Fantasy Time Machine + Kyren Siren! - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/28

No one has the courage to move him where they believe he is. I've got him at running back nine. And it feels, yeah. Oh, I hate where you have him ranked. I take it back. I hate where I have him ranked as well. But I go and I look at the numbers. I'm just like, I think that's going to happen. I'm not drafting him as the running back. He's in the fifth round. I'm going to wait and get value. But I do think at the end of this year, he's probably a low end RB one on the back of, I mean, if you're in a PPR or a half PPR league, not in standard.

It's Tony Pollard for me. Last year it was all the failed expectations. This series, the RB 26, which is right around where Rashad White was drafted. To me, this is a DeAndre Swift, Kenny Gainwell situation. I know people like Taj Spears. I think Pollard is the better player. He played every snap of the Titans first drive. He's going to be the goal lineback. That's what Swift did. Like, you can show respect to the incumbent, which is exactly what Philadelphia did. They said, Kenny Gainwell was here. DeAndre Swift is the new guy. We gave the contract to. We're going to say you're a starter. And then on the field, Kenny Gainwell couldn't do enough to, you know, hold off. DeAndre Swift. That's the exact situation I expect in Tennessee. I think Tony Pollard is the better running back. I think the offense is better than people think. And I think that you're going to see it over time. So when you look at a player who, you know, let you down being drafted in the first round last year,

Why don't you try the seventh roundout? That might be a lot better situation. I'm going to go with Javante Williams. I think he fits the mold exactly of what we were watching about Rashad White last year. Javante was very inefficient this past year, and yet the volume was still way up. Now you have Somaget P. Ron. P. Ron. Samajet P. Ron. And his 56 targets. going away from this system. Yes, Jaliel McLaughan will 100% see more action. He will see an uptick. But I think that Javante is going to just purely volume his way there. And you're hoping that because he has had another full off season to rehab, strengthen, recover from the knee injury, that it is not as bad.

as it was last year. I think it's a fair assumption because Simage AP Ryan has been released from the Denver batfield. So you're talking about a player that was handpicked by Coach Payton versus a player that was drafted before he was there. And yet, Giovante's still around in number one and people are just scared. He had 58 targets last year. I mean, like there is a chance that that actually goes up. All right. Let's find 2024's Jordan Love. Jordan Love was the quarterback 26 last year. So this was like undrafted, unproven, young. He ends up with 32 passing touchdowns. He has another four on the ground, completely left for dead. And instead ends up a top 10 quarterback on a top 10 offense. What you got, Jay? Well, I will say this. I like Andy's answer probably the best of the three of ours.

This one, my answer is not a young guy that's been left for dead. Obviously, he is later in his career. But Matthew Stafford, when I look at Jordan Love, what made him great was he had all these weapons to throw the ball to. And, you know, it was like the touchdowns came for Jordan Love. And we've seen Matthew Stafford be a great touchdown thrower. Now, as a Ram, the specialist last year, Kyron was the machine on the ground. The touchdowns, you know, he was great through the 20s. It wasn't like he was bad or struggled to throw touchdowns. They were really good at just running in touchdowns. But you've got years before, multiple years as a top five fantasy quarterback. Andy, you brought up on the live show your belief in Puka and Cooper Cup as great receiving options. And I do think if you're looking, okay, what is a quarterback this year who's kind of left for dead in drafts, who's later drafted?

but has the weapons to maybe throw for 4,535 in the real late rounds, Stafford to me would be the guy I would go after. For me, it's Trevor Lawrence. Trevor Lawrence. I mean, the sentiment around Jordan Love to start the year was bad. It is very bad around Trevor Lawrence right now. I'm a big Brian Thomas Jr. believer. I like what Doug Peterson normally does on the offensive side. And Lawrence is somebody that was. You know, that has the ceiling to do something special if the season comes together the right way. He actually tied Brock Purdy last year with the most 20 plus yard passing touchdowns. And we've talked a lot about the near misses. He's looked pretty good in the preseason. He's had stretches of games where he's been elite as a passer and nobody wants him. That left for dead applies very, very specifically to Trevor Lawrence.

You know, if you believe that Brian Thomas Jr. has more of a upper echelon ceiling, then you're talking about the fact that he actually added something to this offense that is pretty special. Ingram is going to be heavily involved. So he has the weapons. And so I think Lawrence fits that bill as the ignored, but maybe you don't ignore him after four weeks. Lawrence totally fits the bill here. Going back to the beginning of last year, I did not believe Jordan Love could do what he did. I really genuinely didn't. see that as one of the outcomes. And Trevor Lawrence, you know, we've seen him enough where you go, ah, he's not that great. But, you know, we bring up those missed touchdowns, those how many, a handful of mist touchdowns, all the injuries that Trevor Lawrence had, if you want a guy who could really come out and establish himself as like a future star the way Jordan Love did, Trevor Lawrence fits the bill. I have, uh,

I was the most outspoken on the show about Trevor Lawrence last year. I hated his ADP. It has swung way too far for Trevor Lawrence. Last year in the second half, Weeks 11 through 14 QB, 16, 5, 11, and then he kind of got injured there at the end of the season. Would you take him or Herbert? Oh, man. I think that's so close. Probably Herbert just because I believe. I know Herbert's really good. I think Trevor Lawrence is good-ish, but, and we don't, like, Gabe Davis is pretty much an invisible fantasy player that we don't talk about, probably for accurate reasons, but Gabe Davis is one of those guys that it helps the quarterback. I mean, like, he's a, he is a good, deep ball.

guy. A big target. You think he could be good for five or six touchdowns in the year. And that really helps Trevor Lawrence. The name I'm going to bring up, it was because I was looking at ADP of guys in the mid-20s is Gino Smith. All the reason Jason just talked about with Stafford is looking at the Seattle offense, D.K. Metcalfe is a great wide receiver. Even if Tyler Lockett isn't what he once was, he's still good. I mean, he was good enough that they... needed to give him a little bit of a contract extension. And then the hope and the promise of last year's first round or first wide receiver off the board in JSN and this new offensive scheme. Gino Smith was actually still good last year as a quarterback. The numbers weren't prolific for fantasy, but it was the same average depth of target. His adjusted completion rate was still at 77%. It was just the big plays did not go there. He dropped from

15 passing touchdowns of 20 or more air yards down to five. And that's something that should positively regress back up. All right. Let's try to find 2024's Jake Ferguson from last year. Undrafted tight end ends up number two on the team and target share. And so you're looking for that weekly floor, touchdown upside. Right. And somebody that can be the number two target on the team. For me, this is Tyler Conklin on the Jets. Kong, Kong, Kong. You know, we've seen Aaron Rogers is going to throw the football to the players he trusts the most. Conklin is a trustworthy target. He's a trustworthy target around the end zone. And this situation lines up with, you know, you want to use the parallels. Garrett Wilson is the CD lamb of this equation, right? And Tyler Conklin, like, Mike Williams is hurt. Malachi Corley's a rookie. Xavier Gibson is somebody.

Conklin knows what to do and he actually has reached just under 100 targets the last three years. So, you know, he is being completely ignored. I don't think we've brought him up one time. It may be in passing as a sleeper tight end. So I think Conklin is, you know, Conklin is a lot like Ferguson even from a, you know, he's not going to blow your mind with athleticism, but the physicality size and being a kind of. you know, lunch pail tight in, go out and do everything you're supposed to do and then be available to your quarterback. That's how Conklin hits for me. He was like last year for the Jets. It was Garrett Wilson with all of the targets guys. Oh, I know. 168. Second on the team is Breece Hall. Third, Tyler Conklin. With how many? With 87. With 87. I mean, those are bad targets last year, but.

If he can get anywhere close to that type of volume from Rogers, that's a huge upgrade. And not a lot of talk. Yeah, for me, the Ferguson comp is Pat Fryermuth, who is a post-hype sleeper. We have to remember how this guy's career has worked out. Like, he was, he showed flashes as a rookie, but he was a rookie tight-in, and rookie tight-ins don't do much. His second year, which keep in mind was Kenny Pickett's rookie season. He was the tight-in eight. It looked great. And it was like, okay. So we've got a real player here. And then he was injured last year. And Kenny Pickett fell apart. The office fell apart. So it was like, this is a post-type sleeper where I think, what did, what did Kenny Pickett throw? Seven touchdowns? Like on the season? And so you're talking about, I know Russell Wilson is not the former Hall of Fame looking quarterback. I thought for me his big season was with Big Ben.

I'm not, I, I, 22, would that not have been Kenny Pickett's rookie season? No, Pickett played in 22. Yeah. That was Fire Meuse? Yeah, that was Fire Meuse. So he's had two years and then Pickett's had two years? Maybe Pickett didn't play much that year. That's probably what it was. Pickett started 12 games, I believe, that year. Oh, man, he only threw seven touchdowns. That's what I just said. I mean, it was, and he was the quarterback eight. So if you get a quarterback in here who can throw, you know, 25 touchdowns? That's not a wonderful number. Russell was 26 last year. Yeah, Russell was 26. So if he throws 26, who's it going to? You know, if they don't get Brandon Ayuk, okay, you got George Pickens looks great, but then he could be the number two target in this office. Could be. What other tight ends does Arthur Smith want to ruin you? That's my concern is the utilization of the tight ends has been sketchy for the youth. Tightens are so, they're so annoying sometimes because they, it's.

You need more to make a tight-in good. Like we always say talent rises. It feels like with a tight-in, you need circumstance. Yeah. The wide receiver, oh, Miami stinks. Jay and Waddle 106 targets rookie season doesn't matter. But with a tight-in, sometimes you've got to have, you've got to get on the field, you've got to have the right coordinator, you've got to have a quarterback that likes throwing to the tight-in. You almost unfortunately, almost always have to be one of the top two targets in your offense. The only exception I can really think of is like George Kittle is often at times the third or, you know, if you put McCaffrey out there. But there's not a lot of, I mean, Kelsey, top two, Andrews, top two. Laporta, top two. Yeah. Kincaid this year looks like top two, McBride. Yeah, I mean, it's like. Kade didn't have it, but now he will be. Yeah. So if you really want to be good, not just like, oh, I'm.

I'm the tight end 11. I'm occasionally good. You have to be one of the top two targets. There's not a lot of guys that fit that bill. Fryermuth does look like he could be. Should be. Yeah, I mean, Arthur. Makes sense. I am filing this one under protest. However, I think it is, I think it's Tayson Hill. Last year's tight end 12. Kind of your guy, I would say. Just kind of like your favorite player. I don't, I don't like the way that. The tables have turned on me here. Get him a jersey. I don't like what Dennis Allen has done to the Saints. I don't like what he has done to me and my opinion of the Saints. Peyton did it too. But it's it's magnified now. And Kendrae Miller out at least four games. I think Tayson Hill is the backup running back. I think he's the backup quarterback. I think he's the backup tight end. He is going to be a Swiss Army knife for the team. It will be.

There will be ebbs and flows. You sound so much like Dennis Allen. You do. You sound exactly like it. You have never said something worse to me on this show than what you just said right there. It will be hot and cold. There's going to be games where he completely vanishes, and then there's going to be games where he puts up 20 points and you win because you had Tastom Hill starting. All right, we'll take a break and we'll come back with another fantasy time machine player. All right, this one is less. fun than some of the other ones let's find 2024 Stefan Diggs who was the who was the first round pick in fantasy drafts last year was the wide receiver four off the board he was the wide receiver three in the first half of the year and then he just averaged seven point five points for game over the last half yet you kept starting him because he was Stefan Diggs because you start Stefan Diggs so this is an alpha wide receiver who could end up being a bust in the second half of the year

aka runs out of steam for fantasy football. Thielen would be another name that was like Diggs. Weird! Steve Thielen, well, he's getting more confused. Yes, it sounds like. But Dillon was on fire to start the year, loses steam. But he wasn't the fourth wide receiver taken in the draft last year. And so when I looked at that trying to comp, you know, who would I be worried about to pull a stuff on Diggs this season? I brought him up as kind of my bus pick late in June. But Devante Adams still scares me. I think he's great. I thought Stefan Diggs was great last year going into the year. But when you're at that age where you go, okay, he's going to turn 32 towards the end of this season. That is pretty old for a wide receiver. And the situation around him, you know, Luke gets his offense going to be very run heavy, super slow. You know, in 2022, they were 27th and neutral pass, 32nd neutral pass rate. This is a...

poor quarterback situation on an offense, I don't expect to be prolific for an older player who is being drafted very, very highly. So that's where if I've got a, if I've got to call a shot on someone that I want to try to avoid, who is a phenomenally talented, highly drafted wide receiver, it would be Demonte Adams. Go ahead, Mike. I don't like to say it, but I will whisper the name. Both of your guys shocked me. It's Debo Samuel. Look, I have him ranked very high. I love Debo, but it is, I think it is disingenuous to not actually look at the career of Debo and say, the guys had two great years and three other years that you're like, this was not good from, this was not great for my fantasy football team. He will turn 29 this year. I mean, you guys.

You wanted to give Jalen Waddle a hard time yesterday of being banged up. Debo has never played a full year in his entire career because he plays so physically. He plays like a man because he is a man. Yeah, he plays like a man. Give me the drop. Misses games like a man. A huge part of Debo's success is all of those rushing touchdowns. Debo's going to be 29. I mean, they probably still will. This is not a time machine that I hope comes true. It's just trying to look at what particular outcomes could be. Part of Diggs, for what it's worth, was it was a surprise to everybody. So if you're trying to guess somebody, it's not somebody that is obvious. We've never had a wide receiver at the age of 29 or older score more than two rushing touchdowns. He would become the first one ever. I understand that it's a huge part of his game, but he is a player. I have concerns.

over the second half of the year, he could start, you know, slowing down. I'm not going to say breaking down, but slowing down. There's literally no comp for him, though. Right. Because here's all the wide receiver since 1990 with double-digit touchdowns at a season and at least four of them coming on the ground, regardless of age. Tavon Austin did it. Debo Samuel's done it and Debo Samuel's done it. So it's like, yeah, of course there's no buddy at his age to ever do it. He's the only one that does it. Yeah, I'll bring up a name that has, you know,

Blown out the candles on two more birthday cakes. Mike Evans is 31 years old. And it brings me no joy to bring this up. But the cost, the draft cost, much higher than last year when he was a my guy. Why is it two more birthday cakes? Because Diggs is 29 and Evans is 31. I thought Evans aged two years this season. He did compare to Diggs. He got two birthday cakes this year. He did. He got one for his birthday and one. I gave it to him for the my guy. I say, you know what for my birthday? If you want to give me two cakes, I'm not going to complain. Okay. So Evans is, it's tough because this is kind of. Because he's the first ballot Hall of Fame wide receiver. Actually, I don't think he is. Oh, that's fine. I don't think he's the first ballot because it's almost impossible. You know, Terrell Owens didn't do it. Almost impossible, like his thousand yard streak. I think Rice and, I think Rice and. Fitzgerald. Moss are the only two that I can think of recently. Fitz was? Is he a.

Is he done that? First ballot? Yeah, he's... No, but he will be. I'm just saying it's... I mean, it's really hard to do. Now, listen, Evans was incredible last year, but this is perfect. Like, the older you get, the back half of this season is more difficult. He gets sustained by touchdowns. If Baker has a rough stretch, if they don't do what they did last year, you know, there's a lot of talk in this offense. You lost Dave Canales. You bring Liam Cohen in. A lot of talk about Chris Godwin getting more work. So from an ADP standpoint, Mike Evans costs you a lot more than he did last year. You have the same expectations. And he's 31 years old. So, you know, that's tough. And here's a stat for you. Over the last decade, there have been 11 wide receivers 31 and older that were drafted in the first three rounds for fantasy. Three of those 11 finished in the top 20.

So the track record is not there. I love, you know, Mike Evans has just kind of gone to work and got it done, but I got paid, you know, human nature a little bit. I don't know. That could be, uh, he's already rich. That could be a little tough. Yeah, Calvin Johnson, Randy Moss, Jerry Rice, Steve Largent, Paul Warfield, Lance Altworth, and Raymond Barry. Those are the only, wow. Those are the only first ballot hall of fame wide receivers ever. Yeah, so since 2000, just Jerry Rice, Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson. I don't think Evans is going to do that. So the guy that Mike Evans already has more receiving yards then was the first ballot Hall of Famer? Would that be Calvin? That would be Calvin. The guy who didn't play that much? I'm just saying. I bet a per year basis. Totality matters. Calvin was the best wide receiver on the field for most of his career. All three of those guys were the best of their generation. All right. So there you go. There's your fantasy time machine.

You know, not to leave Evans. The year prior, when you looked at the stats for Mike Evans, he finished as the wide receiver 16, and you looked at a lot of his stats, you're like, he still had 1,100 yards. He still had everything go his way. It was just kind of some touchdowns that didn't happen. It was a split of seasons, kind of like what we saw from Stefan Diggs last year. Evans was really good in the first half of that season two years ago. Oh, that was the Brady year. That was the year. We did nothing for the second half. The second half, he crushed my soul every week. Brady was so bad. He just didn't catch touchdowns. I mean, until that week 17, three touchdown championship burger. Thank you, Mike Evans. But yeah, I mean, he can. If the touchdowns don't come in a specific stretch of games, you could be very disappointed.

All right, that'll do it for today's episode. We got a mock draft this week. We got our fantasy MVP show this week. And make sure you click that follow button on Spotify, on Apple Podcasts, wherever you're listening. It helps the show. And if you want to leave a review over there, that helps the show as well. And those are a couple quick ways to support the podcast. One last reminder here as we close it out, the Megalabole. Come compete with the Foot Clan in the largest fantasy football league on planet Earth. megalobol.com for all the details and information. Check that out. Until tomorrow. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.