Fantasy Football 2017 - Breakouts + Keep/Trade/Cut

He's just lounging on the bed over there. He doesn't have any cameras to run. He doesn't have to run the board. I look over. He's doing the David Hasselhoff. Oh, is that what that was? All right. I was worried it was the Kate Winslet from Titanic. I didn't want that.

Oh, my gosh, he brought the Giamati sign with him. All right, I will, I'll hop in here next. I'm going to go with a guy that is one of, one of the rare guys on this list today we're talking about that is a consensus. I think we all see the breakout potential in him. A lot of people see it, but I want to explain it. That's for Tyreek the freak hill. Oh, break out.

That should be breakout, right? So you could say, well, he, you know, did he already break out last year when you look at the final numbers? But in reality, he wasn't, he was barely a wide receiver. He was, you know, a gadget player where, you know, they're getting him involved in short passes and handoffs and special teams and all sorts of stuff. But when you watch the film...

You saw a special player. You saw a guy that elite defensive players could not catch up with. I remember when he was playing, you know, in games against awesome defenses that I thought, look, they're not going to be able. They're going to be able to stop him. And he'd run away from, you know, the Denver Broncos. And you go, wow, he's fast. Last year, I was looking up some of the numbers from him. And he surprised me.

I wanted to focus today on, so how did they utilize him and how did he succeed or fail when Jeremy Macklin was gone? Because that's really, I think, it's not just a wide receiver two in the system. That's great. Wide receiver two's breakout all the time, but I think the real change for him is not just the second year, but is Jeremy Macklin being gone and him being thrust into the wide receiver one role for the Kansas City Chiefs. Do you realize how good he was when Jeremy Macklin was gone in his rookie year, in his first year?

How many targets, what do you think the pace? Okay, so not targets, receptions. How many receptions do you think he was on pace for? And there's a decent chunk here. It was weeks 9 through 13 that Jeremy Macklin missed. Weeks 9 through 13. Why don't you just tell us? I want guesses. No. Mike's saying no. Andy, will you give me a guess? How many receptions? No, how many receptions on that pace? 16 games. Oh, during the games. Macklin was out? From weeks 9 through 13. What pace? Probably 100.

Oh, wow. That's a lot. That's crazy to say 100. Why would you guess that high? That's insane. That's insane. That's actually low. He was on pace for 109 receptions. He was getting basically almost seven receptions a game. And when you look at it, it wasn't like one of these games. He had 15 receptions and then he had four. He's just basically every single game around seven receptions, which is.

That's ridiculous. Volume you can trust. Then you add in the talent. And clearly, I mean, even in the draft, you go, well, he was a fifth round wide receiver, you know, a fifth round draft pick. But he fell drastically in the draft because of personal baggage with domestic issues prior to that. He would have been a top pick had it not been for that. I want to take you back in time because I buy it. Look, this is one of our consensus breakout candidates is Tyree Kill. And look, it's hard to say I wouldn't.

His draft position is where? Sixth round? Yeah? I would draft him over Terrell Breyer for that draft value. Absolutely. Let me take you back in time because there's a player I think I can compare it. Let's go back to 2012. Percy Harvin. Percy Harvin is a great Tyreek Hill comparison to me because there was the first 10 games back in 2012 where he was the guy. Very similar situation in Minnesota. You had target counts of 12, 14, 10, 11.

13 for Percy Harvin that year. And I owned him. I remember how much fun it was to have a guy that not only had targets, but guess what? Here's his carry counts in those games. Four, one, two, two, two, two. Every game, you get an end-round or two. Every game, you get a designed run for that player. There is no chance to Andy Reid. An offensive mind is not going to utilize an offensive weapon in a wise way.

So I am on board. And they clearly want him to be used in that way. They've taken him off of special teams because they want him to stay healthy and be involved and have the gas tank to get it done with volume. You know, if from weeks 9 through 13 when Jeremy Macklin was out, that would have put him on pace. And I'm getting rid of the rushing. I'm just saying as a receiver, forget the 141 yard rushing, you know, totals that he was projected for. Forget the.

Kick return touchdown. Forget the punt return touchdown. Take all that out. Just how many receptions, how many yards, how many touchdowns. During those weeks, that would, that projects to 190 fantasy points, which would have put him just ahead of Larry Fitzgerald and Amari Cooper in half point scoring. That was in his rookie year. That was without a training camp as a one. So the breakout potential is there. Now, should he become injury prone like Percy Harvin because he's a small frame and getting that volume? Well, we don't have the migraines. Right.

that history yet. The one thing I'll say about Terry Kiel, the only variable, I think he's actually a really, really safe player. I love him in the sixth round. The only thing that could happen that would disrupt Tyree Kiel, I think, would be a quarterback controversy changeover mid through the season. Because you just don't know, you don't have a rapport with Pat Mahomes or as, what was the nickname that one of the foot clambers said? Guns Mahomi. Oh, yeah, he wanted us to call him Guns Mahomes. I'm still digesting on that way. TBD.

Mike, let's get a breakout from you. All right, I'm going to start with this one because this one's a little bit off of the radar. And Andy is just seeing it for the first time because I was thinking, like, what do I want from a breakout player? I want a player who I can draft late and I believe can become a startable fantasy asset. And that, who, you're not overreacting here? No, I don't believe I am. That's Tarek Cohen because he is essentially free in all. Wait, is that Tarek the freak? No.

This is Tariq Cohen, Chicago Bears running back. And here's the deal for Cohen. He has passed every single eye test through this preseason. Yeah, and small sample. But he was an absolute beast, a beast in college. So his college production already backed up what we're seeing now in the NFL. They have a solid offensive line. He's running 6.4 yards per carry. And yes, it's two preseason games. I understand.

But just watch him play. Watch how decisive and best. The Arizona Cardinals won. Exactly. I mean, that's a great defense. Even if they weren't scheming for him and hadn't, you know, done the film for him, you're still just going elite defensive physical player. And here's the thing. As much as I love Jordan Howard, last year, a drop rate of 14%. That's not a guy that you can count on in the passing game. And I know they have Benny Cunningham, but.

you've got to follow what the team is doing. They're giving Cohen all of these opportunities because they want to see what they have. And Tariq, 37 receptions in his senior year. Now he's coming to the league. I'm projecting him as that passing role for the Chicago Bears because you know who he reminds me of now? Darren Sprouls. Yeah, he's 5-6-179. He is in this Darren Sproul's frame. He looks like young Darren Sprouls on the field. And is that a running back one or two?

No, probably not. But in PPR, this guy is going to be a three, and he's going to have games just like Darren Sprouls, where when he gets 10 plus carries because a game flow works out with that. Let's say it's just, it's working. You've seen this with Darren Sprouls. When Darren Sproul's carries are working, teams just keep feeding him the ball. I'm guessing game scripts are what you're interested in. Yes, because they're going to be losing. And of course, there's all the negative game scripts for the Chicago Bears.

A lot of passing is going to have to happen for this team. So I'm saying a free running back in the draft, which. Tariq Cohen or Charles Sims? Cohen, for sure. Okay. Because I like you breaking out a new name here. And I just, I don't know, man. I believe in what I am seeing. I believe in his college production. And I believe that he, like you're saying, that the negative game script is so huge for Cohen if he.

really steals that passing downs job, which I think Benny Cunningham is injury prone. And Benny Cunningham appears from what we've seen that he's been brought in even more so for special teams than to be that passing downs back. So I can buy into Cohen being the passing downs back and having in a PPR league some value. But a breakout, I think is only going to be able to happen with an injury to Jordan Howard. See, I don't even think so.

The way I'm looking at a breakout is someone who, and it's a rookie, so obviously you couldn't start him last year. But a breakout to me, I'm saying this is a player that will become a startable fantasy player on a consistent basis. Sure, he could turn into Chris Thompson. No, I think he'll be better than Thompson. Yeah, because Chris Thompson's not a start-a-old fantasy. Yeah, I don't think you can use him. Yeah, well, that's what I mean. In a PPR...

deep league you can you can start him in the flex but you're going to need home to me you're going to need home runs you're going to need to recone that he's got the talent we'll all right we need to move on we got three more breakouts for you i'm going to give love to the uh fans in dc today because my breakouts they're on the same team guys i'm going terrell prior

And Jameson Crowder. So a third breakout. Crowder. Kirk Cousins. No. Look. Yeah. He already broke out. Kirk Cunds already broke out. I already talked about the 5,000 passing yard offense. Look, Jameson Crowder is being drafted in the sixth round. And this is not unprecedented to have two wide receivers in the top 24. And that's what I'm projecting. I'm not telling you Jameson Crowder. Last year was the 30th wide receiver. I'm telling you this guy can get up to the.

the 20 range this year. And you can have two top 24 wide receivers in Washington. Last year you had four duos. You had Jordie Nelson and Devante Adams. You had Crabtree and Cooper. You had Demerius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. And you had Michael Thomas and Brandon Cooks all finished inside the top 24 on their respective teams. This is a high profile offense. I believe it will be a very powerful offense. And James and Crowder is going from a guy who last year was his second year.

There are certain players, right, that are dedicated. You talk about Julian Edelman's hustle in the preseason. You know who has that kind of dedication? James and Crowder, this guy works hard to get better every single day. He's now a starter. Last year, he was only in on about 73% of snaps over the course of the year. A lot of those were the result towards the end of the year of having 80 plus percent snap counts with Jordan Reed out of the game. I think he'll be right around that 80% mark this year. There are...

B reporters in Washington, they're talking consistently about, look, if Jordan Reed is not on the field, Crowder's your number one option already. He's the wide receiver one on this team. When they go too wide, Crowder's on the field. That wasn't the case last year with Garsohn and Dijax. So to me, he's a prime breakout candidate to get up into that top 20 range. I think cousins in this offense can sustain it. And if you have a small dip, which I can understand with his size in the red zone and with having weapons like Doxon, Reed, and Pryor, I think it'll be.

made up for when you had last year he had 67 receptions for 847 yards and seven touchdowns i see him more in the 80 reception range for a thousand yards maybe it's five touchdowns but i think it's going to be a top 20 performance so i like james and crowder trail prior we can go on and we can talk about mike's next break out oh i get to jump all right i'm i'm sorry i'll just let you bring it back i'll let you uh bring up the final you can drop you can close out the show yeah all right

You always weigh us down. That's, if I've ever been called one thing, it's been the anchor. Jason, Jason is the row off the shit. Is that what they call, like when you play a game of Tuggle War, the guy that's on the, like that puts himself in the rope at the back? Yeah, if the rope can fit over me. Is that the anchor? I believe it is. I believe it is. Okay. And speaking about a guy who may anchor a lot of my fantasy teams this year, I'm back in. He was close to being a my guy. Samir Abdullah.

Fifth round price because I... Perfect breakout candidate. I strongly believe in the talent. Look, people were disappointed in his rookie year for his fantasy output. He was only in on 33% of snaps. Hard to hold that against it. They still believed in Joyke Bell and Theo Riddick was already established or was establishing himself as the passing downs. Beck. There's Joy. I just don't know how often we're going to get to talk about Joyke Bell again. Trust me. If we know one thing about the NFL, it's that...

there will always be a new joick bell who will be able to use that drop. Yeah. But here's the thing. Follow the money, right? You have to do this in the NFL when you're looking at fantasy players. They were, every, all draftnicks were saying, okay, the lions, they are, they're a prime spot for one of these rookie running backs in the draft. Nope. They didn't add anybody because all offseason they've said, Amir Abdullah is our guy. He is our lead back. They didn't add anyone of note.