Draft Strategies + ADP Risers & Fallers, The Big Salad - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/30

There are wide receivers that are just good that you know are good in rounds three, four, five, six. They're super involved because there's so many more wide receivers to a team than there are running backs. And so you end up taking a mediocre running back over a good wide receiver and that hurts you in fantasy. So if I don't take a running back the first two rounds, I am probably going more towards the zero RB strategy. Maybe I take one in the third, but I'm going to still load up on wide receivers. And hopefully you.

You have two of the best wide receivers in the first two rounds. You just need to make sure that you have a strength. Don't undo your strength by drafting weaker running backs over better wide receivers. There's an article on the website titled, Are We Good at Drafting Mid-R Round Running Becks? The TLDR of that article is no. Yeah. We're not good at it. Now, on the mock draft episode, you know, James Connor went in the third round. Mm-hmm. Great pick. Because you made it. Well, yeah.

Yeah. It was great. Who did I take in the third? I think Elijah Mitchell was my fourth round pick. David Montgomery. David Montgomery in the third. So that's what you're looking at as potential RB-1s for that roster if you were to go right into running back after the first two rounds. Here's a follow-up, though, kind of the inverse question from Duke Silver 25. Is it crazy to start with your first three picks as running backs?

Because you could go, Dalvin Cook, and then pick up Aaron Jones in the second and then James Connor in the third round. Yeah, I mean, I, I, here's here's something that people should understand. There are so many ways to successfully draft in fantasy. ZeroRB works. You can win massive tournament championships doing that and not drafting your first running back till round eight, loading up on running backs early like this, the first three picks. This can work as well. It's really a matter of.

taking the best players that are available to make the biggest impact. I think I like, in my experience, when I've drafted, it's not common, but when I've gone running back, running back, running back, because there's just, wow, this guy shouldn't be there. And I have, if I'm confident, I have three studs, I really enjoy the rest of the draft. Because I don't worry about running back pretty much at all from then on out. I think that helped the strength of the second half of my draft on Tuesday.

was I went three running backs in rounds two, three, and four, and felt like I had carte blanche the rest of the draft because I felt like I had a lot of depth. I, you know, sure, anybody can win any different way. I definitely, on this show, we've talked about it extensively. It's very hard to find running backs that get consistent volume that, you know, you're going to need depth at the position. Whether you draft them in a row or not, you're going to need depth at running back.

between buy weeks and injuries, people are going to miss weeks. So I'm with you. I think that, you know, I don't go into a draft and say I have to take three running backs to start it, but if I end up there, I'm not, you know, freaked out for the rest of my draft. There are wide receivers that you can, you can piece it together at wide receiver much easier than middle round running backs or late round running backs. You know, the people that win with the

late RB strategy. You have to hit. I mean, you have to make the right call. You might see championships won by those teams, but you don't see everyone where they don't come to fruition either. And it's difficult to identify those guys. Yeah, I mean, obviously, if you drafted some of the wide receivers that got injured last year and then you didn't have any running backs, you know, some of that is a little bit out of your control. You still have to draft the right players.

No matter what strategy. But if you go running back, running back, running back to start, now you get to shotgun. There are so many wide receivers in those middle rounds that have a wide range of outcomes that, you know, a D.K. Metcalfe, Deontay Johnson, those type of players that they could be great, but you're worried about the quarterback situation. They're not all going to be great and they're not all going to be terrible. So if you shotgun wide receivers the rest of your draft, you're going to get Mike Williams in the fifth? Yeah. You're going to hit on a couple of them.

Let's go with an Instagram question from day long. He says, how do we feel about the walrus this season? I have kind of gone on a roller coaster with the walrus. When I first started the Las Vegas Raiders out, I was surprised how high the walrus was for me. Darren Waller still looked like a very good option at tight end.

The longer the time has gone on and you think about, okay, you're, Darren Waller has completely succeeded on the back of massive target share. That is, that is why he's been so good is because he has just been a target monster for the position at tight end. His target share 2019, 2020, 2020, 2021 was 24%, 28% and 23% in those games played. The,

corresponding next highest teammates target share is 14%, 15% last year Hunter Renfro was up to 21%. You got a guy in town here who's going to, like, he is the lead dog. Devante Adams is going to have the highest target share. And if Devante Adams comes in with a 25 plus percent target share, a 30% target share, you know, like Devante Adams has been accustomed to, Darren Waller is the number one guy that's going to take a hit on this offense.

Yeah, it's tough. You look at those two and you say, well, maybe that's the best combo in terms of passing options in the NFL. But Waller's success came when he was competing with Nelson Aguilar or Tyrell Williams in terms of target competition. So, you know, you can certainly make, he can have a great season, even if the target share is reduced. If he gets into the end zone nine times like he did in 2020,

as opposed to three times like he did in 2019. I mean, that's a, for him to finish number three and number two at the position in back-to-back years, but have that kind of a difference in touchdown totals, you know, there's different ways to make a great season. Yeah, I think the reality here is that Darren Waller is going to be good this year. He's not, he's not going to disappear. Obviously, coverage will be easier for him because of Devante Adams. He'll be good.

Where's he being drafted right now? That's what I was going to bring up. He's being drafted at the top of the fourth round right now. And he is not, Darren Waller is not going to be an elite difference maker. Like he's not going to be Travis Kelsey this year to the rest of the tight ends. He's not going to be someone that just completely dominates every single week at tight end. Does it mean you just pass on him and you pass on like a kiddle too? Do you believe that about George Kittle? George Kittle. He's not a positional advantage either.

Because I think they're going, aren't they going pretty close together? Yeah, George Kittles a couple spots ahead, like 308 versus 401. So they're right there. And when you're on the board there, you're talking about guys, you know, James Conner's at the three-four turn. You've got Deontay Johnson, Terry McLorn, D.K. Metcalfo. Yeah, you can take Mike Williams instead of Darren Waller if you wanted to. Yeah, there's a lot of other players that I think are going to make a bigger impact in those rounds than the impact Darren Waller will make. It's not to say he's going to be bad.

to take a onesie position, the tight-in position that isn't a true elite difference maker the way he's been in the past, it's probably a mistake for fantasy. Okay. All right. Instagram question for Mr. Fletcher 18. Does Andy have a mustache because of Top Gun? Great question. If you have been watching, you might watch YouTube and say, Andy has a mustache.

It's an appropriate thing to say. The reason you would say that is because you look at it and you're like, okay, I see a mustache. Now, you don't have a mustache according to your wife, right? Because you're not allowed to have a mustache. I did slowly shave the surrounding beard one, like one attachment lower at a time. One click. Until she noticed.

Oh, she has finally noticed. Oh, yeah. Okay. Yeah, eventually. And I did. I even had a whole morning once I made the final click. I had a whole morning where I was just conveniently like covering my face. Like I'm putting the shirt on and she walked in the room and I didn't pull it all the way on or I like had the towel in front of my face. I remember that morning because when you came into the studio, it was like, oh my gosh, you have a mustache now. And which it's not, I kind of trimmed it. And so it's not really outrageous right now.

Not outrageous. It was much longer. But let's get back to the heart of the question. Is this mustache that you have due to the Maverick movie, sensation, might I add, phenomenal film? And the mustache is in that movie. No. No, it's not. But it is a wonderful coincidence because most people have thought that.

And it also brought the mustache back into the limelight, which where it belongs. And then I went and watched Jurassic World, the third one, with my son. How was it? It was good. Chris Pratt's mustache looked great in that, which he also has. I mean, if he's rocking a mustache, I can get me. And look, mostly I was bored. With your life? Yeah, I just bored. You just needed a mustache. Sometimes everybody who has facial hair knows that every once in a while you wonder, what if I just mix it up a little bit, right? No.

I don't need to wonder, because if I shave my beard, I'm a fat face. So, like, there's no question. I don't ever think, like, oh, I wonder how I would look if I... I've known you longer without a beard than with a beard, fat face. Well, yeah, I wasn't always fat, so you've known me since high school. But no, I do recommend the gradient strategy. Because I did ask first. I mean, the strategy was like, hey, wife. That's how I call it. I say, hey, wife. That's how we talk to our wives.

That's not true. I said, hey, Bree. What do you think about a mustache in which she said no? So then you take the gradient strategy. And before you know it, it's like she sees me a lot. She didn't even notice. Yeah. It's the whole boiling a frog. If you drop a frog into hot water, he'll jump out. Boil your wife in a hot pan. Kyle, you're on my team, right? Team mix it up. Yeah, mix it up. I mean, the ladies love it. Yeah. I mean, this is sort of a.

Maybe they do. You're not a big mustache fan. I think that a mustache can look good on certain people, and I will say this. Uh-oh. No, I think you look fine with the mustache. Sometimes mustaches make people just look real creepy. Well, I don't. Yeah, I'm not. Real creepy. I was saying I definitely think I'm more creepy now than before. Yeah, I mean, it's made you a little creepy. I'm at least a little creepier. Yeah, there's no, there's no non-creepy mustache. It's just, it's back to the gray. I've gotten the top gun.

And then that I look like a cop. Okay. You know, why is it the cops, because it is like known, it's like connected with being a cop is to have a mustache. Why is, why did that happen? Why did cops decide like a bunch of them got together and were like, this is our look or what was the? I guess so. I think maybe there's a famous mustached police officers in cinema. Okay. All right. No answers from the deucers on these. No, you guys are not authorities on this matter. Too deep.

Two deep of questions on the show. Instagram question. How early is too early to draft Alan Lazard? The answer is if you're asking that question, where you want to draft him is too early, in my opinion. Right? I mean, if you're in a place where you're going, man, I just, I've got to have Alan Lizard. How soon am I allowed to take him? Yeah. So Alan Lazard, who opened the show, good friend of the show here.

and great friend of Mike's. The Lazard King. He's currently in Sleeper being drafted about the end of the 10th round. So usually when guys are. That's not too soon. That's not too soon. But the heart of this question is someone really wants to walk away from their draft with Lazard. He's going in the back of the 10th. So how far ahead if you say, I believe Alan Lazard is going to be the dude for the Green Bay Packers, the wide receiver one, double digit touchdowns? If that's your belief.

How high do you need to take him or is it a mistake? You know, perfect example. Sixth round is fine if that's what you, if you like believe it. Wow, that is spicy. Sixth round. So you're willing to go all the way up to where. You just said that he's going to have double digit touchdown. If you believe he's a double digit touchdown, wide receiver one, extraordinary for Aaron Rogers. Yes, sixth round is not the end of the world. You shouldn't do it. I still think that would be a mistake. Even if he does do that.

because you don't need to draft him in the sixth round. Well, sure. Did you try to trap me there? No, you just, you jumped in too hot. You went right into the boiling water. I would rather be dead than draft him there, to be clear. Well, I think that is, I think that is pretty clear. I think the eighth round is where I would say, you know, the sixth and seventh round still has some really good players in it that I would not be reaching.

so far above average draft position that no one else is going to grab. I mean, you know your league, right? Like if you've got a crazy Packers fan. I hate those, but. Oh, they're the worst. Yeah, where are you draft? Where are you drafting? Alan Lazard there, Al? First round? Fifth round. Fifth round. Okay, so I guess maybe the six you're not going to give. In general, though, I think that if you really want them, look where his ADP is. Two rounds is kind of the cap. I think if you go two rounds ahead of a guy that's in the 10th,