my flowchart. I have Christian Watson and Dobbs and that one of those two's in the final roster spot. And so... Jason's just been shaking his head, by the way, for the last like five minutes. So let's say Jason, because we don't have the info yet, recording in the morning.

Limited practice for Christian Watson. That's, you're going Watson overdobs. If he's limited, limited, I'm, you're not getting, no, you're only getting limited. You, because he didn't practice yesterday. So you get one more report. If he's active, I'm playing Christian Watson. Okay. And Hawkinson's in. Hawkinson is very end. He's a great play this week. Please be bad. Come on. I'm just saying. There's a lot of foot clan that are relying on T. J. Hawkinson. Yeah, but we have expressed to the foot clan that we are completely. For the people. We are for everybody, like even over our own fantasy teams, except when it comes to week 17, we will give you our process of what we truly think is going to happen. But our rooting interests, they are self-centered. They go right in, right to us. The Rams are 5 and 10. They take on the 96 chargers. The drafting sports book line, charges minus 6 and a half. The overrunner is 42 and a half. So both teams at home in this one, they just paint the field.

Chargers colors. Justin Herbert, do you got the stones after he has kicked you in the Cajones, in the stones for two weeks? Feels a little bit like a higher tear Aaron Rogers situation. Yeah, really does. I mean, this is a long season of him disappointing. He's throwing a total of like 20 fewer touchdowns than the year prior. The depth of targets are putrid. It feels weirdly, like it feels Tom Brady-esque how much checkdowns and short passes are happening. You know, Keenan Allen is an absolute stud because he's getting 14 targets a game right now, but Keenan Allen's not down the field. Keenan Allen is, you know, just a better version of what we're seeing from Michael Pittman right now. And it works, but like that doesn't move your offense quickly. It doesn't put up high points. It doesn't help your quarterback.

have a great output. It helps Keenan Allen and PPR leagues have a great output. One finish with more than 20 fantasy points for Justin Herbert in the last 11 games. Gross. Kirk cousins or Justin Herbert? Kirk, Kirk's been on fire. Yes. Although, man, I, Kirk, I'll tell you right now, I know we've got our lineups figured out for the draft king segment. Kirk was my quarterback in that lineup for the majority of the week. Wow. He is not now. Because I am a little worried about the road matchup situation for... Well, Justin Herbert's also on the road. Oh, no, he's at home. I forgot they, yeah, they're technically the target. It's specific to Lambo and Kirk in a game that he needs to perform in. But Herbert... That does sound like where Kirk failed. That is where he tends to fail, although I think you have to have more confidence in him right now because he has the better weapons. He has Hawkinson, Osborne, Jefferson,

Cook. It's a lot. It's just a better situation where, yes, you can check down to Keenan Allen every week. But where's the big play? Yeah. Where's the big play, man? Also, get bodied at him feeling. You're right about that. Austin Echler limited on Thursday. Right now we expect him to play. There was a good interview with friend of the show Matt Harmon where, you know, he kind of said, look, he wants to be out there for every game. Like his choice is he wants to play 17. it's going to be up to the coaches. So right now, look, the Vegas line tells us things, right? And it doesn't tell us that the chargers are sitting important pieces. They're heavy favorites. The Rams scored 51 last week. They're still six and a half point favorites. I think Echler is in if he's in, right? If he's active, for sure. You have to go with him. What do you do with Mike Williams? I mean, he has been a player that has lost target share from the first and second half of the year.

Are you playing Mike Williams with confidence? Like Lazard or Williams? Lizard or Williams, I think that's a Christian Watson question. If Christian Watson is there and they could spread the ball around and Lazard becomes the number two target in that offense, I would lean the other direction and go towards Mike Willie. Cam Acres, went bonkers last week, has scored what, six touchdowns in three weeks? Yeah, he's gone bonkers for a couple weeks in a row. And, you know, it's not just touchdowns. He's running the last two weeks, 5.1, 5.4 yards a clip. This past week when he got 23 carries for 118 yards, looked really good. Obviously, that was an outlier game for this offense. Sure. I mean, Baker was perfect. The offense was perfect. But Denver.

their defense has been so good all year. And it just seemed like they got to a mental breaking point. Obviously, the coach getting fired after that game. That tells you a lot that the coach got fired after that game in his first year of coaching. So I'm obviously, I've been in the Cammakers camp all week, the most bullish among the three of us. This is the number one running back in football over the last three weeks in fantasy points. And the team has had success. They've won two of the... two of those three games obviously having baker there is providing stability so i am i would start cam makers uh almost in any circumstance possible all right did we ask i mean i don't want to make people vomit but did we ask josh jacobs are camakers you didn't i thought you would okay i'm only asking i was afraid to put it on public record you well that's but i'm playing cam acres oh brother

Okay. The last three weeks, nasty. I don't, is it, though? Yeah, yeah. It's nasty to start the number one running back over three weeks. Who's, you know, Acres one, Barkley, two, Henry three. Yeah. Those are the numbers. Touchdowns will do that. I'm all in on Cam Acres and I have no pride. Tyler Higby is a, it's a hot, he's an high upside, low down side. Higby. He's a Higby. That's a new category of tight in. There's good ones, bad ones, and then there's Higby's. Yep. And Gerald Everett, I think you just move away from him. He's just deep prioritized in the offense. Agreed. I, that's another almost upset type of game, the Charger game.

That makes a lot of sense. I think the Rams can win that game. There is very little motivation for the Rams. Their seating can move around a little bit. The chargers. Yeah, sorry, for the chargers. Their seating can move around a little bit. But some of that movement around is not even on them. Like if they went out, they could move up if certain other things happen. If they lose out, they could move down if certain other things happen. So it's going to be very difficult against a depleted Rams team to really go out there and say, giving it everything we got. A couple primetime games left. Steelers, seven and eight, Ravens, 10 and 5. This one doesn't feel too complicated from a fantasy standpoint. The over-under is just 35 points on draft kings. The Baltimore Ravens are two and a half point favorites. That's a low over-under. We've seen these battles before, and guess what? Week 14, 16 to 14. If it's the exact same score, I won't be shocked. The offenses...

Tyler Huntley, can you pick it? They can't move the ball consistently enough to give you a great deal of confidence in past catching weapons, including Mark Andrews, right? Like, you're probably going to play him this week. You're not playing them if you got him. This week is what it feels like. Yeah, I mean, when you play him, you're not playing it. Well, yeah, I'm saying you're probably out of the playoffs. Right, right. But if you have gotten here. Thus far, by playing them, just keep doing it. The rest of your lineups great. Well, I mean, the toughest question is like Pat Fryermuth or Mark Andrews. Oh, man. The tight ends in this game where Mark Andrews has been the tight end 23, 23 and 19. DeMarcus Robinson might not even play in this game. I mean, Deshaun Jackson and Sammy Watkins, right? Yeah. Those might be your starting wide receivers for the 2022 Baltimore Ravens. If you thought what they did in their backfield last year,

Yeah. What was it, Devonta Foreman or sorry, Devonta Freeman and Lev Bell. Lev Bell was there. Yes. And Latavius. And Latavius. They have up the ante. They have said, Deshaun Jackson, you get to play football still. By the way, shout out to T.Y. Hilton, not a bad game. Yeah, he looks all right. Genuinely seems like the kind of OBJ help for your playoffs that they needed. But yeah, you've got, you've got Watkins and Deshaun Jackson if you're feeling. Disgusting. If I had to go Mark Andrews versus Pat Fryer Muth, I would still go Mark Andrews. The Steelers over the course of the season, they've been pretty good defense, but that's the area of the field where you can beat him. I'd go Muth. And I don't blame you at all. I mean, you're talking the last three weeks. He just hasn't been good. They need Lamar Jackson back, but the team doesn't need Lamar Jackson back until the playoffs. Najee Harris, J.K. Dobbins, playing both of them.