THE UNOFFICIALFOOTBALLERSFAN ARCHIVE↗Transcript links use the exact YouTube video’s clock. Machine transcripts can contain errors.
Jason begins the show powdered but painfully burned after swimming with his children around noon on Father's Day in 115-degree heat. The hosts say he averages roughly one sunburn each summer, and the closing returns to his back before he admits that he forgets sunscreen every year.
A Joe Mixon value case is introduced as 'Mike's favorite' across two adjacent transcript paragraphs, and the hosts say using Joseph is already triggering. Later, an unlabeled ranking exchange reveals that the presenter is higher on Mixon than expected, so the presenter moves him down simply because the Joseph wording got into his head.
A host attempts Bhayshul Tuten and produces a noise another host mistakes for a sound-system glitch or a fart into the microphone. After the desk confirms it was merely the pronunciation, an audible reaction prompts 'Is that Matt?'; the answer is yes, followed by 'the child in the room' and a tease that he found it too funny.
The hosts confirm Travis Etienne as the official prior-season Poopiest Pants Footie winner. When asked whether he received it, they say it is still in the mail, concede that most Footies stay in the box, and imagine recipients checking the mailbox every day.
The George Pickens case explicitly says Jason refers to him only as George. The hosts call that a lazy first-name nickname, while the defense is simply that it helps with memory and that 'he's George.' An unlabeled host later coins Payday Pickens for the possibility that a huge season earns him a gigantic contract.
Jason arrives with a powdered, painful back after swimming with his children at noon on Father's Day without enough protection. The desk says he averages roughly one sunburn every summer, and the close confirms that he forgets sunscreen every year. A Joe Mixon value case is introduced by splitting 'Mike's favorite' across adjacent transcript paragraphs; saying Joseph is described as already triggering, and a later unlabeled rankings exchange ends with someone moving Mixon down simply because the Joseph wording got into his head. During the Travis Etienne case, a host's attempt at Bhayshul Tuten sounds to another host like a microphone glitch or fart. The desk then identifies the audible amusement as Matt, 'the child in the room,' without attributing any lexical speech to him. Etienne is confirmed as the prior season's official Poopiest Pants Footie winner, but the award is still in the mail; the hosts admit most Footies stay in the box while winners repeatedly check the mailbox. The George Pickens case reinforces Jason's established practice of calling him only George because it is easier to remember, then an unlabeled host coins Payday Pickens for a possible contract-year explosion.
red flag of numbers that are over 35% is where you start to be very concerned about regression. So looking at the team level, the offensive coordinator is gone. They're all pro center is gone. And the team was just so good last year. They became one of seven teams over the last decade to average 3.8 or more touchdowns per game. And then if you look at the teams that we have data on, what happened the next year. You have Matt Ryan's Falcons. They drop from 4.1 down to 2.2. Mahomes Chiefs in 2018, 4.4 down to 3.5. Like, Aaron Rogers in 2020, 4.1 down to 3.1. That's still a great offense. They're giving you points. But if you take away nearly a touchdown, a game, yeah, all those elite teams are regressing by at least 10 total touchdowns. If you're taking away a touchdown a week or so,
Like that, that is a big deal. I know that Montgomery has the upside should Jemir Gibbs miss time. I will not deny that fact. But you're having to take David Montgomery there in the fifth round. And then another thing on top of that was he's an older back. He's 28. And he's not completely inefficient. But big time stuff is simply not happening. Last year. 185 carries. His longest run was 21 yards on 185 carries over the last five years. Running backs with 185 or more carries to not have a longer run. 29-year-old Kareem Hunt, 37-year-old Frank Gore. He just... 37-year-old Frank Gore? Did you say 37? Yeah. Like, because... The Kennedy Stone. Yeah. The explosion, it wasn't there in terms of on the ground. And then he actually...
He overproduced in the receiving game. His yards per reception was very high. He caught 95% of his passes that were throwing it. There's some things where the lines themselves and David Montgomery, especially in the passing game, overproduced. And it makes me feel like there could be more fragility to the David Montgomery pick. He was 13 for 55 on average. That's what you got from him on the ground per week. But he scored in 10. separate weeks. So it really, it is a lot of touchdown dependency. Which in the, you're like, hey, they're going to do it again. Maybe. To me the argument. Historically, these teams, they lose touchdowns because to stay that hot, you can do it over a season. It happens. You catch fire. You're magic. But then the next season, you're like, oh, hey, we're not as good as we were last year. The compounding issue to me would be this. Let's say you have two outcomes. The offense is humming and cruising.
like it was last year, right? And so Montgomery's fine, and it's touchdown dependent, but he's fine. The other option is the one that is more scary to me, which is the offense is not doing what it did last year. It is not humming and cruising. They are not scoring as much. The answer to that equation... It could just be cruising. The answer to that equation is not more David Montgomery. It's more Jamir Gibbs. To spark the offense. So if it does go bad, it could go worse, in my opinion, because you need Gibbs, who is the... I mean, you just talked about those numbers, the 20-yard...
If you need juice, you need Jemir Gibbs. You almost need him out there more if your offense isn't working. So that would be the gamble, I think. And then he also, he misses games. He has missed a handful. He's missed a few. I feel like he's, he's never played a 17 game season before. For real? Never. How about a 16 game season when that was the full season? 2019. 2019. Aha! But who he did it. 15, 13, 16, 14, 14. Also known as his worst. fantasy season ever, Jason. So here's what I'll say is that in the fifth round, I think he is a decent pick still, and you alluded to it, because he's going to be a solid running back who you can plug and play, and more often than not, I think he'll be okay. He definitely has a lot of these regression things, but he always has the built and upside of the Jamir Gibbs injury to launch him forward to where now he's a steel in the fifth round. Most people don't necessarily have that. I agree. However,
The one thing that I think is the scariest part about David Montgomery, and I think is the, like you buried the lead. It is the number one thing. As a David Montgomery manager in our League of Record, I was terrified. I don't think you mentioned it, but Frank Ragnow. Yeah, I did. I said the offensive coordinator is gone. They're all pro center. Yeah. Frank Ragnow is the highest rated run blocker over the last several years. He's a very good, well-rounded. player, but he is a run blocker, like elite run blocking center. That's why three years in a row, you've had double digit massive, like way more than double digit touchdowns from whoever their goal line back was, whether it was Jamal Williams or last two years David Montgomery. And it's like... Yeah, it's a big loss. You missed that big center run blocking monster, and all of a sudden, maybe you've got to get more creative around the goal line and you can't just run it up the middle, the same, which is what David Montgomery is doing. That's my biggest fear with him.
So I think his range of outcomes is very wide. I'm not out here saying it's a complete, David Montgomery is going to fail. I'm bringing his name up on this episode, this section, because he's becoming a higher risk, a more fragile type of a selection where he is in dress. He had 12 touchdowns last year, 13 the year before. You won't be happy with eight or six. Yeah, and eight. is like that's still a good year. What's weird, though, is I will say this. I still think when you look at who's behind him in the draft, there are running backs. If you're not a rookie and you're being drafted behind Montgomery, I think Montgomery is the best value between the fifth and seventh rounds. And what I expect. Checo Jones, Tyrone Tracy, Pollard. I mean, you could take your shot at Harvey or Judkins or Henderson. That's fine. By the time drafts come around, I think that those rookies will be ahead of.
Montgomery I think I think Judkins and you know all those guys when push comes to shove so yeah I mean TBD where the chips fall on on average draft position but yeah I mean there's a path I mean you don't when you have a running back that finishes high as he's finished last two years there is a clear path to regression there and I think that that was on the table last year probably brought up in the off season didn't happen no and then they were like even better Yeah, but there are some variables there, and we'll see how the Lions, I mean, the Lions offense, we're really kind of counting on that to be real, real good. All right, let's talk some values. Values. All right, this is one of my favorite areas for Fantasy is just players that are kind of being forgotten about, not necessarily players you go reaching foreign drafts, but guys that are dropping to the areas that they shouldn't be.
and where we feel they may be a steal in your drafts. You hit on a couple of value picks. It makes a tremendous difference to the depth of your team and your flexibility in making trades throughout the year and getting, you know, taking your team from, you know, being in the top half to being a top tier squad. Yeah, and I think one of the most important positions you could do that with is a running back. If you get a good value on a running back, that's, you know, going to solidify your... roster for a championship run. One of the guys, usually, most years, some of the values are in the veterans that no one wants to be caught holding the bag when they're no longer good. And so kind of like what I was just talking about with Montgomery, I think by the time the draft comes around, all these rookies will be drafted ahead of Montgomery. I think it might happen with this guy as well, who I think is a value where he's going in the draft right now. It's Joseph Mixon, Mike's.
favorite. I'll hit the button. You're hitting like the full name to see if you can like trick him. I, yeah. Joe Mixing is already triggering. You should, you should check out this Joseph mixing guy. He's 28 years old. And I think that especially with the addition of Nick Chubb being added to the roster, his ADP is not, it's not going north. Right now he's he's right up basically the beginning of the fifth round. And I could see it going lower. But when I'm there, I think it's a very good pick. And if you don't remember how good he was, last year, I mean, from weeks one through 11, he was the running back one. And that's not like weeks one through four. That's the majority of the season for fantasy season all the way up to week 11. He was averaging 23.3 fantasy points per game. He had over 100 rushing yards in seven of his first 10 games.
He's just a workload monster. He is tied with Kyron Williams for the fifth most weighted opportunities per game. And he had the fourth most total red zone touches. Keep in mind he missed three games and he had the fourth most. That wasn't like per game. That's total. You also have a scheme change here going from Bobby Slowick, who I think everyone loved two years ago and then last year, I don't know why his play calling was so bad, but it was so apparent and everyone knew it and they fired him. Very strange. And they're going to Nick Cayley, who is coming over, and he's basically more of a man gap scheme than the zone scheme that we saw last year. And if you look at the splits for mixing between zone and man gap, and this goes back including the Bengals, he is way better at the man gap scheme. So it's just, I think it's a good transition for him. Yards per carry 5.05 in man gap versus 3.71 in zone.
Yeah, exactly. And this is, this is a player who the, the Texans have given a ton of money. I mean, he, he is their lead back. And I feel like people are a little bit worried that, you know, now they're bringing in Chubb. Now this is going to be a rotation that's like a one, two punch. They paid Nick Chubb. pennies. Nothing. You know, this is J.K. Dobbins just went out and got $5 million. I don't have the number in front of me for what Nick Chub. I think he's got incentives up to that amount. Yeah, up to four point something. But like his actual guaranteed. Two and a half. Yeah. So half the money J.K. Dobbins got, you know, this is this is Joe Mixon's backfield. And also Nick Chub is 30 years old coming off of multiple injuries, a devastating knee injury. Yeah. So this is.
a guy I think is being forgotten how good he was last year. Well, 411 is a steal. He's going to stay a steal for me as well. I agree with you completely. The Packers with Josh Jacobs, the Texans with Joe Mixon, there were conversations last offseason that were centered around how good Devon Singletary was in Houston. And why would you go do this when Singletary could run well? Then they showed you the difference in offensive philosophy. Now, I think Mixon had to carry the load maybe a little bit more than they would have hoped. last year just with respect of digs injury and dell's injury but and he had his own injuries he's the guy for at least another full season and and you're not paying i mean where's jacobs going right now oh jacobs is much higher than that like i just it it does it blows my mind that this guy who is the number one running back in the second round he's the number one running back in fantasy for the first 11 weeks
Yeah, and then he got a- The meaning, right before the playoff start. Was it a high ankle sprain? Well, he had one early in the season, too. And then he got something else later. He re-aggravated it and dealt with something else. So there are risks, but not at 4-11 to me. Yeah, I mean, ironically, we're talking about a lot of the guys here in that fifth round area about who you would draft. I think that there is upside and safety in a volume monster. At running back, I want someone who I think, you know, is going to be in the top 15 running backs.
in total opportunities. And then you have the chance here that C.J. Stroud kind of bounces back and, you know, looks more like what we hoped he looked like last year. This is an offense that could be good. They're in a weak division. So there's a lot of ways that this could work for Joe Mixon. He also had quite a few big runs. I mean, I had them on my team. I was watching him a lot less here, a 59-yard run, a 45-yard run, 30-yard runs. Like, he had more breakaway runs than he eventually got caught. Right. You know, he didn't take them all the way to the house. But there were more explosive plays from him where, you know, I like the value there. It looks like his, he's RB 16 off the board on Underdog 17 on Sleeper. I have him ranked at 14. He's the perfect RB2 for any team. That's what's so nice. If you end up snagging like a...
you know, whatever, Gibbs or some high upside big play guy. You get the veteran to go out there and put up 85 yards in a touchdown. At the 4-5 turn where he's going, he can easily be your third running back. I have horrifying news. Oh, no. You're the highest. I am not the highest. Oh, no? But I am not the lowest. No, I am aware that I come in last on total current stats, but I still look at him as, I mean, obviously I brought him up because I think he is a, I'm moving him down. I think he's a value. Just because. Just because. Yeah, he is. He is. He's a value. This is why the Joseph thing. Get Joseph into his head. He's a fresh player. Just look at the stat lines from last year. I'm not always current where you guys' rankings are. And I was very surprised to see that. I did see that. I have a name that I'll bring up here in a minute. He is not living around the fifth round, though.
So we'll talk about somebody that is just barely being drafted that it's time to look. Give him another look. Well, last year, it was really, really rough for this running back. In fact, it's hard to argue that there was a bigger bust. There wasn't. I don't think there. I think he was the biggest bus. I mean, Christian McCaffrey. Doesn't matter. I got mixed and wrong. I got this guy right. That's true. Yeah. And no one stepped up. But he stepped down. It's Travis E.T.N. And he is here on the values episode. He's already accomplished the bust. People are so mad at Travis E.TN. It's crazy. I am one of them, Mike. Here's the nuts and bolts of what happened last year. He was coming off a finish at running back three overall. Over 1,000 yards, 58 receptions on 73 targets.
This is first round pick. It's the second round pick. And he ends up going from 15 points a game to 7.4 a game. And this was not an injury loss season. This was not, this was, I'm going out there every week and giving you half of what I gave you last year. This was RB 37 from a first or second round pick. And the burns are now swinging that pendulum to a place that is sitting. He's at RB 34 on Sleeper. And I think that's too high. Well, yeah, I don't. I don't. I think what's wild here is we are waiting for the dust to settle a little bit on Liam Cohen and what's going to happen at running back. And we're starting to see a little bit of what the plan might be. And so he's in no man's land in drafts now. But I think he has a value because right now, this is the starting running back for a team with a new offensive coordinator that I think we should start out pretty excited about. Yeah.
His offense, last year in Tampa Bay, you have two top 24 running backs. Your team that was second in running back fantasy points. Second in running back reception, something that ETN's proven he can do. First and total running back receiving yards. Putting Travis E.T.N. in a position where he's not just running it up the middle is important. Whenever we've seen Travis E.T.N. in space, that's where his special gifts. shine and he is a first round draft pick that went out and put up an RB17 and an RB3 season and then last year it's like last year could have been his last like Jacob's last season with the Raiders where people are like what in the world is going on and we're giving up sometimes seasons just go really really poorly and he it doesn't mean that Eton is going to stay the start of the whole year
But if you invest a ninth round pick on him and he does succeed in this offense because they build stuff around what he's able to do, you stole in your fantasy draft. And that's the thing is you're getting him at the lowest possible price. And Liam Cohen is a good offensive coordinator. He came out and talked about, you know, they don't want to trade Travis ETN. ETN is very excited about what they've done with the offensive line. They've invested in both free agency and the draft. You know, they were ranked 31 and 32 in run blocking. So you can go out and say, oh, you know, Travis ETN, you were a humongous bust. Yeah, that's true. You had no offensive line. You lost a bunch of offensive weapons and you lost your quarterback during part of the year. Throw the season at least partly out, in my opinion, and say if they name him the starter and they give him those opportunities, there's just no way for him to not deliver better than a ninth round selection. You can look at like.
Part of a downer for it is Tank Bigsby just looked like the better runner last year. And that's not to say Tank Bigsby was flawless last year. He was the better in between the attackers runner for sure. So it's, and he's running on, that's the same team that Tank is playing for. So that kind of hurts the optimism for Travis Etian. I think that is, is completely a part of it. But watching the way that Cohen has talked about Travis Etian thus far is. The market is wrong, I think. And I don't love Travis E.T. and the player, but I think that the market is wrong of guessing who's going to get the production. And guys, I mean, he's coming from Tampa Bay, right? We know like Bucky, but I think he liked Rashad White. Definitely. Guys, 3.7 a carry. Six and a half per catch. Oh, that sounds like. Who does that remind you of? That sounds like Travis E.T.N. Yeah, like Cohen's got to love that. If you put Rashad White.
on the team in place of Travis ETN, I think he'd be going ahead of the ninth round. Yeah, yeah, I think that's, and I don't think, I don't think that they're not that different. I don't think ETN's a worse runner than Rashad White. That's, that'd be really hard to do. Rashad, what, Rashad White managed to average those numbers with a much better offensive line. So, look, this is not, this is not, this is not make Travis ETN, you're my guy territory, because I know you guys will sneak him in like Bigsbees, but this is like, hey, you know, You just need to stay water with like the Bayshalt Tootin excitement and Tank Bigsby. Like if Coem, wow, I thought there was a sound problem. And it was you farting into the microphone. Well, I was like, oh, that was a glitch. No, it was just you. I said Bayshall Tootin. Yeah, it just happens. Just happened. What? Who was that? Is that Matt? Yeah, the child in the room. Yeah. Just that you found that too funny. To give you one more.
One more more quote, ETN said Thursday at minicamp that Liam Owens, Liam Cohen's offense has been getting him into a lot of space, puts him in a position to make plays. And then they came out, Sports Illustrated, John Shipley said he will start as the team's RB1. So you're going to get your first shot at success. And you look at those other two, you know, Tutin's going to have to overcome. Thank you. Being a rookie. And Biggsby is not as versatile in the passing game. So with the podcast needs. or Biggsby to yeah to be the starter we did we did confirm that that Travis ETN is an official footy award winner for last year's poopiest pants yeah he was yes he was the official winner so it did it's in the mail did he get it yet no it's in the mail still in the mail yeah most of the footies stay in the box they stay in the mail every day they're walking now opening that mailbox again
is today the day. So that's my value pick, Mike. You have you have a name that I feel like is like you have a great deal of conviction about this player. It has been building. He gets brought up a decent amount on this show, but I want to actually make a case for George Pickens of the Dallas Cowboys or as Jason refers to him. George that's a pretty first name based a pretty lazy nickname if you just take the last name it just helps me remember who it's just his name he's not a nickname he's George baseline stuff here he's 24 he's going into year for he only 24 he's only 24 his sophomore year was 1140 yards five touchdowns so yeah there was excitement for for this past season
with Fields and Russell Wilson, and it did not work out. You only had 300 yards, but Pickens appeared in 14 games. He had 900 receiving yards in 14 games, and NFL.com, they just put out a thing of players who lost the most yards because of penalty. It got called back. George Pickens is one of four players last year who had over 100 yards negated by penalty. Like, You tell me George Pickens in 14 games puts up 1,000 yards and 3. People are more excited about that. Yes, he has been inconsistent. I mean, he's a C last year, a D before that, C before that. Inconsistency. So it has, it comes in big games. I don't know if you want George being your 1, but he is just a nitro boost to.
to your fantasy lineup. He's been over 15 yards of reception each of his first three years. I've got one, I'm going to be on your team for a second. Okay. Welcome aboard. And give you something that. He said for a second. Well, the last time, so Dak was hurt last year. Yeah. He played a full season in 2023 as everybody's fantasy darling. I just want to know if you can remember off the top of your head how many touchdowns Brandon Cook scored for the Dallas Cowboys in 2023. because most people consider Brandon Cook's Dallas career to be kind of unremarkable, never in the headlines. Brandon Cooks was like, he had that stretch at the end of the year where he was catching a touchdown per game. I would guess I'm going to go seven. I'm going to go eight. He had eight. Eight touchdowns. Brandon Cooks had eight touchdowns. Back half of his career with Dak, across from C.D. Lamb. I just, the opportunity is right in front of you. In fact, the Cowboys.
have ranked in top 10 for total wide receiver fantasy points in five of the last six years. Dak Prescott is a good quarterback. In the absence of Blake Jarwin, they've thrown to the wide receiver position. And we all do this. Oh, well, he's playing with the best quarterback of his career. That is a very go-to move for fantasy analysts. It is so unbelievably true. At this point, though, for George Pickens to, who gets to go to play with Dak, who over the last three years, seventh in pass success rate, sixth in completion percentage, eighth in passer rating. Like, DAC is a good quarterback. From all accounts, everything is going very well. Well, that's because he hasn't been not targeted yet. As of right now. And then, like, where George is going in the draft and looking at all the players around him,
It's good players, but you have real question marks. Like Chris Olavee, okay, quarterback and health. Xavier worthy? I'd take my shot on pickings. Like Xavier worthy? Like Xavier worthy? I think. Maybe. Like maybe you want to be in unworthy. I have some scheme questions, but maybe you want to be on worthy. Pickens there. That's fine. Jalen Wattle, quarterback questions. Jameson Williams. That's a great pickings there. Jameson. That's a great pick. Chris Godwin, injury concerns. Jordan Addison. some quarterback questions and there was a tiny blur coming through about Jordan Addison if you recall back in 2024 I think it was he got citated for a DUI so there's some stuff going on with his trial so that's all still up in the air then right after that's Jerry Judy oh hey look another quarterback problem in this range of wide receivers there is there's not a lot of players with that level of upside in use Jameson and George Pickens who are wide receiver twos but they have
They're on offenses where we can feel good. Imagine rolling those two guys out together? You better have a one. On one team. But so point being, I'm very confident that George Pickens maximizes this year. Like I said, 900 yards last year with over 100 yards lost to penalty in 14 games. He was almost 1,200 yards the year before that. Having that on the resume, the 1100 plus, I mean, Jason, do you think he's priced right? Yeah, I mean, I look at the wide receiver two for Dak Prescott on a team that can't run the ball. And I think, yeah, that too. I think, yeah, that should be a top. They have Miles Sanders now. Should be a top 24 wide receiver if the wide receiver is good. So the question is, is George good. I think he's good, too. And the fact that he's only 24 years old, it goes a long way because he's not.
you know, we should not have seen the best of his career yet. I think that genuinely what gets in George Pickens way is going to be George Pickens. It's going to be. It's going to be you are, you are certifiably not in a position to be the one on this team. That is just, and he should. Which I think he, he should know it. I think he knows that when he's on the Steelers, he was the number one guy. And he's like, you will treat me like the number one. Not with Cady land there. You, you can certainly hope some of the on the field maturity.