Fantasy Football - Stat Surprises + Bucky Hype, Purdy Gets Paid - Podcast for 5/20

Oh, Marv Bros. Yeah. We already know how Mike feels. Yeah, uh, burnt. Yeah, yeah, I was, um, try to tell you. So Jason's got both sides of it. He was right on the bus and he's got him up high this year. Hey, when you're right, you're right. Mailbag time. Mailbag. We do have a voicemail question. If you wanted to submit one to the show, you can go to the website, the fantasy footballers.com. Click on the submit a question button or dial. The 302-464 TFFB number. We'll start with a voicemail. Hey, ballers, Chris here, love the show. Just wondering what your guys' opinions are on the quarterback rankings this year. I feel like there's a big drop-off after Jalen Hurt. And I kind of like the idea of drafting the Justice Fields, the Drake May, the Caleb Williams later in the draft. Retraft Lee, let me know what you think. Thanks.

So the question was, you know, it's just quarterback strategy and talking about the big boys at the top, which would be, so, you know, top tier, we got Lamar, Allen, Jalen Hertz, Jaden Daniels, and then Burrow is in that category. Burrow is not in that category to most people. Okay. He should be in that category for me. Right. He's the fifth quarterback ADP-wise going right now at the four-five turn. So, I mean, that. Things have really changed when it comes to drafting and what the market is where, you know, when 10 years ago, when we were first doing this show, the really late round quarterback strategy, it was extremely effective. One, because people kept, people would prop up pocket passers and take those guys real early. And you just, we would tell you, no, there's such variance here. One year, Baker Mayfield will throw,

what was it, 4,040 the next year, you could be 3,529. And that's like, that is such a devastating drop off in fantasy production. And it's, it's just, it's not sticky. Joe Burrow's like the only guy to me where it's like, no, I'm going to, I will count on Joe Burrow having in the mid 30s at least in passing touchdowns. I feel like the names he brought up though. For the late. Are like a third bucket. right like there's there's those top four or five names if you include burrow then there's another bucket of like middle to late that is going to end up being i mean like that's like keiler bonyx baker uh dack jordan love and then even mahomes and then you've that third bucket that may and fields it's like

Those are very questionable whether you'll be able to rely on them week to week. Absolutely. You can take the shot. Like, I mean, I don't mind you taking that shot, but you have to do that with, you know, maybe it's the final two picks. You're taking two of those guys. Yeah, I don't mind that strategy at all. And it's you got identifying the proper late round guys. I mean, I like Drake May a lot. Yeah, I'm saying taking the shot last year on Baker Mayfield late was not something many people did. I mean, he's stringing together a bunch of fantasy games, and he's still a waiver wire guy. And we're like, I don't know if Baker can keep doing this. And then he did. But so I'm saying that is if you're, well, he ended up, what was he top five quarterback? He was, but once he lost Godwin, he had, he had a, it wasn't as good. It was a pretty soft middle. Yeah, the edges were very rigid in the middle, very cookie. It was a soft middle. So. So. That's what you want.

Where I'm getting to. Yeah. But the crispy edges technically in that analogy are what you wanted because they are better. But in the football. The whole thing coming together. I mean, you say you want the soft middle. I want a soft middle with hard edges on a cookie. Right. On a cookie. But in the season. Not on a quarterback. Not on a quarterback. Well, I mean, right. Big bin is more of a soft. Right. The, uh, the point being when you're looking at the late round guys, target the ones that do run. Because that like, that's what. The OG strategy, you know, 10 years ago was people weren't wise to how different a mobile quarterback was for fantasy football. And we could find those guys late. Like, just a reminder, Lamar Jackson, the year two was a double digit round quarterback. And it was go, did we know for sure it was going to work? No, but this is the type of archetype you want to go after. So name one.

Name one. Drake May and Justin Fields. Drake May and Justin Fields are two guys that I would. What about Caleb? He, I wouldn't. Or are you trying to put it in the box of like the rushing upside? Yes. That's exactly. When I'm going late, that's the type of player. I want a player who's going to give me 400 something yards at least. on the- Trevor Lawrence. No, I wouldn't. To answer the question of the voicemail, which is he sees this top-tier bucket, which I don't think he's including Joe Burrow, which he should, but after Jalen Hertz, that it kind of drops off. I would prefer to either take one of those really impressive mobile quarterbacks, the Hertz, Allen, Jane Daniels, or.

wait all the way. I don't want that middle tier guy. I know I just talked about Bo Nix. I think I'm okay middle tier. I know I talked up Bo Nix. I know you like Baker Mayfield. Look at Bo Nix has the rushing upside. But it's like there's still quality running backs and wide receivers in those rounds where those quarterbacks are going that I don't feel like they are they're not going to lap the field of quarterback. Caleb was I would rather have four 76. Yeah, which that that is a fair point. I just I would I would take the bottom of the I don't think Caleb's going to go late.

I would rather go all the way to the, I really believe in Drake May. Drake May is a top 12 quarterback for me this year. If you could get Baker in the eighth round or you're taking. Well, sure, but I mean, I think Baker's like a fifth round pick right now. Is he? Baker is going at the 601, so the 5-6 turn. Yeah, you get to a certain place. Is that a basketball or a sleeper? Sleeper. You get to a certain place later where I'm saying to myself, would I rather have Baker or Bonnix or Kyler? or take a shot on a team in New England that's going to win a handful of games. Handful of games in New York, that's where it gets a little freakier for me. But, I mean, it's your, what does it cost? Like, what does it cost? But that's my point. It's so late.

No, I'm saying what does it cost to take one of those middle tier quarterbacks? I mean, if I can, I'll take the bottom of the middle tier in the eighth round. So the bottom of the middle tier in the eighth round is an acceptable pick. That is Bo Nix. Yeah, that's what I'm saying. I'd rather do that on a team that's playoff bound. In the eighth round, that is good value. Like that's a big difference to me. Baker and Bo Nix got them similarly, you know, ranked where they're finishing near each other. But the difference between the sixth round pick and an eighth round pick.

Yeah. For two quarterbacks that probably have the same range of outcomes. Yeah. No, that makes sense. Instagram question from James. What is Drake London's outlook with Michael Pennix Jr. He's only 23.8 years old. He's entering year four now Drake London is. It was a certified breakout, almost 1,300 yards, nine touchdowns. Was the wide receiver 6? Those. We don't have a lot of... The sample size for Pennix is... Was it three starts at the end of the year? It was a two. It was three. Do you remember Drake London's targets in those three games? I remember this all the time. Six thousand targets, 14 million yards, 97 touchdowns, Hall of Fame bust. Absolutely. It was. 221 target base. The last three games of the year in general are kind of...

stupid sometimes stat wise and then you they can be it was also I mean giants the commanders and the panthers yeah so the look at the the outlook for Drake London is that that's the profile and the archetype you need to be betting on 100% well let's look at our numbers I am a little like I think Michael you soft in the middle with Drake London is that what you're saying I'm concerned about That sounds like what you're saying. I'm concerned about Pennix, man. I have Drake London. You ready for this? Mm-hmm. Du-do-do-do. Wide receiver seven. Yeah. Yeah, that's fine. I love it. I love it. I've got him at 10. 96 for 12, 56 and 8. I got him at wide receiver 12. Yeah, so he's a wide receiver one. But I like Michael Pennix. I think he's going to succeed there. I do too. So I do think there's a little bit of risk. I mean, the Drake London Olave.

You know, coming out at the same time, waiting for them to hit. London finally hit. Olave we're sitting here going, you know, heard rumors. And Garrett, we're waiting. Yeah. Olave broke out. Olave has been great since he got on the field. Just stay on the field forever. So sad. It's going to be tough this year, man. Even when he would, yeah, I mean, even when he was like on the field. He's great. He's great. He's great. He's good. Well, he doesn't score a ton. He doesn't have the boom games where he scores 30 points. But like he's he has 16 games. 16 games in 2023 average 11.7 points. His entire career, he has a consistency rating of an A. Yeah, but that's like a vast majority of his games are good for you, helps you win fantasy leagues. He's the restaurant. You're just like, okay, I'm like I ate a meal.

No, he's the restaurant. But I don't leave telling people about it. He's the restaurant you go where you've never had something bad there. Agreed. Yeah. But you never had something you told nobody about. You show me a restaurant. And sometimes you get food poisoning sometimes. Oh, whoa, whoa, food poisoning. Yes, that's the concussion. Oh, that's too far. You know what I mean? Okay. That was hurtful. I don't like that. That's not his fault. Did you get food poisoning this weekend? You tried, didn't you? Not from food. Oh my goodness. For Michael Pennix, you guys have confidence? I know small sample, three games, but I mean, statistically not good. You're saying because his completion percentage was under 60%. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, he had a, he had a little bit of the struggle bust his rookie season, but.

He also showed enough to me in those three games where they were talented. The team was putting up points. You know, I don't have the game log in front of me. I do. And I can tell you what is. So his 17 game pace. I'm talking about the actual, the games. Yeah, in those three games. Yeah, but did they win? Did they put up points as an offense? Oh, yeah, they put up 34 points on the Giants. with 200 yards and zero passing touchdowns. I do have confidence in him. I really do. Zach Robinson, have confidence in him. Give Pennick some time. They're moving on from Kirk Cousins. This is a player. Look, the Falcons have. I think their win totals like seven and a half. I think they can push for the playoffs. I think the NFL believes in them. I think they have a ton of prime time. I don't love completing. No.

55% of your passes against the Carolina Panthers. He put up 38 points. I mean, what he's, I think he's going to be a successful quarterback. Yeah, I do. And I'm not, I'm not saying he won't. I'm saying that I have, but I have concerns. I'm not going to push on my chips. I'm not going to push my chips in on that three game sample of completing 58% of passes. Like other quarterbacks at that percentage. would be absolutely dunked on by this show. It's just too small of a sample. Sure. Either direction. I'm not given Drake London his super projection from that time either. Pinnix is 21 in my rankings. It's not like he's becoming a fantasy superstar. I just think as a team when you've got Zach Robinson, Bijon, and Drake London and Mooney. Richardson completed 60% of his passes and four games played his rookie year. And we were on here like, that's not good enough. Well, that was more about college though, too.

Yeah. That was more about what we saw in college from Anthony Richardson. Yeah, because you have to bring that in. The fumbles in the mistakes. Just saying. Yeah, no, it's fine. I don't criticize away. I don't think we've seen enough Michael Pinnock's to really make a deduction. I mean, he had one of his games was 67%. One of his games was 54%. One of them games was 55. I mean, it's it's really hard when you're a rookie. You haven't played. You're acclimating. Are you good? Are you not good? I mean, the team at least made the determination. This is the guy we're going with. That's all we know. Yeah. Yeah. And that'll be the question. Was that because they feel like Pennix is the future? They have to do that? Or do they look at Kirk Cousins when we have to do something else. It doesn't matter what it is. We've got to move away. Let's take a break. We'll answer some more questions. I was in the middle of.

pulling up the Michael Pinnock's collegiate numbers. He was a 63.3% passer in college. Those last two years, 65% passer. It'll be interesting. I mean, he's got to rock it. It's just can he execute the outfit? The problem is he spins the ball the wrong way and people can't catch it. I hated lefty quarterbacks. Are you being serious? I am actually being serious. And when did you hate them? When we played flag football? Oh. Remember we had one of our guys who was kind of a backup quarterback when you weren't there and he threw left. Your brain couldn't take it. My brain, my hands, the whole thing. And what hand do you right with? I'm left-handed. Okay. Self-hatred. It's true. It's true, Mike. This is a show today. I don't blame you. Left-handed people are just inferior. The worst. There is.

But you shoot right-handed in basketball. That's right. That's right. Yeah, because I was so ashamed. Watch we throw football. That's a right-handed throw. You ain't. Because I'm a man. That's why it's so bad. Right. Because I have sacrificed. You probably are awesome. If I were to throw with my left hand, maybe. But I don't want to be the Prius of quarterbacks. The boomer Assison of the office. I know we're going to disagree on this one here. Instagram question from Daniel. It's very short. It says, quote, Bucky hype real, question mark. Bucky hype is very real. The hype is confirmed. The hype is out of control. So when we say we're going to disagree, when Andy says that, the reason he's saying that is because he is very bullish on Bucky. He is leading the hype. And I don't blame him. I remember last year watching the player and saying like, you know, I'm usually OUT on fourth round running back rookies who.

have success because the next year is not going to happen. And I said it over and over and over. It's like, this is different. It's different. Bucky is awesome. However, I think the hype is out of control. Right now, Bucky is the sixth running back off the board. He is being drafted as a super duper star in fantasy. And I have my words because he's still in a timeshare. You know, Sean Tucker is there. Rashad White is not going away. He is still undersized. And so I like him a lot. I've got him. I've definitely got him as an RB1, but I do worry that the hype is too high. You put a, you know, when you draft the player at his peak, it's a zero-sum game. You have to, he has to deliver at that value. And if you believe, you know, we have risk ratings in the UDK, like you said. Like if you believe that there's a possibility that, you know, is it 25% chance that he's.

a big letdown, that's too much. I mean, when you, when you're drafting a guy top five at any position, you're always drafting them at their ceiling. They can only, you know, hit or disappoint. Yeah, they can meet your expectation or they can fail. Exactly. And so I just want higher odds of them meeting the expectation. If you look at Sequin, you look a Bijon, you look at Jemir Gibbs, I'm confident that those three got, like I'm not going to be disappointed barring injury. But he's not in that group. That's my point. And he's not in that group on my ranking. He's being drafted right behind that group. He's like the next man up after the stars. You're having to choose Bucky or McCaffrey. Right. And I will take McCaffey. You're having to choose Bucky or Genty. Right. And I don't think he's there. I have Bucky at eight. So I guess I'm not, I have him behind Christian McCaffrey. I have him ahead of A. Chan. So A. Chan is a perfect example of like A. Chan and Buckey.

They're the same tier. They could both be awesome. They are both awesome players, but there's risk. You look at both of those guys and go, it is not a surefire thing that they're going to be a top five running back. They both can be. From a talent perspective, I think Bucky is incredible. I think Bucky Irving is an incredible running back on an incredible offense with tons of weapons and opportunities to score. I have so much more confidence than I do whatever the heck the dolphins are trying to figure out to do on offense every week. So that's where I would weigh in. Like I think Bucky's very safe. Like I think he's ridiculously safe of a running back. But he could end up too expensive. I don't know where you weigh in, Mike. Where did he end up in your rankings? So currently he is RB9. So, I mean, I'm right around the same place. I'm in, but now I'm not in compared to the ADP. I think HN is a, like, nothing, you can, you can never get a full apples to apples comparison because of all the variables. But it's like,

Devon A. Chan's rookie year, you know, the efficiency was absolutely wild, and it looked like, dude, when he is the guy, it's going to be incredible. And overall, it was a great fantasy year. You know, he had over 200 carries. He was at four and a half yards an attempt. But it was the targets. It's the 87 targets that when things aren't working on the ground, you can rely on that. And you can just, you can PPR your way. into a fantasy day where you're not ripping your hair out, where Rashad White is, like, he will still, Rashad White's probably still going to see 50 plus targets in this offense. And that, that changes where if Bucky is not having a great day on the ground, like, Rashad White's still there to steal targets. No one's stealing targets at the running back position for May Chan. Bucky had 52 targets last year. Yeah. And he caught a higher percentage of, remember that we came into last year going,

Rashad White caught such a high percentage. He caught higher. Bucky Irvin caught a higher percentage of his passes than Rashad White did. And Rashad White had more targets than him last year. He did. And Bucky only played 13 games. That's the part that I think, like he was an 1,100-yard runner on 200 touches. So that efficiency probably won't stay there if they give him to rock that much. But he is going to be very interesting. I just think what I saw on film from Bucky Irving was a... it was a marked multi-tier difference between him and anybody else on that roster and they love him and he goes to work and so i think he's their guy i think how many how many carries did you project for him because i'm at 225 i'm at 240 let me pull it up i'd just be curious um oh i got i i haven't at 230 i lied you did i did lie you're a liar i have him at two yeah and i had more carries than you do and i think look

Like we said, we do project health, but Bucky is undersized. I know H.M. played the full year last year. But when you see your guy just getting, just limping off the field, getting banged up all the time where he'll play through it if he can. But I think that it's at least a concern that if you're saying, We love this guy. We're going to bump him up to 250 carries. Can a sub 200-pound guy, like Bucky, can, well, like running backs miss games, but it's just does that, does that pendulum swing now from, oh, I miss two games, too, I'm going to miss four games. He's a violent runner is more what it is to me than the size. He's a Rawls, Thomas Rawls, Royce. And smaller. Yeah, the size, I mean, it's a legitimate point that Mike is bringing up. If you don't remember weak,

13 against Carolina. They gave him 28 opportunities. 25 carries on the ground. How did he do? He was awesome. 152 rushing yards. 6 over 6 a carry touchdown. Another touchdown through the air was the running back one on the week. Do you remember what happened after that game? He looked like a mummy. He was wrapped up ice everywhere. He was a... bruised and beaten little boy going to the locker room and then the next week he comes out after being the running back one and he was banged up that whole week missed some practices but he's active and everyone starts him because he had to be started and in that game where he played the entire he did not get injured in that game he came in a little banged up and in that game he was given four carries played 16% of the snaps and was basically

He was just, it was like, oh, he's beat up. Let's give Rashad White and Sean Tucker. So the risk is definitely there being an undersized back. Instagram question from James Duranda. I'm pretty dead set on drafting train McBride of Brock Bowers in round two. Smart. Is that a smart move? Wide receiver position's too deep. I answered. I'm out. I'm perfectly fine with that. One of those. You can't one of those two guys. You will not be sad. Yeah. You will not regret that decision. I don't think you'll be sad. The only thing you will be potentially sad about is the game of your draft where someone comes in in the second round, they get one of the real big breakout players that comes out of the second round. And then two or three rounds later, I don't know where George Kittle is going. But that will be it. It is how good is George Kittle compared to those guys?

and your opportunity cost of taking Bowers or McBride in the second. Kittle right now is a fifth round pick. I don't think he'll stay that low. If he is, then, I mean, congratulations. Even in the fourth, it's, that makes it a hard decision. And you may not be slotted, like, where I'm going to be able to take a player in the second and then guarantee I'll get George Kittle in the fourth. So that, that's what I mean by the, if you want to enter into that contest of, of, I'm going to get Kittle. I think you aim. for McBride and Bowers. It's kind of not your choice always, you know, where you're, where you are in the second, whether they arrive on your doorstep or not. If you can't get them in the second, aim for Kittle in the fourth and you'll be just as happy. Do you know what we're doing on Thursday? A show. Yeah. Do you know what the show is going to be about? I am unaware, but I feel like you're about to tell me. I am aware. I am aware. What is this show? Sounds pretty good.

mock draft there is we're doing it we're doing the first mock draft of the year nice time are you guys gonna mock a lock a ding dong like light up a pack of smokes like i've been doing oh yeah for the draft for the draft i'm in here with a cigar so sultry is the that's the word you were looking no raspy okay nothing positive let's see how deucer's alley's doing Oh, no. Still there. Still there. Goodbye, everybody. Thanks for listening. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.