Top 10 QB Rankings + Player Tweaks, Tom Riddle - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/13

footballers. That's upstart.com slash footballers. Don't forget to use our URL to let them know that we sent you. Loan amounts will be determined based on credit but also income and other information provided in the loan application. You can go and learn more at upstart.com slash footballers. Well, we have plummeted way down the rankings to number two. Patrick Mahomes is here. By the way, like Mahomes, Alan, and they're both going ahead of Kyler.

our consensus number one. And then Lamar is basically going at the same spot. It's like depending on the draft you're in, somebody's taking Lamar there, somebody's taking Kyler there on average. So Patrick Mahomes, he's been a quarterback one in 75% of his starts going back to 2018. You want a reason to take Patrick Mahomes or if in a vacuum, no draft consideration, you want a reason to start Patrick Mahomes over Kyler. Three years, 75% of his starts, he finishes as a quarterback one.

Yeah, he's the safer option. I mean, he just is. He's got a better coordinator, better weapons. Fewer mistakes, less interceptions. Yeah, I mean, there's very little to say poorly about Patrick Mahomes. We all know he's unfathomably great at football. Andy Reid, greater sign Cliff Kingsbury. Oh, man, that's not even a fair fight at all.

Yeah, I mean, Andy Reid is an offensive mastermind and Cliff Kingsbury. TBD. But the issue with Patrick Mahomes is when you are giving up a second round pick to draft him, basically he has to have that 50 touchdown season to really pay off in what you are losing at that place with a really high end.

running back or wide receiver. Just too expensive when you have other great options, I think. Nothing more to say. Yeah, I say the last thing I would say about Mahomes is what's nice is, you know, in fantasy football, the trend, if you go back 10 years, the number one QB and ADP was always last year's number one quarterback. That's just how it worked. Someone hit.

someone flashed and then they're automatically the number one guy. Yeah, that's happened a lot. Lamar. And the Michael Vic here. And like that just that is happening. But those quarterbacks were not actually safe to be the top three guy. Patrick Mahomes is very safe to be a top three quarterback. Number three on our list is Josh Allen. Excellent. Buffalo Bill's quarterback.

Jason and myself have met three, Mike, at four. Yeah, take that. His average draft position is the end of the third round as the quarterback two. So when you talk about that trend, Mike, he didn't slide all the way up to the number one position, despite finishing at number one overall. He slid up to the number two by ADP behind Mahomes. Ended up with 4,500 yards, 37 touchdowns, just 10 interceptions, right? Like, it's one thing to put up 37 touchdowns, outlier type of season. It's another two.

just reduce that interception total to an elite level. That's what was most impressive. That's the biggest sign to me that there was a true level up and not an outlier. But another eight rushing touchdowns. Like he doesn't do it like Lamar and Kyler, but he still ends up in the end zone and is valuable with that Cam Newton S type of prowess. Yeah, you're not getting 800 to 1,000 rushing yards, but the touchdowns on the ground will come because he is unbelievably.

valuable there. You get an extra blocker at the goal line when it's your quarterback running the ball. And because of his size and strength, they're like, they're never going to go away from that. Maybe when he's like 36, they'll stop. But Cam's still doing it. So his rushing touchdowns will be there. His passing yardage will be there. His connection with Stefan Diggs is great. The offense is, you know, they didn't have a change. There was a lot of fear that maybe their offensive coordinator would be promoted and out of there. But this is just a great offense.

it's an offense that doesn't need to run the ball, probably won't run the ball that well. And I expect great things again. The one place that I don't expect to be as good is the touchdown passing rate. Six and a half percent of Josh Allen's throws were touchdowns. That's pretty darn high. You know, NFL average is more around four and a half. So if he has a good season and he's at five, but.

takes a slight regression from, you know, his MVP efficiency of this last year and just comes back towards a good quarterback, then I think you, I would be surprised to have him stay put at that touchdown rate personally. Which means he's probably not worth the investment that high in your draft. And that's really the headline for fantasy players. He did have seven top three finishes over the course of the year. So he had monster games that won you weeks. If you listen to the show last year, I infamously.

made a championship week decision to start Tom Brady against Detroit instead of Josh Allen against New England in New England. Yeah. And Tom Brady went out and scored 40 fantasy points in the first. Oh, you were right. In the first half and didn't play in the second half. And then Josh Allen went out and put up 45 against the Patriots in New England. What a big dummy. You are wrong. So I think part of that was.

that's impressive, right, to go on the road against the team that has historically kept your fantasy numbers extremely suppressed and then go out and just light them up through and through. Yeah, and I've seen a bunch of, like, I'm not drafting Josh Allen in the third round. It's simply not happening. I think we've laid out a good pro and the pros and the cons for Josh Allen. I have seen a lot of people saying,

I can keep Josh Allen in the seventh or the eighth round because that's what his ADP was last year. And he was one of our top targets. And so just to answer to those people, if you can keep Josh Allen in the seventh or eighth round, yes. Congrats. Yeah, I would 100% do that. Absolutely. And it's a good point not to toot our own horns, but hones.

What does that sound like? But the point that you just glossed over. You don't tote your own homes. We were high on Josh Allen last year as a breakup potential. He's in the ultimate draft kit as one of our breakouts. And we always want to try to find that break. Like when Lamar Jackson won everybody his league, he was a late round pick that year. When Mahomes broke out and won everybody their league, he was a late round pick. Josh Allen last year was a late round pick. So Kyler's going to be great. Josh Allen's going to be great. But we want to find the guy.

going in round eight plus that has the potential to really break out. Yeah, and quarterback one hasn't repeated since 2012. That's a long time. Lamar comes in at four on our consensus rankings. Jason has him at four. Mike at three, I'm at six with Lamar. Last year, he had 26 passing touchdowns, 2700 yards passing, seven rushing touchdowns, a thousand yards on the ground.

He already owns two of the top three quarterback rushing yards seasons of all time. That's only because he hasn't played another season. Correct. But it was a year in which the first, what, 10 weeks, if you had taken the plunge, right? Like people did it. They did it with Michael Vic. They took the plunge. Oh, boy. He's just too valuable if he gives you those special weeks. And it wasn't.

It was a bumpy ride. It was a ride that didn't help your team for at least the first half of the year. In the second half, okay, you got it going. Quarterback two and fancy points per game behind Josh Allen. Fourth round, round where Kyler's going. What is the, I mean, now you've got injuries. Rashad Bateman is not coming back for a while. Most people are saying that's going to be October. Do you have worries? I don't. Like, Rashad Bateman is in addition.

At this point, he is not a subtraction to what. So is he fairly priced? Is Lamar fairly priced at the 408 right now? I think so. I would prefer to, I would play the ADP gamble game and go into the fifth and see if Kyler or Lamar can drop to the fifth. And if they don't, that's all right. I'll just take a quarterback a little bit later. But Bateman will, I think he's an upgrade to this team for sure. He's an incredible rookie prospect for the Ravens.

But he wasn't there last year. He wasn't there two years ago when Lamar Jackson was great. And Sammy Watkins, for all the jokes and everything of Sammy Watkins, never fully living up to his potential, he's still a good wide receiver. Like, he can still help an NFL team. He's cold-blooded, baby. I mean, he's far better than a Willie Sneed type of ancillary player. I do think Lamar Jackson is a...

properly priced, but again, I won't draft him in the fourth. What if he slips to the fifth and you didn't get Kyler? Are you, is he off your board? Because I was going to ask you that if both of those guys. That's a great question. Yeah, I probably, to be honest, I probably would not take Lamar Jackson in the fifth round. Let me read you his passing yard totals in the five weeks that he set the league on fire last year. 107.

163, 243, 183, 113, 113. That's hysterical. So I think that that is a little bit scary, right? Like there were a lot of rushing touchdowns for in that five game span. A lot of passing touchdowns. And a lot of passing touchdowns on low yardage. But I don't know if that's, I don't know. I don't know if that was like a return to form as much as a nice five game run that. Efficiency wise, that's clearly an outlier. That's even an outlier per.

passing yard for his outlier season the year prior. So, you know, through the first 12 weeks, there were only four games where Lamar Jackson was a top 15 quarterback. So we know that because of the small passing pie, there is disappointment when he doesn't get all the touchdowns. All right. Let's move on to. And look, I'm not saying, I'm just saying he was on the Madden cover last year.

Not saying. So he's not this year. See, I thought you were going to go with he won you a title and so you're undyingly loyal to. Because you didn't draft him. You traded for him after he was right. Which is a strategy you can take with these players. Yes. If somebody over invests on a Josh Allen and then you get a couple rough weeks, that's when you bounce. Well, here's our first kind of surprise, bigger surprise compared to consensus. Number five on our consensus quarterback rankings. Number nine in the community.

It's Tom Brady. The Plant Man himself. I have him at four guys. Yeah, this is you guys. Jason has him at five. One of us has ended up with him in every mock draft this off season because he's an eighth round pick. And Mike, you've got him at eight, which is still... I have no problem with Tom Brady. I'm just saying I don't have them. Yeah, you have him a spot ahead of ADP too. I wouldn't be pushing them up to five. Last year, 4,600 yards, 40 touchdowns through the air. Is that six rushing yards?

Is that what he had last year? Three rushing touchdowns on six rushing yards. Imagine if he had a thousand rushing yards. That Tom Brady sneak? They can't be stopped. That is accurate. That is. Okay. That's great. I mean, it's unstoppable. It really is an.

unfathomable weapon. I don't understand it. And I would not have believed that it was just a Tom Brady thing if he didn't change teams because you think it's like, oh, he's working with his offensive line and Bill Belichick, they see something, they've game planned something. But he changes teams. It's like, you can't stop him from getting a couple yards on that quarterback sneak. I think the headline here for us, and we've talked about it this off season, but if you're just coming to the show for the first time, we need to make the case for Tom Brady because this is the first quarterback that we're all willing to draft.

in fantasy leagues because of the draft cost. He was acclimating to the Bruce Aryan system last year. He is the goat. So it happened quicker than it did for Carson Palmer or James Winston or any of the other Andrew Luck. He only had 12 interceptions in the system. And from week seven on, he was the quarterback six. So if you think it's silly to have him up here, this is what he was from week seven on. That's a pretty large sample size.

won the Super Bowl, and I don't care how old he is anymore. No. I'm just going to live there in the Tom Brady experience until he tells me I'm not allowed to. Yeah. When someone makes a deal with the devil, you don't worry about their age any longer. It's not my deal. Right. I mean, my soul's intact. I don't know about Brady, but at 44 he's.

Something's going on. There's a bunch of horror cruxies all over the place. For sure, we've got to find them and destroy them. But in the meantime, draft him because look, when I look at the splits last year, you're Tom Riddle. Oh, Tom Riddle indeed. Yikes. So here's the thing. When I look at the splits of last year, you're darn right. Harry Potter nerd for life. How was your Dungeons and Dragons session this week?