Rookie Review Show! + Second-Year Outlooks, Mystery Boxes - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/15

It certainly is a bad look going forward in the sense that you've got a new coaching staff that didn't necessarily go out there and participate in the second round draft capital that they gave up for Zach Charbonnet Walker dominated the first season. So I don't think I've changed much on my belief in the talent of Charbonnet. You know, he had the one week where, you know, or a couple of weeks where he had two weeks where he was. 85 or more percent of the snaps. Yeah, exactly. And during this stretch where Kenneth Walker was gone, he was a, you know, a running back two or better in two of those. So I think the talent is there, but I don't expect him to get opportunities to be very relevant. Is this a player? Walker established in year two that like he is the star of that of that running back room. We know Pete Carroll.

where his focus was oftentimes on this team. Will Zach Charbonnet be drafted later than he was this past year? He's a ninth round draft pick. I imagine he will go later. I definitely think he'll go later. Yeah. Because at the time, there was unknown upside. I mean, thankfully. So he's being drafted as a pure insurance running back. Yeah, I think I think so. And thankfully this last year didn't cost you much. I mean, a ninth round pick. most of the ninth round is going to be burnt anyways. So I don't mind taking the shot on him. But yeah, he'll be a double digit round player. I actually think the guy who was drafted after him now is the better bet to make in Kendra Miller, who did also show a lot of flashes, but didn't, he just wasn't healthy. He didn't have the opportunities. And Jamal Williams is, I mean, he just seems like he's done. Yeah, I would, I would not.

I don't know if a lot of flashes is the word I'd use for how limited his season was, but at the end of the year, he definitely percentage wise. Right. That's what I mean. Like he didn't get very many opportunities and yet you still saw some nice plays. 13 for 73 and a touchdown in a week 18. I believe he had a highlight real preseason catch. He did. So book ending these season with a few big plays. I am intrigued. at the kind of opportunity he might get next year. Camara was great in the passing game again, but he was not great on the ground. And so you could see that split up a little bit. I think it's a gamble. I mean, I think it just comes down to what the expectation is for the team in Camara. He's got two years left on his contract and a cap hit of $29 million in 2025. So I doubt he hits that. He plays that season.

I would agree with Jason in like this upcoming year, between the two of them, it certainly feels like Kendra Miller is more likely to get, just naturally get more work, get played in. He has the older running back in front of him who, I mean, guys never want to leave the field, but I'm sure Alvin Kamara would be like, yeah, sure, I'll take a rest year there, where Kenneth Walker is still young enough that. You can put them on the field all the time and have the gas tank to do it. What will this Saints team be as difficult? But I still believe in Henry Miller, the talents. You know, that final week, the final one, it's one play. But again, one play out of what? How many carries did Kendry Miller actually get? 40 or something? Forty one. But it was a great touchdown run where he essentially.

broke five, the equivalent of five tackles of jukeed a few guys and then carried a couple guys into the end zone. It was just nice to see where I don't know that, I can't even think of like a Charbonnet play where it was. Oh, there he is. There's the guy who I want was scouting as a college running back. How many times in 13 games that Alvin Camara rushed over 70 yards? Zero. One. One game. Yeah, eat it loser. Oh, man. One game. Such a loser. He had, he was 3.9 a carry. One game over 70 yards. Man. You know, 3.9 is not the end of the world if you're bringing what you did with 75 receptions, but let me ask you this. How many games that Kendrae Miller rushed for more than 70 yards? One. One. Yeah. So I do see the possibility of that backfield, maybe transforming sooner. Yeah. Yeah, the age of Camara mixed with the.

washed nature of Jamal Williams. Jamal Williams still had 126 opportunities, so I don't think he stays ahead of him on the depth chart. A lot of people want to know what to expect from Tajay Spears. I'm one of them. Third round pick finishes the RB 35, 100 carries. You want to know what to expect? Yeah. Yeah. So you're the right man for this job. I mean, look, you don't anticipate Derek Henry's going to be back. 52. receptions last year. Yeah, he's a very good receiving back. They have no one else there on the depth chart. So we'll see what they do this off season. But you could have a situation where he is just the guy. Feels a little like we were waiting for Rashad White not to have the job. That is exactly the name. But we all expect to Tampa to get.

A running back. They bring back Fortnet. Take one in the draft. Take one in free agency. No, no, no. Of the receptions, Tajay is one of 15 running backs, rookie running back since 2013 with 50 or more receptions. And that was kind of like one of those highlight stats for Rashad White saying it might be a value in the draft. Whether or not he is a good player, which I think Tajay Spears is a good running back. He just, he has a. a knee problem so long term it's not great but if they already trusted him like this guy was out there 50 plus or more percent of the snaps in 12 of 17 games you know 4.5 yards per carry over 50 receptions as a rookie it it's really good you know really good signal here that tajey spears if he gets the job that he'll be all right for fantasy the team at a team level it's going to be rough

But that might lend itself to help him even more. It could as a pass catching back. Yeah, I mean, no Vrabel, no Henry to, and quarterback situation is a mess. I mean. Yeah, how many rushing touchdowns that Derek Henry have? I'm going to pull that up. More than two. Well, look, I wouldn't be better on that. 12. But I'm just saying of like if in this current season, there was plenty of those touchdowns that Spears could have converted. I think that's your ceiling. Your ceiling would be a Rashad White type of season. Well, that would be an incredible ceiling. Yeah. I mean, but it's possible if he was the only guy there. Your floor is bad. Yes. Your floor is they draft somebody. They bring somebody in. The offensive philosophy changes. The team never scores any touchdowns. Tajay Spears is the Michael Carter. That would be your, that's your bad scenario. Yeah. Because Michael Carter had a pretty okay rookie season. Yeah.

You know, the jets are the jets. And usually you want to bet against sub 200-pound running backs. Taj Spears is not a big guy. So, you know, you would expect them to say, oh, maybe he's a good complimentary back. But if he was the plan to succeed Derek Henry in the short term, he'll be great. And you've got to make that bet because it's a very risky. The floor is low. The ceiling is high. I'm betting on Tajay Spears. I liked enough of what I saw both in the NFL scouting time and on the field where I'm in on Tajay. If I could trade him in a dynasty, I would. You would try to capitalize. I would try to capitalize on him being alone right now. Sure. I mean, yeah. I'm pretty afraid. I was speaking more in redraft of like this coming season. How do I view him? Because Mike is right. If you're talking dynasty, he still has the concerns of his longevity with his knee. He's going to burn bright.

and then probably be a light that goes out. Devon A. Chan. It's quite the story. It was a fun story. It was a weird one. Lightning Bolt, you know, 100 carries, 800 yards, eight touchdowns. Those numbers don't really make sense together. Like 100 carries shouldn't be 800 yards? 7.8 yards per carry. 37 targets, 27 catches, 3 touchdowns through the receiving game. So he was double digits. but missed multiple times this year with injury. You know, we knew that the end couldn't be as good as the beginning was for the season. The first three, you know, three, four, five weeks three, four, five were amazing. Slowed down a little bit, right? If he didn't hit the big play, you were disappointed. Yeah, but he hit the big play a lot looking at this, you know, long run of the game, 67 yards, 55 yards, 76 yards, 45 yards. He had a lot of home runs.

That's just the ability that he has and also matched with this specific offense and the system, McDaniel and the speed of Waddle and Tyreek. It's just really, really hard to always be able to bottle up a player like this. But even without those big giant breakway plays, it seemed like most times he touched the ball was just like guys couldn't get to him fast enough. And at his current age, he's 22 years old, I think. you know, you're not yet to his prime. So I am in love. Okay. So we've got a sliding scale, Mike. There is love. Okay. On one end of it. I, you know, he didn't read any of the lower weeks in terms of production, which he did have, but we all know he's one playaway. I, most it'll be back.

What round is A-chan drafted in this coming season? Third, second third? Yeah, round the second third, two, three turn. I don't, here's my one comma. I wouldn't want A-chan as my running back one. That's my, that's my thought. Not the archetype that I want for my RB1. I don't want a player that can go out there and get seven carries, nine carries, seven carries in a game, eight carries in a game. Now, I'm not saying I wouldn't want them as my two. That'd be awesome. Little freaked out as my one. Yeah. I would love him as my fourth. All right. You're real funny. Thank you. How are you going to do that? I'll trade for a lot of running back. Oh. He's just, he's just, he's just making fun of the fact that I'm like, if you pick your perfect world. Yeah. I think you're going to have to take him. I mean, if you go RBRB, you can be here too. There you go. Yeah. There's your world. I'm in, though. I'm in with Jason. So he finished that, uh, what was he in points per game? Oh, I'll try and figure that for you.

He'll be a good discussion next year. But it's players that have those kind of breakaway runs. You know, is he C. Is he Chris Johnson? Right. Is he C.J. Spiller? Is he job at best? That'll be interesting. He was fourth in points per game. Behind his teammate, Rahim Mostert. Rahim Mostert was third at 17 points per game. Devon A. Chan was 16.1 points per game. And while, yes, that does include the 49 point explosion, it also includes two games where he scored one fantasy point. I think it'd be fair to say 7.8 per carry is not going to happen, right? I'm not sure why you'd say that. But after that run, he was at 5.3. And that can happen. 5.3 is Jamal Charles, right? Which is a good comp for him. Yeah. If he can stay healthy, too. That's the risk is it wasn't a good.

season that way. Pre-season two in-season injuries. That doesn't concern you for your love? I mean... It concerns me a little bit because of his size. But at the same time, it's like every single one of these players can get hurt. Nick Chubb's a big bruising back and unfortunately got hurt. Christian McCaffrey spent two years just being an injury prone. You can't ever rely on him. He's great when he's on the field, but he's injured. I'm not taking him with the one-on-one to like not missing. any time and getting you know leading the NFL and in rushing and being up there and carry so i mean obviously different body like the that sound like a guy with some love glasses on this is a five nine hundred and eighty pound running back that you just compared to mcalfrey and chub i mean yes anybody can get hurt on any play but come on well he's not he's not built to get 20 carries a game i let it off will not happen i let it off with saying

His size concerns me a little bit with the injuries. I mean, that was the not coming in. Is he big enough? Yeah, I mean, what was the answer? The answer was he was awesome. To me, that was my takeaway from the season. If you said was Devon A. Chan. Yeah, he was awesome. Yeah, he was very good. It was. All right, Tank Bigsby wasn't. Oh, man. Oh, Tank Bigsby. So if you came into the season and you expected. Tank Bigsby or Sean Tucker to do anything or to disrupt the people in front of them, you were misdirected. These were not like. The team thought he was going to. The Jack, Jacksonville? No, no, I don't know about that. Well, they spent a third. That's, I think. That's what, yeah, that's what I'm saying is drafting a running back on day two. Well, I mean, Charbonnet was a day two, was the second round pick, right? Those didn't get a lot of opportunity.

No, but I don't know that I've ever seen outside of like Cadarius Tony. I don't know if I've seen a player hurt their team more than Tank Bigsby. It was like when he got in the game, he just fumbled it right to the other team. It was like he might as well just hand the ball over. He did it so many times. You get down to the goal and they'd finally give him an opportunity. It was like mistake after mistake. Yeah, yeah, yeah. It wasn't always like it won't show up on the box score always, but. Eventually, they just said, it's like that interception. That was on Trevor. So he had, he had, he had 50 carries. He averaged 2.6 yards on those 50 carries. Impressed. He had one reception. And I remember a lot of talk about Mr. Hans over there. Yeah. I mean, this is, this is, this is not good. This was a disaster. Yeah. It's a disaster that feels like it almost makes Travis E.N.

feel even safer next year. Probably is. Because you're like, well, we just spent a third on a running back. Can we? It's not that teams won't because the Rams have shown that they will do that over and over. But I can't imagine it's hard to see a day two pick coming in at running back for Jacksonville. Yeah, and obviously ATN's a first round guy. So that's, it's a wild season. I think we all, even are the least bullish tank Bigsby person. was shocked by the lack of success. 100. And had he been able to come out and have success early, probably would have earned that role. But it just, it just all went sideways. And he dominated him preseason too. It was like everything was looking good. Well, and you ended up getting much more work for like Dearness Johnson and and other backs than Tank Bigsby. Because having Tank on the field was a negative for your team. Stank Bigsby. Yeah, it was this year. Yeah. Got him. Yeah. That's not a good nickname. We don't want that. He earned it though.

Okay. I mean, you know, you get what you deserve. Hey, Stank. Get over here. Last one we'll talk about it running back is Roshan Johnson, who had opportunities this year. 81 for 352 and 2, 40 targets, 34 receptions. That backfield is up in the air. Mm-hmm. I would certainly rather have Roshan than tank Biggsby moving forward. What about him versus Kendra Miller and the opportunities you see for both of them? There's, that's a really interesting comp because there's no world where Kendra Miller usurps Alvin Camara as the starter and just becomes like, hey, you are the running back one for this team. Whereas Rocheon could easily be the leadback next season. You know, there's a lot of question marks in Chicago. I don't think we.

have enough information right now in February to say who is going to be. We don't know the quarterback. We don't know this running back room. They ended up hating Deont de Foreman after good performances. Yeah, something weird happened. That was super weird. So we don't know. But what I do like about Rocheon is that there isn't already someone spectacular ahead of him. And he did show flashes from time to time. where it was like, okay, that was a good NFL game. Herbert will be there. I'm not saying you're wrong saying that Cleo Herbert isn't sensational, but clearly everything you just said about Rocheon, you could say the exact thing about about Khalil Herbert. 100%. I'm just saying that's not Alvin Camara level to overcome. Yeah, it's more like Ty Chandler and Madison going into a season where both guys have an opportunity. They could secure the favor of the team.

Roshan was good through the air, 4.3 of carry. It, you know, didn't see a ton of him. But we'll take a break. We'll come back. We'll talk about wide receivers. All right. Let's jump in here. Rookie wide receivers. This was, it was an interesting year. We've had an average of 3.7 rookie wide receivers per year finish in the top 36 for fantasy. This past year, we had Zayflowers, Rashi Rice, Jaden Reed, Jordan Addison, and then, of course. Puka Nakua. I love him. You see your love is in the air. Those two guys, man. Puka and H.N. Maybe it's because I drafted them. Yeah, I think it might be because you drafted them. I think maybe that it does have something to do with it. Yeah. Jackson Smith and Jigbo was the first off the board. A lot of people were bemoaning the fact that he went to Seattle. Yeah. In part because you were like, oh, they just got another great weapon, but also.

What does this mean for Metcalf? Lockett. He only had 52% of the snaps for the first month of the year. He was dealing with, I believe, wrist hand injury. Yep. And, I mean, give me the review of Jackson Smith and Jigba. This was the wide receiver 48. Did not really come on in a meaningful way for fantasy towards the end of the year. It started to see them use them more, but it was a really nasty offense. He feels. like everything just was held status quo of like his value you whatever you thought about jason coming into the NFL you probably still think that like if you felt he was clearly the number one wide receiver uh i don't think that he like he didn't cement it because he didn't come out and have a huge season but he didn't i didn't see anything on the field that took away from how i felt about

JSN in the pre-draft process. So it's, you're still in a wishful thinking, though, that things are going to change for Seattle with Lockett and Metcalf still under contract next year. Something could happen with Lockett, but as of right now, you would think that JSN is just a slot wide receiver. Let me ask you this, though, because JSN was 63 for 628 and 4. Okay. It's 10 a catch, okay? Quentin Johnson was 38 for 431 and 2, 11.3 a catch. So it was not up to what Jackson Smith and Jigba produced. Those aren't vastly different numbers, though. And they were used differently. I guess I'm just curious. I think a lot of people look at the rookie season for Quentin Johnson and say that's a death knell, right? Like rookie wide receivers that don't produce, like it doesn't always go their way moving forward. I wonder if that is.

Like if your opinion hasn't changed about JSN, is it going to not change again if this happens again next year? No, if this is what happens next year, then yeah, you would certainly have to adjust. But he was, they lock it and crude, they stayed, you know, pretty healthy. So it wasn't a ton of opportunity for JSN to really be the number two guy. And it just his season in totality, you know, over 600 yards. For fantasy purposes, that's bad. But for a rookie wide receiver, it's fine. And it's not like where Quentin Johnston was the number two guy. Like that Mike Williams injury was very early. Huge was thrust into an opportunity that maybe he wasn't ready for. But he failed in his opportunity where JSN to me didn't really fully get the opportunity yet. 29 of his 63 receptions were behind the line of season. Yeah, that's when you.

noted his yards per catch. I was going to say they were using him. That's almost 50% of all receptions were behind the line of script. Yeah, it's unacceptable for fantasy purposes. Obviously, there's going to be a change at coordinator. Yeah, that's Ronnell Moore. Yeah. And the change of coordinator, if you, if you haven't seen the clip of JSN talking about, someone was asking for, for Bears fans, like, hey, what do you, what do you think? We're, you know, we're grabbing your coordinator, you know, should they be happy? Oh, yeah, yeah. And JSN was like, uh is this live right now he's like um well he's a good guy yeah it was like whoa he did not like the offensive scheming there and i think that's a big part of it he didn't look bad to me so i'd agree with with mike in the sense that like when what he did was okay however i've cooled a little bit on him i thought you know he was a superstar and i don't know if he is or not yet but i'm less bullish on you know on that declaration because

My worry coming into this season was he wasn't going to get enough snaps. And yeah, the scheme was dumb and they used them behind the line of scrimmage and hopefully that changes. But he still got a ton of snaps. Average 64% of the snaps. There were, let's see here, there were six games where he was over 70% of the snaps. And here was his fantasy points playing 70 plus percent of snaps. 5.9 points, 6.8 points. 9.3, 6.8, 5.1, and 4.5. Like, that's really, really, really, really disappointing. Uh, yeah, and you don't know who the quarterback is. Is it Gino? We'll know in a few days. Right. Is it Justin Fields? Because Seattle's a top trade candidate for Justin Fields. You know, how would you feel? If Justin Fields landed in Seattle, I don't think you're feeling very good. No.

Because you've got multiple, you wouldn't feel good about any of those guys. I'd feel good about Justin Fields. Yeah. Yeah. If Justin Fields traded to Seattle for D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, I'd be fine with it. That would make a difference. Quentin Johnston. Wouldn't that be the ultimate trade move to make as a GM? You want to prove that like. the quarterback isn't good, that Fields isn't going to have it. Trade for the wide receivers. Oh, you're saying give Fields nobody? Yeah. Take away his weapons in the trade. Just to prove that he's not going to come on and be this great quarterback. Like, I would trade him to Seattle, but they've got these great wide receivers who look so good. Well, we talked about, that's very funny. That is very funny. It kind of felt, yeah, yeah, it felt like that. What was the Russell Wilson trade with?

With Denver, they lost Noah Phant, right, when he went over there? Yeah. It felt like condemnation for Metcalf and Lockett when that happened. Quentin Johnston, 38 for 431 and 2. First round wide receivers was zero top 24 finishes as a rookie 6 2014. This is the list. The list is Josh Dotson. You can say the word bust after these. Okay. Josh Dodson. So you want to weigh in and say, were they an NFL bust? Yeah. Okay. So Josh Dodson. That's a bust. Laquan Treadwell. That's a bust. That's not a bust. John Ross? Bust. Nickyell Harry. Bust. Jalen Rager. Bust. Say the next one. Cunton, Johnston. I'll say this, though. Guess what? Mr. Jackson and Smith and Jigbo wasn't far off of this.

He had a QB. He had one, I think he had two wide receiver 24 finishes and a wide receiver 12. 16. He had a 16 of 24 and 24. Yeah. So, I mean, he was not, he's sliding in there. Just saying. That's some idea. Three is better than zero. Well, yeah, I mean, I guess by the skin of his teeth, right? How far off was Quentin? What were his big games? I will pull that up for you. Let's see. I just speaking to, William Johnston's 28, 25, and 31. That's not far from Jason. No, that's not far. So look, dynasty-wise. That's as a full-time player. That's the difference. Dynasty-wise, yeah, full-time player with backup quarterbacks though, Mike. Justin Herbert was gone. What did Herbert get hurt? During the year. Also, you say Herbert was hurt in week.

14. I would maybe be trying to move on from Jason is all I'm saying. Yeah. If you want to do that, I think you can still get tremendous value. Yeah, that would be the time to. So he, Herbert would have been around for the Detroit game, the 38 to 41 loss. I'm not saying. If you look at weeks four through 13, okay, that's post Mike Williams and including Herbert, right? All right. I think those are the important games where you go, okay, what was his opportunity and what did he do with it? He played 66% of those snaps and his season long pace. It's as bad as it gets. Would have been a grand total of 408 yards on the season from Justin Herbert. Fewer than 40 receptions. It was awful. It was as bad as you can get. It's terrible. You can't trade him. You have to hold him and hope it's better. That's your philosophy. You can't get. Can you get anything for him? You cannot. No.

No, it's not allowed. Not allowed. The platforms aren't. I believe Laquan Treadwell is the only trade candidate that you can get. But he does have Herbert moving forward. But if you try real hard, you could get a second. You just have to like keep at it. Yeah. Yeah. Would you trade Quentin Johnston for a second rounder? I think the way you could do that is if you say, would you trade him for a third? And then when I say yes, you go, that it was a second, right? And then if I accidentally say yes, what you do is you message the person, not in the system and say a third. They say yes, deal. Then you send the trade offer over with a two in there. There will be no problems. No problems. And then when they accept and later they go, wait, wait, I thought it was a three. You said, oh, no, I didn't like that compensation. So I sent that offer. You saw it. Would you rather have? I mean, QEG will have Justin Herbert. Jason will have competition and no quarterback right now.