10 Things to Remember from 2018 + FA Wishing Well

and they can be on good teams as well. Last year, 12 wide receivers draft outside of the top 40 wide receivers had stretches of at least four games where they were a wide receiver one. You have to, it's really hard because it feels counterintuitive to draft these players, especially a wide receiver who feels like it's just such a tough task for them to rise up and become relevant.

But they can't. It happens all the time. And so this is what I'm reminding myself of. I loved Goladay. But I just, I didn't draft him because I didn't see the path. Anything that remotely resembled a clear path. So you're saying later in your draft, trust the talent, even if they look a little bit more bareness. Well, it's interesting because that'll feed into mine a little bit. Number seven. Which is basically the fact that you're absolutely right.

later in drafts, those wide receivers that do break through like Tyler Boyd or even like Tyreek Hill a couple years ago or even Tyreek Hill this past year where he wasn't drafted to be an upper echelon guy. If you look at who was on playoff teams, okay? Right. And this is what I want to bring up. And this is more talking about running backs. But if you look at the players that were on the highest percentage of –

of playoff teams. Six of the eight most common players were running backs. Okay? They were running backs. That's the power of McCaffrey and Gurley and Barclay and Philip Lindsay. The other two were players like Tyler Boyd and Tyreek Hill, which were value-wide receivers. Hill was a value for where you drafted him. He was. And Tyler Boyd was a value for where you drafted him. But here's what I want to get into about the running backs and about basically breaking down the value of the running back.

and what's happened the past couple of years and how when a running back, like you, Jason, with Devanta Freeman and with Dalvin Cook, running back pain, it burns. It burns deep, and it burned deeper in particular in 2018. I took a look over the last two years at the top 30 drafted running backs and top 30 drafted wide receivers, okay? How many of those guys finished in their top 30 at the position? Simple thing. Two years ago,

It was 10 and 10 that finished outside of it. Okay? So you've got 33% of both positions finished outside of the top 30 if you drafted them in the top 30. There wasn't any particular running backs hurt you, wide receivers hurt you. Well, last year in 2018, only 30% of the receivers drafted in that range finished outside the top 30. Only nine of them. So out of the top 30 ADP, 21 finished inside.

So you got a lot of what you deemed consistency from that position. And this includes injury variables. At the running back position, 15 of the 30 finished outside the top 30. So half of the players that you drafted were burns to you in drafting a running back. And then there were guys that didn't finish outside like David Johnson, who doesn't even qualify for that group, but felt like a burn. Felt like somebody that hurt you.

And you had major injuries, right? Derek McKinnon at the time. Lev Bell, you know, it's crazy. Two years in a row, one of the top two running backs burnt somebody. People took Lev Bell this past year. He never showed up. David Johnson last year went number one on most drafts injured in the first game of the year and burned you. So the way it feels right now is that running backs burns you more than wide receivers did. But the reality of the teams that made the playoffs and succeeded, six of the eight.

players that were most common on fantasy rosters were running backs. So yes, the risk was higher, but you saw two years ago it wasn't higher. So the overreaction risk right now is to go out and say, hey, I'm afraid of the running back. I got burned really deeply. We see that right now in your ADP with Dalvin Cook, with Devontah Freeman. These players that are going in the third and fourth round are late. You know, that is a reaction to the pain you felt. So what I'm saying is, look,

Ignore the deep running back burns. This is a one-year outlier at the position for them to hurt you more than the ride receivers do and ride those running back horses like we always say to. Get them early. They're going to carry you to a title. So that's my reminder for 2018. Number six. You know who's not going to carry you to a title from your draft? Who's that?

Rookie wide receivers. Oh. That's what I'm saying. That's what I believe. And that's what I believe the data backs up. Talk to me, Jay. Break it down. Wait in drafts. You always want a tantalizing opportunity. The huge upside of the unknown in the star rookie. And you want to find that guy. You want Odell Beckham. Now, in the last 12 years, the number one.

rookie wide receiver was O'Dell Beckerby. He did it in 12 games. When you got that guy, and granted, he was injured the first four weeks. O'Dell Beckham was more of a waiver-wire pickup that year in 2014. But he was awesome. And that year of 2014 skewed us so heavily. In fact, three of the top 10 rookie wide receiver performances in the last 12 years were all from 2014. And one of them was Calvin Benjamin. Just a good example of right place, right time.

getting lucky. But in general, in general, you don't perform well as a rookie wide receiver out of the gate. And that's what you need in draft season. In the draft season, you need a guy that's going to come out week one, week two, and be awesome. If you look at, look, DJ Moore, Dante Pettis, even James Washington, Michael Gallup, these guys were helping you at the end of the year. They stepped up. They looked good. I'm going to look to them this year.

But if you drafted them, that did not help you in the slightest. It hurt you. You didn't perform well. The only guy that got off to a strong start was Calvin Ridley. And Calvin Ridley did not help anybody. He wasn't in the three touchdown game. And if you look at how he actually performed. So Calvin Ridley, in the last 12 years, he was a top 10 fantasy rookie wide receiver. That's like, fantastic. I got a top 10. Was anybody happy?

With Calvin Ridley this year, he was our consistency rating wide receiver 39. He was negative scores on his great rate, his good rate, and his bust rate, like really negative on all three. He wasn't someone that actually helped people in fantasy football, and that was a top 10 performance. This is, I mean, it's a great point, and it's why I hate it when.

you get to the very end of your draft and you use your last pick on a rookie wide receiver like that. Yeah, I'm taking a three. That's the worst thing you can do because even if you do that, like they're the sexy name. Oh my gosh, I got DJ Moore with my last pick. Yeah. But the problem is, is even if DJ Moore's great, it happens like after you've released him for five weeks, right? Yeah. You hold him for two weeks and go, oh, man. I mean, you didn't even put, what was it, Treyquan Smith in your list here. He's another guy that was like, even if you.

If you had him, you probably didn't play him on. Scantling or Equanimia St. Brown was actually drafted higher. I mean, you know, these wide receivers don't happen. And we have so much data, right? I mean, there's so many rookie wide receivers drafted every single year, both in the NFL and in fantasy. And in general, they don't work out. And here's a thing. If you look at, okay, so Calvin Ridley, he stunk, and he was a top 10. Stink. Four of the guys ahead of him. So four of those nine.

were top 12 NFL draft picks. Guys that A.J. Green, Julio Jones, O'Dell Beckham. Look, when they were taken in the NFL, you knew there was something really, truly special and different. That doesn't appear to be the case in 2019. There's not like a clear-cut guy I expect to be this top five, top six NFL draft pick in this year's draft. So I think...

I am avoiding all rookie wide receivers. You can have them. I'm going to go with the talented players I liked from a few years ago who haven't broken out yet, who are coming into their third or second year in the NFL, and they might be looking like they're the wide receiver three on their team, similar to Mike. I'm going to draft those guys over the rookies in this year's at wide receiver. The stats just back it up. And last year is a perfect case study for that. And that's a good thing to remember from 2018. Number five.

Number five for me is just a fact of life that's not everyone thinks the same way that you do. They should. I don't know if you've ever experienced this. Really? But this year, in particular this year felt really strong. Remember Mike's takes on lemon desserts, Jason? They're just the worst. The best. Thank you, Mr. Suit.

But I want to talk about rational coaching or just me believing what is the clear and right thing to do for these NFL head coaches. Mike has the hardest time of anybody I've ever known at dealing with cramudgeon coaches in the NFL. You are not incorrect. Case of point. Rashad Penny. Rashad Penny was a first.

round draft pick in the NFL draft. A first round pick is among the most valuable things in the NFL. We're talking like Antonio Brown generational, what he might end up as a top five wide receiver of all time. I will be shocked if the Pittsburgh Steelers get a first round pick for Antonio Brown because teams guard them. It's, it is their precious. The first round pick. Yes.

And Rashad Penny was the pick of the Seattle Seahawks for a team that had glaring holes everywhere. And they went with a running back. A what a lot of people call a luxury pick. And you think, okay, this guy is set up for incredible success? No. Not even in the slightest. Up in Detroit, they traded up for Carrion Johnson. Who's going to be great this year? But you trade up for the second round for a running back.

Meanwhile, here comes the Garrett Blunt killing drives. I mean, this wasn't just, he was a second round pick. This was the guy who was on the field was an inferior talent. We all see it, but somehow the coach does not see it. Tampa Bay spent a second round pick on Ronald Jones. The guy couldn't even get on the field. So it's, I still believe in the power of draft capital, but I am allowing for a little more leeway that some coaches do things that are highly irrational.

with their players. Is there going to be a component when we do our coaching changes overview where you can factor in some trust or lack of trust in the changes that have taken place based on that type of a thing? Absolutely. I'm just, I'm trying to be open that Pete Carroll is a butt face. Oh, no. Here's the thing that they've got a B-face and a B-hole now. We love coaches. Let's not. Here's the thing that's troubling. I like Pete Carroll.

And here's why I think you're going to not be able to, I don't know. Avoid it. Avoid it. Seattle was good. Right. They were, he may be irrational for fantasy owners, but he was very rational. And Schottenheimer and Carroll. It ended up, yes. It worked out for them. Now, Detroit, Tampa, not so much. Miami. But there are going to be teams that, you know, we are removed from two things. We are removed from.

a coach's history in the NFL. So the things that they've done through 20 years of their life that they think work and don't work. So they're biased in that regard. And we're removed from the personal interpersonal relationships that they have with players. We see all the time. Look at Bruce Ariens just brought in Andre Ellington. Probably the only coach in football that would do that. Might be the only coach that would give him reps in the NFL, all because of an interpersonal relationship. So I don't know what Matt Patricia and Legerrett Blunt, if they are, they love hanging out.

Those are the things we're not privy to. And that's what you see. They're very into the X-Men movies. Yes. You see the irrationality behind that coaching. And I do too. It's unfortunate. Makes you want to cry. And maybe it does need to be factored in to your actual drafts. You have to allow space for that to happen. And I think the only time you can recognize that, you just have to get better at recognizing it early. Like we figured out that, okay, Chris Carson was going to be the guy. But it was too late. We didn't believe it at.

at the beginning. And when something seems like it should go the other way and a coach is saying, no, I'm going to go this way, you just got to believe the coach, even if you disagree with the call. To be clear, I mean, I did. That is true. So you could always just listen to me and just ignore my. Uh-huh. That's another option. Oh, there'll be a 10 thing to remember. I think you would have put Caleb on the field too often. Uh, number four.

A little shout out to the dynasty players out there. This one, uh, this was a reflection of Brooks. I agree with it and I'm bringing it in the top 10. Brooks is the master to remember. Yeah, because this is his forte, right? Yes. He's got a PhD. It is not just his forte. It is his birthday. Whoa. Oh my goodness. That's why I'm wearing the suit. How old is Giamati today? Let me take a little. Yeah, let's look that up.