Draft Strategies + ADP Risers & Fallers, The Big Salad - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/30

you'll always get them. If you go higher than that, you're missing out on better players in the seventh round, in the sixth round, and sacrificing those for someone that you could have gotten later. And this happens in the NFL draft. The certainty of, I said that really slowly, certainty. The certainty of that gets far more ambiguous the later the draft goes. So saying that you definitely get a better player in the sixth round, then you get the eighth round, becomes far less certain. You're way down in the draft.

I mean, you don't see a world where Gabe Davis is clearly going ahead of Al-Lanzard. He is. He's going in the eighth round right now. So two rounds ahead. There is, it's 50, 50 in my mind whether Lazard or Gabe Davis have a better season. So that two-round gap is, it doesn't matter to me. And Luzard's an eighth-round pick in baseball right now too. So that fits with the two-round rule that you just said. You could go sixth. Yeah, I mean, get your guy.

We always recommend getting the guy that you want and being happy with your team, but we definitely want you to maximize your roster. We've been doing so many best ball drafts around here, Kyle and I, and whenever we make the decision, like, oh, I really want Tim Patrick. This just happened to me. I wanted Tim Patrick. I had Russell Wilson. I wanted to complete the stack.

And I was looking, I kind of needed another quarterback. Justin Fields was on the board, but I really wanted Tim Patrick. And I made the decision to just wait and continue playing the ADP game. I wasn't going to take Patrick one round ahead. And I took Justin Fields and then I still got Tim Patrick. Those things are the ways that you maximize your roster. Obviously, you're gambling a little bit, but that's why you need to factor in ADP when you're...

you know, your platform's ADP when you're making these decisions because they affect the average fantasy guy tremendously. Well, and we're going to, especially in basketball where the ADPs are just sitting in front of you every single draft. We're going to talk more about some of the trends in best ball ADP here shortly. More importantly, I asked the question why the mustache for the cops. Some trace it back to the old west.

This makes so much sense, by the way. We've got an answer. And the ornate mustaches were common in the 19th century. Wyatt Earp. Yeah, I mean, rural police forces especially traced much of their terminology and tradition back to the frontier sheriffs. Yeah. And wear that facial hair to honor the sheriffs. That is such not true because if they were such not true, as I say, if they were really honoring where that heritage of those great sheriffs came from, I want to see.

A modern day-handlebar mustache on a police officer. Yeah, I mean, I think that some of those do exist, but it's- They're in Canada. It's a lot of work. With the Mounties? Oh, the Mounties definitely have hand-ball. They go hand-in-bars? Yeah, with a hat like that, I think it's law. I like my mustache even more thinking about Wild West. I'm a big fan. Oh, you need to get your mustache a little bigger if you're, if you're going to go Wild West homage.

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Best Ball Breakdown, presented by Underdog Fantasy. All right. Every week leading up to the season, we're giving tips, we're giving insights, we're giving observations for playing best ball and underdog fantasy. I did a few drafts this week, actually. I mentioned getting Mark Ingram with the final pick, and then the next day we get more news about a potential Alvin Camara suspension. Delighted by that, because I needed, like we have a bunch of articles up on the website for best ball.

And we also have that ideal amount of running backs and wide receivers and quarterbacks that you should have on your basketball teams that correlated to victory, right, to winning these competitions. And I really needed one more running back. And that was the last pick of the entire draft. Yeah, no, that was great. If you're talking about, I know this isn't the information we're giving, but since this is the foot clean listening, you know who I think is a great, I've seen them basically available at your last pick in most of these drafts.

And there will come a time where news changes, and then he will definitely not be available with your last pick. If you're doing dress right now, grab Will Fuller in your very last round. Because if he's, he'll sign somewhere, he will. And as soon as he signs somewhere, he's not going to be there in your 18th round. So that's a little tip. Were we talking about Will Fuller the other day, Kyle? About, like, wondering what the heck's going on with this guy? Yeah, there's news that he's...

contemplating what he wants to do with life and football. Yeah, I did. He wants to play it, Kyle. After Jason's advice. When someone brings money and needs a wide receiver, who's out there right now? A team will need a wide receiver. You're not going to go after Odell Beckham with his injury. I mean, to be fair, Willful or wasn't even out there last year. Well, I mean, he's never, that is an issue. He's never out there. But if you get four or five games. So I mentioned average draft position. If you're playing basketball,

Look, you do those drafts. The ADP is sitting right in front of your face, right? So players are making decisions, playing the game, playing the gamble that Jason's talking about. And there are ebbs and flows. It's like a market, right? I mean, players move around all the time and you're playing the ADP game trying to get ahead of the curve. And as the average draft position rises and falls, you can miss out.

on players that were values, right? Like, you know, James Connor was going in the fifth round of best ball drafts for a long time. Now he's in the third round. Still a value. But not as good. Yeah, maybe. And players, you know, they can get hyped up. You get a piece of news that comes through. You get entire teams that are impacted. The Browns, for example, all the pieces when you start talking about a Deshaun Watson suspension are, you know, lowering in best ball drafts.

I wanted to just look at a few of the players kind of comparing mid-May average draft position to this week. So it's like a month and a half, Jason. Okay. Matt Ryan is one of the players that has moved up. He's moved from the quarterback 22 to the quarterback 20. That's a full round higher. And the Colts favored to win the AFC South, you know, the front runners in the division.

What's a takeaway for you? Maybe you can grab Ryan as your QB2 a little bit later? Yeah, I mean, if he's moved up a full round, I haven't personally been crazy bullish on Matt Ryan, but being quarterback 20, I would personally rather have him at the peak of his value, meaning before when he was not moving up higher. The underdog is a four point per passing touchdown league.

Matt Ryan's not going to be running in a bunch of touchdowns. So I think this is, you know, negative for his value. Confidence has gone up in Matt Ryan recently. It has gone down for Patrick Mahomes. Now, we mentioned him as a potential bust. Coincidence? Maybe not, but he moved from the beginning of the fourth back to the four-five turn. Any thoughts on, you know, are people just afraid?

Of Patrick Mahomes, is he a potential value if the ADP continues to drop? Yeah, I mean, when I was anti-Patrick Mahomes, it was entirely 100% based on the ADP. And really, that was in more redraft leagues where he's in the third round. If he's dropping to the fifth round, much more interesting. Much more interesting. And unlike in years past, in years past, if you wanted to stack with Patrick Mahomes, you had to pay up for Kelsey or pay up for Hill.

And thankfully you knew that those guys would get the targets, but right now there are cheap options later in the draft to take your shot on. You know, if you think Juju Smith-Schuster is going to break out and be 130 target guy for this offense, well now you can affordably get a Patrick Mahomes stack if he's dropping to the fit. This one was maybe the most interesting move for me. Travis E.T.N. in the last month and a half has moved from the running back 22.

to the running back 17, up almost two full rounds in best ball. Now, he's ranked at that 22 spot in our consensus rankings, but now maybe getting into the too expensive territory. There's still a lot of chatter about what James Robinson's availability will be at some point during the year. Do you think that this ADP movement with ETN just relates to him being young, explosive, and unseen on a field before, and the potential? Yeah.

I would expect Travis E.T.N. to continue to move the longer that James Robinson is out, the more that it seems like he's going to be the guy. But news is going to change over the course of this off season with Travis E.T.N. It's funny because what Travis E.T.N. does this year doesn't change based on where you're drafting him in your drafts. But you've got to pay attention to the news cycle because it's when it looks bad for Travis E.T.N. That's when you want to draft him.

Is that makes sense? No, it does. And it's too expensive for me at this price. Yeah, because there's a lot of question marks. I still, even to this day, there are plugged in beat reporters that genuinely feel confident. Like, I don't know. James Robinson will be back. James Robinson is the RB one for this team when he gets back. They're not talking about the injury a lot. They're more talking about the depth chart and just, yeah, James Robinson's the guy. Yeah. I mean, coming off of his injury is really tough. But the more Travis E.T.N. costs.

That risk of him not even being the starter is dramatic. Some reactionary movement. Cameron Brayt moved from undrafted to the 14th, 15th round. He's a player we brought up with Gronk's retirement. You know, a TD or bus type of player. I think I said he had five catches or seven catches in five games without Gronk. So you're not getting volume from Cameron, Bray. I'm not chasing Cameron Brate, neither is Jason and the fart sound. Yeah.

Cordero Patterson has been down more than 15 picks over the last month and a half. Could be valuable as an RB3 on your roster. I do see him drop. He dropped in our mock draft and redraft as well. Yeah, if he's getting to 100 overall, the running back 32, he is too important to the team and was obviously very good last year for fantasy. So nobody wants the old guy on a bad team. But everybody wants.

more fantasy points than what you're drafting. And that's what Cordero is right now. Paris Campbell, who's been running exclusively with the first team, wide receiver for the Colts. I have to remind you. Three seasons, about eight games played total in three years, something like that. But he's running with the first team, and you know it's Michael Pittman and on that Indianapolis offense. So people are kind of going around that news and looking at him as a later round flyer because,

He can beat out Alec Pierce. He could beat out Ashley Doolin. Ashley Doolin. What did I say? Ashley. Ashland Doolin. I think the Paris Campbell news is why Matt Ryan has been going high. I have always been pessimistic towards Paris Campbell. So maybe that's why I'm not buying. I mean, obviously if Paris Campbell did the Devante Parker thing and just actually had a good breakout season four years into his career.

Then, yeah, Matt Ryan is going to be great. And Paris Campbell, you get that cheap stack. That's going to work out great. I am pessimistic. I don't think Paris Campbell ever gets it done, in which case that's why I'm not high on Matt Ryan. And the last one here, Trailing Berks has dropped from wide receiver 34 to wide receiver 40. Confidence in Berks has proportionally gone down with the confidence in Robert Woods that has risen with his health. You know, there are other rookies even now going behind him. Chris Olavé, for example.

he's no longer the first wide receiver off the board. Is there a point where this slide is too far and you will be in on a later trailing Berks? Are you, are you, how are you feeling? Because I know you were a, I was, you're a trailing truther. Yes, I was. But the truth, Berks. Yeah, no. That means late in the show. Yeah, it is. I'm happy about that. I liked it. Thank you, Al. I liked it too.

Oh, man. Duceus. Oh, man. Treylin Berks is someone that I think was very talented. He checked a ton of boxes for me in the pre-draft, pre-NFL draft system and then inherited such a great landing spot having A.J. Brown leave that I was very, very bullish. But the report's out of camp. I mean, one, he's not there. He's not practicing. He's not available. This is not the head coach that.