Starts of the Week + Week 4 Breakdown, Air Yard Analysis - Fantasy Football Podcast for 9/30

I've got Minnesota. I think that being at home, they are, as you brought up yesterday, they're hop-skipping to jump away from being 3-0. And so they're a good team at home. And I think the Browns are probably going to be a little too, whenever you come off the type of performance that they had last week where you just...

You just humiliate a team. You dominate them so thoroughly, so easily. Sometimes you end up with that letdown that, oh, I think it's supposed to be easy. It's not going to be easy in Minnesota. If you had to start a tight-in from the game, Tyler Conklin coming off of 7 for 70 in a touchdown or Austin Hooper. Conklin.

All right. Hooper's always a shot at a touchdown here too. And obviously some nice high implied point totals, 26, 24 in this game. The Giants at 0 and 3 take on the Saints at 2 and 1 in New Orleans. I'm seeing a little game in here. Well, let's do it.

We're playing a game? Yeah, the DK Sportsbook line, by the way, Saints minus seven and a half at home. Over Under's 42. Who would you trust holding your newborn child more? Daniel Jones or James Winston. Oh, man. I think I've got to go James because he's not going to throw the baby and that's more where he turns the ball over. Right. Daniel Jones has a problem holding on to things. He's a fumbler. So I'm going on James here.

I'm going James. Okay. I think I will. James will keep the baby safe, but it won't look like he is. It will be awkward. He'll trip on a step or something. Oh, where's the baby? Oh, oh, I'm holding. Who would you trust more to help you move? So you got to have somebody come over and help you move. James or there's no way James is not breaking something.

Going through a doorway? Yeah. Oh, he's going to be super apologizing. Super apologetic, though. Oh, man, that's my bad. Yeah, I'll buy you a new one. Yeah, he'll run into something. But Daniel Jones just, he might be walking along the grass and then fall over. Yeah, that's true. I think I think if you're moving furniture, though, Daniel Jones is quicker. You got to go with the better athlete. And they're both athletic, but Daniel Jones is a better athlete. All right. Who would you trust to win this football game?

Oh, Daniel Jones or James Winston. Sean Peyton. I'm going to go with James Winston in this one. It's funny. I mean, Winston has been by lack of opportunity, he's been a very efficient touchdown thrower. Now, that does not mean that I would play him in fantasy. Just he has a low volume. And he's been throwing the touchdown pass he threw last week was the most James was to play in the history of his career.

Because he had no business throwing it, and now he's been rewarded with a touchdown. He has changed nothing. Right. I watch these games, and whenever he's getting sacked and being pulled to the ground, he'll still be like, I can make this throw, and you know, throw up the wobbler. Sometimes those have been intercepted and called back on penalties. James for fantasy purposes, I know week one, he was the quarterback 40, threw five touchdowns, but he has yet to hit 200.

passing yards. He's yet to hit 150. He's yet to hit 150 passing yards. Stay away from past catchers. You cannot play really anyone on the same side of the ball outside of Alvin Camara. Agreed. Let's move on to the other side. Daniel Jones has not thrown an interception through 103 pass attempts, which is impressive. Good for you, Daniel. It's coming this week. His name is Marchand Lattimore.

But, you know, Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, they didn't practice Wednesday. They're probably not going to play. Kenny Gulladay is in play just due to volume this week. I think that you are in a situation where you may get some smooth rounds. Oh, it's been too long. Some good Kenny G. I, yeah, I like him in this matchup. He leads the league in intermediate targets and receptions, believe it or not. And, you know,

That might be where the list ends. Evan Ingram? Yeah, Evan Ingram in this game, when you know that they didn't game plan, obviously that was Evan Ingram's first game back, and then they lose Sterling Shepard, and they lose Slate. It was kind of a hodgepodge and a mess last week in a very surprisingly low-scoring game against Atlanta. Coming in this week, I think the expectation is to not have those wide receivers, and Evan Ingram just has to be a big part of this game plan.

also playing from behind. You could get some garbage time. You could, and I'm just going to mention the name, and we can probably just leave it at that. Cadarious Tony, you might want to just throw them on the bench and see what happens. Wasn't it CJ Board last week that was heavily involved as well? Mm-hmm. Both of those guys? Saying that Tony will, if Shepherd is out, Cadarius Tony will likely go into the slot. And that is their first round.

He's the wide receiver best this year. We all liked to poo-poo the pick because I... Well, you mostly. I mean, I... Oh, no, I was... No, Jason was with it. You both mostly. It didn't seem like the wisest use of your draft capital to select Cadarius Tony there. But that doesn't take away from the fact that he is a pretty electric athlete. Like, his quick twitch ability is...

is really incredible. So something could happen in this game. But that's only if, like, these other guys are out. I like that, though. He has been the squeaky wheel, the first round pick. He has been very upset about his lack of touches and involvement. So if there was ever a time to give it a shot when you're heavy underdogs on the road, like why not put the ball on his hands and see some of that return on investment in the... It feels like something that Dave wants to get done.

Well, then let's get it done. It's me. James. All right, let's move on. Starts of the week. All right, why don't we kick it off with Jason's start of the week? Well, a quarterback had to be done. Had to. This is maybe the game of the decade. Tom Brady going back to New England. He only needs 68 yards to break. What's that? Bold. Yes, thank you. Well, here's the reality is. Quarterback two?

Yes, the quarterback two is going up against a very difficult New England matchup. They have only allowed 479 total passing yards on the season. If you look a little deeper, it's James. It's Zach Wilson. It's Tua. Brady knows this system. This is goat versus owl. And goat is going to win. Is Belichick the owl? Yes. For wisdom. Yeah, that's the thing. That's the thing. That's the thing. What do you mean that's the thing? That's a thing. Belichick is the owl.

But is a goat versus an owl thing? What makes it a thing? What makes it a thing? Like, I don't know. What makes things a thing? I don't know. Like, we've been doing football for a long time. And, like, me and Mike are looking at each other. Like, we don't know that's a thing. I'm still trying to figure out what is the thing. Is it that Belichick is an owl or that the animal matchup of a goat versus an owl is a thing? No, it's that Belichick is the owl. Oh. Yeah. That's what it is. I'm just going to accept it and I'm going to move on.

Well, you've given me the courage to play Aaron Rogers as my start of the week this week against Pittsburgh. Look, they're toast. This team is toast. I'm sorry. They are. Pittsburgh? Pittsburgh's toast. And on the defensive side, you've seen Derek Cargo out and have a game against them. They've given up all of their touchdowns through the air. Aaron Rogers looks like he's in an absolute groove as he's returned to form, which is form equals.

targeting Devante Adams on every play. They have the fifth most fancy points allowed to the wide receiver position. Aaron Rogers needs to be in your lineup against Pittsburgh, and you need to change your mental outlook on starting players against Pittsburgh. And I'm going with Jalen Hertz, Philadelphia Eagles quarterback for now against the Kansas City Chiefs. This is a matchup that has been working throughout the season. They're giving up over 26 points a game. Jalen Hertz was objectively bad.

in that matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. So bad, in fact, that he finishes the quarterback 10 in fantasy football because fantasy football is not real life football. And Jalen Hertz will still be good for fantasy. And I like him in this matchup.

Running back, I know it's been back-to-back bad weeks and a horrendous Chicago Bears look, but David Montgomery is not going anywhere. No matter who the quarterback is, they're going to have a much better week against Detroit. Detroit is fifth in giving up fantasy points to the running back, and that is including the fact that Baltimore this last week just decided to not use their running backs. David Montgomery absolutely must play. And honestly, he should.

He should have a humongous game. And the Bears, their only chance at really succeeding and kind of washing the ills off of what happened with Justin Fields last week is to say, let's establish it. Let's get the game going through David Montgomery. Man, they need to get some first downs. That is helpful. It's helpful for yardage.

All right. I think Joe Mixon is going to end up the running back one on the week. I'm going to take him as my start of the week against Jacksonville tonight. We were talking unrealized air yards. Unrealized opportunities is an area where Joe Mixon the last couple of weeks underperformed his opportunities. His workload is delight. Phil Jacksonville's 29th against opposing fantasy running backs. Oh, Captain, my captain, Joe Mixon tonight. And I'm calling my shot on this is where you're happy you drafted Jonathan Taylor for the Indianapolis Colts.

Miami, though they're supposed to be a fantastic defense, they're allowing 136 rushing yards a game. That is the sixth most in the NFL. They were gouged by teams that should not score by the running back in fantasy. They were gouged by the Buffalo Bills running backs. And then the barber just took them to the salon for a quick snip where Peyton Barber was like top five on the week.

So Johnny Taylor, I'm calling it. This is the week that he scores, and he's back in the good graces for fantasy football. I love your starts because I really want all of them to happen. I really want Jalen Hertz and Jonathan Taylor like, let's go. Let's get this stuff going. At wide receiver, Scary Terry, if you've been playing him, you've been mostly disappointed at a great week two, bad week one, bad week three. Atlanta's defense looks better, but they're not. They're not good. They're banged up in the secondary.

and they're not getting pressure on the quarterback. Heineke has been willing to air it out, has been hyper-targeting Scary Terry. And I think Tara McLaurin has a monstrous top five wide receiver game this week. All right, wide receiver. I'm going to go with Odell Beckham Jr. Okay. The over-under, it's delightful in Minnesota. It should be a shootout. Minnesota 29th against the posing fantasy wide receivers. They're allowing a ridiculous, 75% completion rate.

Patrick Peterson has not made all the difference in Minnesota. 10.1 yards per attempt, both number one in the league. Beckham should have a great game and be targeted a ton. And I'm going with the stack of Jalen Hertz. I'm going with Devante Smith. We highlighted him at the beginning of the show. Last week was tough in his matchup against Diggs. The rookie looked a little bit overmatched, but he's still 23% of the targets. The air yards are there. They haven't.

fully landed just yet. There's a 54 point over under in that matchup. I think that Smith has a bounce back game. And at tight end, where it's always stinky, I'm going to Evan Ingraham. I think you can grab him, pick him up off the waivers. He is too necessary in this game. It's not the best matchup in the world against the Saints, but he had 55% of the snaps last week.

And with Sterling Shepard expected to miss, Darius Slayton, like, he's going to be involved. He led the team in targets last year. So I think he'll have a very, very good game. And we talked about the, would you play the Dalton Schultz's of the world? I would pick up Evan Ingraham, the last man standing there and play him. No, if Baltimore is dead last against opposing tight ends through three weeks. Noah Fant is more necessary than ever with the now.

A devastating injury to KJ Hamler following the Judy injury. And you're not going to win on a low passing volume game against Baltimore the way you did last week. So Noah Fantle, I think is a really strong play this week. And I'm going with another streamer this week. It's Dawson Knox. Houston has given up top 10 points all three weeks to the tight end position. He's run the ninth most routes.