Starts of the Week + Week 4 Breakdown, Air Yard Analysis - Fantasy Football Podcast for 9/30

5,000 yard, Matt Ryan, airing it out, tons of yards that we've seen in the past. It would be a lot easier to expect him to return to the mean if there wasn't a change, a couple of significant changes on the offense, which does bring up the Calvin Ridley problem. Through three weeks, he's been the wide receiver 61, 17, and 36. He has not been a wide receiver one yet this year.

You know, he's only been a wide receiver two one time. So is it adjustment time for Calvin Ridley expectations, how you view him rest of season for your team? Do you expect the team to figure it out between him and Kyle Pitts and Cordero? I mean, those are the three passing game weapons that they have right now, which it's not working out.

Yeah, I mean, I definitely think my draft season views on Calvin Ridley have changed, but they changed rather quickly. You know, the airing it out, giant monstrous season, that looked done in week one just because of finally seeing what the scheme is, how they want to run the ball, how they're throwing it. And it doesn't seem like Atlanta wants to really air it out. They are protecting their bad defense.

you know, on the offensive side of the ball, which is probably a smart decision coaching wise, but not great for fantasy. So, yeah, I would say that Calvin Ridley is a, you know, he's kind of one of those wide receiver 10 to 15. Back end one wide receiver two, I think the rest of the way. Don't overreact to three games where he's not a quarter, a wide receiver one, because his talent is still there. If you can get the value, though, for what you draft in him for, would you ship him out?

thinking that this is if you believe the expectations have changed would you trade him um yeah i mean if you could get the value of would you trade it for mike williams oh man mike williams is the worst name to bring up in trades because i know i would not trade him for mike williams on the on the flip i would do i would do the reverse

But maybe, I mean, it feels crazy right now. Obviously, Mike Williams scorching the earth. And we all believe it's legitimate. It's not just a three-game sample that's going to go away. About to do it on Monday night football. Yeah, he very well might. But no, I mean, if you watch the games, Calvin Ridley still looks good. I agree with you. The scheme change, the coach change, missing Julio. Things have, you know, changed around him.

He's still, I think he's going to have a very, very good season the rest of the way. He's still averaged nearly 10 targets a game. He's a 29 targets through three weeks. He's still seeing a bunch of opportunity. It's not the same opportunity that we were hoping and expecting, but you still should be playing Calvin Ridley. Kyle Pitts has 17 targets through three weeks. Is he just, are you just waiting still for Kyle Pitts to go magma in one of these games?

I think he will go magma at some point. Is this the week? Man. I have Atlanta winning this game. I'll just throw that out there. I think they'll win the game at home. I don't know that it's the week, but at this point, you are, you're hoping that he becomes the Evan Engram rookie season through three weeks. Cordero Patterson has as many receptions as DeAndre Hopkins and one fewer scrimmage yard than Alvin Camara. Flexworthy in week number four?

Yeah, I mean, because of how much work is coming in the passing game, I do think he's flex-worthy even in what appears to not necessarily be the best matchup defense-wise. I would throw him in a flex. Gibson is the running back 17 on the year so far, Terry McLaren. We're going to talk about him later. He's always in your lineup. And Logan Thomas seems very safe to put into your lineup every week. All right, we'll move on. Like I said, we'll talk about McLaren more later. Houston.

At 1 and 2, traveling to Buffalo to take on the bills at 2 and 1. Drafking Sportsbook line. Oh, my gosh. 16 points. The bills minus 16. The over under is 47. I mean, last week, the bills were three and a half point home favorites against Washington, which I said on the show blew my mind. Like, it made no sense to me. But it was almost as though the sports books were waiting to see what we were waiting to see from Buffalo.

Well, they saw it, and now they're 16-point home favorites against Houston. We're back in. So, you know, what are the difficult fantasy decisions here? Diggs, Allen, Sanders, Beasley, they're all fine to play. Dawson Knox? Yes. Is he in consideration? He absolutely is in consideration. Tight-in for the bills? Yeah. Currently, the Texans are giving up over 15 points a game to the tight-end position. And...

I mean, 16-point favorite. They're a 16-point favorite, and yet with the over-under, the Buffalo Bills have a team-implied total of over 31 points. You've got to get in on this. You're getting in at running back then? I am. I think that Zach Moss is a perfectly fine play. He's been a top 20 guy the past two weeks. The touchdown opportunities have been there for him. What will be tough is that,

Clearly, by the end of the week, not everyone on this team will pay off for fantasy football. But, you know, I was just talking about the probability that is fantasy football. And there is a high probability that there is a lot of excitement and a lot of fantasy action for the Buffalo side of the football this week against the Texans. So I want in.

With all of them, I would take a chance. So when you say all of them, I think all three of us would put Zach Moss ahead right now in that backfield. If you look at the snaps. I'm not counting Devin Singletary. That's what you mean. That is where I was getting. Would you play? There's barely room for one running back on the Buffalo Bills. But the snap counts have gone completely different. You know, the arrow up and the arrow down, just straight up makes an X when it comes to Devin Singletary and Zach Moss.

Zach Moss missed week one. We thought it was a healthy scratch. It wasn't. They said it was more unhealthy because of some injuries. In healthy? The word is unhealthy, dear friend. Yeah, tomato tomato. So, yeah, Zach Moss is the running back to have there. Brandon cooks and no one else for Houston. Is that an okay policy here? That's always an okay policy. The bill's defense is so good.

It's always an okay policy, and I know he's been back to back to back. We've got the NBA Jam rules. He's been great for three straight weeks, one of only four wide receivers all in the top 24 for all three weeks. I don't want to play him this week. I'm fine with it. I think garbage time, there will be lots of it, and he will get plenty of. Bills are just so dominant. They have. They're only giving up 19 fantasy points a game to opposing wide receivers, but how is Cooks not 15 of those 19?

Yes, I don't disagree with that. The Lions at 0 and 3 take on the Chicago Bears at 1 and 2. Draft King Sportsbook line here, bears minus 3 over under his 42 points. Andy Dalton did return to practice yesterday. Uh-oh. And I have a question in here that I find repugnant. I think Kyle O'Roggan wanted to know, he said, would you rather have Guns Mahoney or Matt Nagy as your head coach? What?

This is an unfair thing for Guns Mahoney. I mean, I would choose Dan Campbell. How dare you? You know. Have you seen that guy? Seven days a week. He's ripped. He's a legitimate head coach that I respect, which I cannot say the same thing about Matthew Nagy. The line should have beat the Ravens last week. Let's not forget that. They should have won the game against the Ravens last week. They are competing on a weekly basis. They had a halftime lead against the Packers.

Before the season, I believe that the Lions would reach seven wins. They have none. So maybe they just compete. It's going to be tough now. Maybe they just compete and never win. But I do think they will compete in this one as well. I am not going to go so far as to make them the almost upset. But they're going to almost upset a lot of teams this year. That being said, their defense statistically gives up a lot of fantasy points. David Montgomery.

If there's a week, you can feel confident in him. It's this week. And then Alan Robinson and Darnell Mooney, I brought it up on the Green Room show yesterday. They basically have season-long stat lines that look like a nice game, but they have it over three games. So neither player has produced. Mooney has had a better season so far, but hasn't scored, I guess just better season by way of receptions and yards. Robinson snuck into the end zone and has more targets.

Robinson feels like you have to play him in this matchup. Yeah, I would say that. I would say that Robinson is someone you should play. Obviously, it's going to depend on who his quarterback is. I think that we would all agree for fantasy purposes. Andy Dalton, if he is the quarterback, would be better for the other pieces, not necessarily outscoring the potential Justin Fields if they actually use his legs. But there were so many plays, you know, Mike and I were watching a lot of them where it was, I mean, it was.

half not his fault because the pass rush was coming through, but we also recognize that if Dalton was in there, he probably gets rid of that ball in a hurry. He probably takes the first read and just takes it. Yeah. On the other side of the ball, DeAndre Swift has 19 receptions. He leads the NFL in yards after catch, and Dan Campbell said, quote, you're going to see a lot more of Swift moving forward. Who! Why not? I mean, he's your best weapon on this offense, bar none. Mm-hmm. Try to trade.

Sequin Barclay and another piece for Swift. Wow. Unsuccessful. Unsuccessful. Yeah. I don't think anybody wants to let go of him right now. You know, we had one of the managers in our League of Record decided to ship out Derek Henry before the big Derek Henry week. And it was on the, you know, his remaining running backs were Daryl Henderson and D'Andre Swift. And now it looks like maybe that was worth it. I mean, you know, Henry's obviously a stalwart, but if you...

I think you can just pencil Swift in safely in your lineup every week. RB1 potential every week. And who knows? This guy could end up the number one running back this year. Say Swift through three weeks at least, but it currently looks like he will be the absolute best draft at the running back position. You're going to answer this the way, I think you will. But with the injury, if you're going to miss Christian McCaffrey for two, three more weeks, would you rather have Swift and McCaffrey rest of season?

Ooh. No, I would not trade Swift. Okay. T.J. Hawkinson, last week, somehow only two for ten? Is that right? He had ten targets? Just let it go. No, no, no. It was two for ten yards. He played 100% snaps. He caught 100% of his targets. Which were two? Yes. Yeah, it was. You know. Just throw it away. Yeah, I mean, obviously. That is an area the bears have been very good against. So you may need to cap your expectations this week.

Yeah, I mean, the Bears so far this year, I hope it was because of how bad they were last year. I know they were one of our most targeted teams to play the tight end against last year. In the small sample size so far this year, they haven't given up big plays. But I do think Hawkinson is obviously, you throw last week away is going to be great full season. This isn't over under of 42 points, and I'd be taking the under.

The Panthers at 3-0 take on the 2-1 Dallas Cowboys in Dallas. DK Sportsbook has the Cowboys minus 4. Over-under is 50 and a half points. This game seems prime to give you, I don't know, give you some action in the fantasy world. This game is fascinating. Like this is, and not just, I mean, you've got a lot of fantasy football pieces, but I'm talking real-life NFL. Carolina Panthers, 3-0, one of the best stories heading into the early season. But they've...

They beat up the Jets. They beat up a James Winston-led New Orleans offense. And then they took down the general, which was their only road win. I mean, that's a difficult thing to do. Take down General Mills and his first start here. So are the Carolina Panthers for real? We will get to find out against the Dallas Cowboys. Andy's shaking his head here. He's out. Dallas is going to win by two touchdowns.

That's what I think happens in this game. Not only is there are a lot to find out about the truth of the Panthers here, but there is against Cowboys as well. The Panthers offense has been doing enough, and the Cowboys defense looks like it might be fixed.

I'm still so skeptical. We'll see. A game of skepticism on these two teams. This is a game of skepticism, but excitement. It'll certainly be the game I'm probably paying attention to the most in that morning slate. Z. Cooper, Lamb, in your lineup. Are you willing to roll the dice with Dalton Schultz this week after the nice week last week? I mean, it's tough because.