Fantasy Football - ADP Risers + High Hopes, Upside QBs - Podcast for 5/28

Those are the speculation ads. Wide receiver Nico Collins agreed to terms on an adjusted contract that guarantees his salary in 2026 and 2027. That's so much better news. Yeah. I like this news. More money for Nico? Yeah. Just, yeah, positive. Players getting money, doing good things. All right. How about this one? Buccaneers head coach Todd Bowles said running back Bucky Irving is, quote, coming along fine and is, quote, expected back sometime in summer or fall? Oh, now, to be fair, you added the inflection of, have you not seen that quote yet? I saw everything but the or fall part. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

You know what they do in fall? That's the big part. You know what they do in fall, guys? They play the football. Oh, man. Or spring. Good luck. Good luck making your decision on Bucky. Well, he was just discussed on the Tuesday wild card episode if you want to go back and listen to that discussion. I'm not sure it's going to give you conviction one way or another, but the truth is, the range of outcomes on Bucky is high risk, high reward. I mean, that is kind of what makes up fantasy. So if you have stability elsewhere and you want to take a shot on a guy that's being drafted as an RB2, that could be an RB1, whatever the case may be, there's upside.

So I don't think we have any other news to talk about before we get into the mailbag, unless you guys have anything you want to add. No, I'm good. All right, we'll take a break and jump into some questions, see if we can help you out. All right, without further ado, it's time to jump into the mailbag. Mailbag. All right, if you have a question for the show, we're here to help. Go to the website, thefantasyfootballers.com, click the submit a question button, or you can dial our voicemail hotline, 302-464-TFFB. We're going to start off with a voicemail question. Hey, Ballers.

In 10 things to remember, you said don't draft middle-round tight ends. Does that apply to Colton Loveland and Tyler Warren this season? Yes or no? Thanks. Have a good one. I'll take this one, guys. So the question, do you avoid middle-round tight ends? Because historically, as soon as the elite guys are gone and players are drafting, you're like, I want a player who I can just put into the tight end position. He's just going to start for me, and it doesn't work. Yeah, I mean, looking at last year, even if you were to have drafted who finished as the tight end 2, which sounds, oh, great, versus the tight end 12, which sounds bad, it was meaningless nonsense.

It had no – it was like a couple points per game. Except for the playoff run of Kyle Pitts. Well, sure, I mean, on a per game, like individual pick-your-games-out basis, that's just streaming the position. So my tip on my things to remember was after basically McBride and Bowers, I'm punting to the end. I'm not taking a shot away. It's not because I don't like the tight ends that are there, but to take a shot away from a 6th round, a 5th round, a 7th round, an 8th round, wide receiver, or running back. I listed off all the guys we missed out on in those rounds last year taking these other tight ends.

It's not worth it. It's not good strategy. And then something happened. Michael Pittman went away. DJ Moore went away. And all of a sudden, it looked like those two guys, Colson Loveland and Tyler Warren, have the true chance to go into – I mean, Mike and I were already there. Sure, that's fine. I mean, you guys saw the future. You saw that those players would be removed. I didn't need them to be removed. Go on. I mean, with Pittman there – That was the persuading factor for you. For Tyler Warren, yes. A little bit more target clarity. For Tyler Warren, yes.

I mean, DJ Moore had 85 targets, 50 receptions. That wasn't a huge clog. Michael Pittman was the leader in targets. So, Tyler Warren, to me, with that move – I cannot hear you repeat stats and numbers without hearing 55 burgers, 50 by front every single time you do it. Oh, man. Okay. Well, congrats, man. That's awesome. I'm doing something. So, I absolutely include Loveland and Warren in the elite tier. I'm not drafting – Yeah, you got to go. So, that's the question, right? How far do you go, buddy? No, no, no. I am a huge believer in Harold Fannin Jr.

I think his talent is awesome. I've tried to trade for him in dynasty leagues. I absolutely – Failed. 100% will not be drafting Fannin this year. Oh. He is not in that tier. Oh. He doesn't have the quarterback play. He doesn't have the offense around him to really, truly be elite. He has the talent. I think if he were to swap with Tyler Warren, I would be saying the same thing about Tyler Warren. Tucker Craft? Fannin, Craft to me as well. So, those four names are the line? So, to me, it's the four – this is just my personal strategy, and everyone's going to be different.

But I am Bowers McBride, Warren, and Mr. Loveland. And then I'm drafting my tight end in the last – whoever is left over when everyone else has their tight ends, I'll find someone. The most recent news is Matt LaFleur saying Tucker Craft could be ready by training camp. So, if the ACL truly looks 100% fine – like, if he's their full participant beginning of training camp, which timeline says shouldn't be. If he is, and he really beats that, then I might move him into it. But he would be the only one that I would be willing to draft. Of the five.

Like, Sam Laporta. Great tight end. Dalton Kincaid has big games. There's – Kyle Pitts, the tight end, too. I'm not wasting my time with any of them. They don't make a difference versus one another. You have to be truly elite at that position to matter. Otherwise, take more shots at the running backs and wide receivers. Do you think it was worth drafting Tyler Warren last year? Yeah. It was very unfortunate, the injury. He was basically in that elite tier. He was almost 11 fantasy points a game, which is – I mean, tight end two last year was like nine. But until the injury, and then he kind of went away.

Phillip Rivers couldn't get it done. In our mock draft that we did here a couple weeks ago, McBride and Bowers went early third. Loveland went fourth. Fannin and Warren went in the fifth. It slipped a couple rounds. Kraft in the seventh. And then it was like Laporta and Pitts. And those were areas where, like, for instance, Tucker Kraft went after Vermondre, Manungay, before Dowdle and Dobbins. It looks like a running back run in that round. But, yeah, that'll be an interesting one. I mean, I think that it's always tantalizing if you have young talent late in the draft that has upside.

I haven't seen, you know, Stowers and Sadiq excitement the way we would have had Loveland and Warren, which is – And Sadiq just had surgery. I guess that should have been in the news. Hernia surgery. Yeah. He should be fine for the start of the season, but that's not great for getting, you know, off to a hot start. All right. Yeah, last year Warren's ADP was the eighth round as the tight end nine. Part of the avoid tight ends in the middle rounds is if you already know who they are. You already know who they are as a fantasy player where it's like Loveland and Warren, we don't completely know.

They seem like they're on the path to being top-tier, potential elite tight ends for fantasy. The other – it's like – it's like Pitts – you know, and I mean, I'm interested in Laporta, but at the same time, I know the strategy of – it's like Pitts, Laporta, and Kincaid are just – you know who they are. They'll give you a couple spike weeks, but they're going to give you plenty of weeks of three to four points. I think one of the difficulties of drafting those guys in the middle rounds is it's not just the trade with the other positions.

Because those guys – I mean, in those rounds, those guys can flop too. It is making sort of a commitment in your draft to a tight end that might not be a good weekly starter. But when you draft them there, that's your tight end. And you really feel locked in on that for a while. You know, tight ends are going to have fluctuating weeks. You're going to be, oh, he had a bad week one. Oh, I'm going to play him week two. Oh, well, it's kind of a slow start. I know what I saw in him. It's going to come along.

You don't stream the position. You don't make a change. When you grab Hunter Henry at the very last pick of your draft, and it doesn't really make that big a difference versus him and Laporta on a per-game basis, and then week one, Stowers is crazy involved, or Chigokonquo has ten targets, you're fine just going to the waiver wire and moving on. But when you do draft Laporta in the whatever round, you're like, I don't really need to drop it here. I've got my guy. Instagram question coming in from FML. Bashal Tootin or Christian Watson in a half PPR league? Currently very similar in ADP, fifth and sixth round picks.

We did talk about Bashal Tootin in our wild card episode as well, but Christian Watson, you know, one of the more exciting upside cases. Yeah, you do. Let's hear your answer because you heard it. Yeah, I feel like I'd go Watson because I'm higher on Watson than I am Tootin. I am higher positionally on Christian Watson than Bashal Tootin. It's just the – I mean, look, they're both wild cards of you can't be certain that they're going to hit. It's projecting. But if Tootin hits, he's so much more valuable. I guess, you know, for you guys, your – because I'll throw to you, Jay.

I don't know if you're as in on Watson as I am, but it's like Tootin and Watson, who do you think has the – who do you think hits – is more likely to hit? The more likely to hit is Christian Watson. I think Christian Watson is likely to hit. But I agree with you. If these guys both do what the hopes are, the value – it's way more valuable to have Tootin. If Tootin hits, he's going to make a bigger difference in fantasy than Christian Watson. Christian Watson isn't going to be someone where he's getting 100 receptions. Like, that's just not his game.

He's going to be downfield. He's going to have, you know, a lot of touchdowns and be way better than where he's going right now in a draft. But he's not going to be just an every-week dominator. Whereas on the Jags offense, if he takes over this Travis H. Ann Jr. role and gets the pass catching, which he did in college even though he didn't last year, then, yeah, I think Tootin has a higher ceiling, less likely to get there than Watson is to get to his ceiling, which is lower. Last year, Christian Watson in his 10 games played would have projected to 60 catches for 1,000 yards and 10 touchdowns.

I mean, if you want to extrapolate the loss of Josh Jacobs outward. Yeah. I mean, I don't know how many times we've said the identity of this team is Josh Jacobs. If they have to throw the football, which I think they're willing to do if that's the – like, they've done it before. I mean, Jordan Love was a top-five quarterback, right? I mean, wasn't he five? Jordan Love, he gave us one great season, and even though Jordan Love – And it was not Jacobs. Even though Jordan Love is not giving us tremendous fantasy success over the last couple years, him as a player, like his advanced metrics say,

if they throw more, Jordan Love will be great for fantasy and so will his weapons. Yeah, that's something else to watch out for. Another voicemail question. Dave Allers is Matt from L.A., and since we're deep into the offseason, I wanted to ask for each of you guys, when was one player that you had high hopes for, but they just kind of fell through the next season? Who goes far back to when the pod started? Love the show. Who is a player who we had high hopes for that let us down? I mean, carry on, Johnson. I mean, that's like my –

So, so, so, so many. That's my cross to bear. Believe it or not. Because I did it two years in a row. When you double down and you lose, you lose more. Yeah, when you said never wrong just early, that name came to mind. Man, that was never wrong just injury. I still believe that to my core. I am on Jason's side. I think carry on, Johnson would have been great, but his body broke down. I mean, we've got – I mean, Kuge was a name on my list. I mean, Kuge was a my guy for me one year, believe it or not.

I do not remember that. Yep, Quentin Johnson was a my guy. Oh, no, that was Mike Williams. Yeah, okay. My bad. Same archetype, same team. I picture them the exact same. I mean, it makes sense. Mike Williams is one. All right, Mike Williams. We've been doing this a long time. The players just morph into the next one at the same size. But, no, Mike Williams was one that I had as a my guy. We've had several of my guys over the year that were actually the year before. I had Cooper Cup the year before he was the number one overall wide receiver in the entire league.

We've done it several times. We talked about this on the footcast yesterday. We have a weird track record of being one year early on are my guys. For several days. For a lot of them. A lot of them. Oh, gosh. So, I've got the whole Kyle in under 60 seconds grab the entire my guys archive of all time. But, who do you think, to answer the question, who do you, is there a player that you really believed in that let you, like you just, you were wrong? Oh, dude. Royce Freeman. Royce Freeman drafted by the Denver Broncos. He had the tier, right?

The giant. Huh? Was he the one with the giant? No, no, that's Noshan. Noshan Moran. We're getting all the names mixed up. No, Royce Freeman. The giant. Was a third round pick to the Denver Broncos, who had a completely open depth chart at the running back position. Royce's production profile was redonkulous. Everything totally made sense. The only thing I didn't see coming was an undrafted free agent, Phillip Lindsey, beating him out for the job. I had Jahan Dotson after the rookie season. That was a huge letdown. I thought he would. I thought what I saw on film was great. I think that was a, that was a big letdown for everybody.

Yeah. That one, that one hurt. Um, do you guys have any other names that come to mind? Trey Lance, Mike? Yeah. Well. Trey boo boo. Blake Jarwin. Blake Jarwin to injury. Trey Lance is that. Who was the. That's all on. I blame Shanahan. There was a Charger. I think this was San Diego Chargers running back who we love. Ryan Matthews. Ryan Matthews was. He was going to be so good. Ryan Matthews is just the what could have been. Every year was what could have been with Ryan Matthews. That dude was electric and his body was made of paper mache. Not made for the NFL.

You had one year, Mike, where you had Ryan Matthews. At that time, he was an eagle. And you had Dante Moncrief slapping the base for Indianapolis. Yeah. Slapping the base. And I feel like Moncrief let us down too. Jason, I got one more name for you. I got one more. Let me have it. It'll just punch me. Right. Kobe Fleener. Oh, dude. You're telling me this. Of course, Kobe Fleener. Peyton Manning's tight end. No, no. That was when he went to the Saints. Yeah. You really. You projected him forward. Drew Brees is tight. There you go. Yes. He was the.

He was the post Jimmy Graham. Yeah. There have been some names over the years for fun stuff. All right. YouTube question from AZ. After QB eight, who has the most upside? Is it matchup dependent? So looking at the later quarterbacks, you know, Trevor Lawrence is at 10. For me, that's the name. He was almost the name to bring up on who's going to be drafted higher than where they're currently going. He was so good last year. The second half of last year, he was just dominant for fantasy. I think that's a great name to bring up. Yeah. We have also in the UDK, one of the things that's a feature, we have a risk rating, but

we also have an upside meter for players that we see, you know, if you're differentiating because you want to add somebody with more fluctuation on your team with more upside. We do throw that in there as well. Obviously, Mahomes is going to be that name because Mahomes always has upside. He does. The name to me is Caleb Williams. Caleb Williams has every opportunity to, I mean, he runs the ball. He has a great offense. We love, you know, we're debating all these different offensive pieces and they all go to Caleb Williams. I think we, we as a, we as an entity, like the whole universe does not.

We as a universe. Let me speak on behalf of the universe. Do not really believe Caleb Williams is going to be, you know, ever develop into like one of the, the best of the, you're going to be talking about Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes and Caleb Williams because his accuracy, his consistency has just never been there. He has to Josh Allen. Right. Exactly. He's got to, he's got to turn over a new page where it's like, I am now an every play consistent machine, but should he do that? Everything is set up for him. He'd be, he has the skill set.

He's got the body size. He's got the weapons. He's got the offensive line. I mean, the fourth down conversion. Should he got it all that step? I mean, you're talking about a guy that next year we could be, you know, who, who has the option to be, you know, a top three quarterback next year. He should. If last year, which was his sophomore season, right? Mm-hmm. If that had been his rookie year, can you comprehend? Oh, man. What we'd be anticipating for this season? Because that, those numbers, the big plays, the playoff run. And if you said any of that stuff as a, you know, you didn't have the burnout of the first