Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Early TE Rankings

You're saying he doesn't have the ability to do inside the 10 what they did? To some degree, yes. All right. I agree. I mean, I disagree with the contention that his touchdowns go up. But look, the numbers, if you want to lean it on the side that Travis Kelsey isn't bad inside the 10, the numbers would come back, right? They'd come back to some better proportion of those targets being touchdowns. If that's the case, if Kelsey had eight touchdowns, he's a guaranteed lock is the top three tight hit.

Yes. So you brought this up with T.I. Helton or some other wide receivers. There's not like when a guy is not heavily touchdown dependent, like Tyler Eifert. So Travis Kelsey is not touchdown dependent. He plays 16 games the last three years, not touchdown dependent. Your risk on Travis Kelsey of him being outside of the top 12 is like there's no chance other than injury. Right. And you're upside. If you're right and he goes up to eight touchdowns, it's humongous. But him dropping, he's not going to go under four. So.

And if he does, it would be. So Travis Kelsey, though, do you have him ranked ahead of Reed? No, I've got him behind Reed. So do you take Reed at the later ADP? Absolutely. So I'm making the case for those who take, for those who take Kelsey, but it won't be me in my drafts because of the value of where he's going. The price is not worth it. All right. Number four, Gregory. Gregory Olson. Jason's favorite player. Greg Olson, look, the consistency is incredible.

for Greg Olson. Since 2012, he's finished 6-7-4-5-3. His ADP's in the fifth round in a standard league. It's just at the end of the fourth in a PPR league. Last year, I think there was this, we looked at the year, and we said, okay, he started off on fire the story there, Jason trading for him, and then what happened at the back half of the year. Cam Newton wasn't the same player last year. Cam Newton's stateline wasn't the same last year. But Greg Olson is the same guy. He plays almost every snap.

Which you love, right? He doesn't come out the field. I took a look back because I just wanted to see how intense that was. And of the last 80 games, 51 times he has played 100% of the snaps. It's an Iron Man. That's ridiculous. Yeah, he's played what, 16 games every single year since 2008? So he's going to be on the field. He's a beast. Talk about like, you know, between Kelsey and Olson.

at what we have at 3-4 and the two guys at the very top. This is all risk aversion here. It absolutely. It's the ceiling. I mean, Greg Olson, he has, when everything switched for Greg Olson of everyone jumping on saying, oh, he's a top three guy. It was because he had a bit of a higher touchdown a year, but that's just, that's not who he is. I mean, you talked about Kelsey's targets from inside the 10.

Greg Wilson had two receptions of targets from inside the 10. One was a nine-yard touchdown. One was a negative two loss. And then you look at the pace when he started. You thought, whoa, he's on fire. He's going to be the best tied in. He had 94.1 PPR points, right? He was on a pace for 188. Travis Kelsey had 180. Yeah. So it wasn't actually that.

great. It was just he had a couple monster games at the beginning of the season, and we talk about this all the time. When a guy goes off in the first four games, it burns in your memory of this is what I expect for the rest of the year. Is there a team makeup in fantasy that would justify a Kelsey or Olson pick directly over Olson or Grancowski at the exact same draft position? Do you see what I'm saying? If you look at Reed and Grancowski,

Each in the last four years, there are zero combined seasons of 16 games. Sure. You look at Kelsey and Olson. Every single season is 16 games in the last four years for both of them. So is there an argument that can be made in your mind if you have a team, let's say you have some more risky players on your team. Is there a reason to just draft Greg Olson ahead of Jordan Reed? Is there a reason to a graph? I'm just saying you're on the clock. Sure. You're sitting there 405 and all four guys are on the board. Is there any situation where you would.

say, hey, my team has a certain makeup, so I'm going to take Travis Kelsey. Wait, all four, as in Gronk as well? Sure. If we take him out, then I could say yes. Okay. I wouldn't, I mean, the ceiling is just too high. But I do think, I mean, one of the, you know, the quick question of the day was streaming tight ends and quarterbacks, both are valuable. But I will say this, when you are weekly, every single week streaming both becomes a little bit more difficult because you've got to pay more for Fab and more waiver wire. You've got to drop more guys. So.

When you grab a Greg Olson, that frees you up, that roster spot where you know you're not going to be streaming the position, gives you a little bit more security. And if you know you're a late round quarterback, which if you listen to the show, I'm sure you are, then that has a helpful nature to the way that you play. I know we have to bust through these tight ends and we have a lot on the list. But another question is popping into my mind that I just have to ask you guys. Let's say you took Gronkowski at the back of the second round, okay?

Let's say you're in the fifth round. Zero percent chance. I already know what you're going to ask. Would you take Jordan Reed in the fifth? Zero percent. Even if you have a league with a flex position, you don't think that the value could be there for Jordan Reed. With the touchdown totals or reception totals. And people frequently ask about this, especially when it was a preemptive strike from our listeners on their behalf. Well, and they often, when it was gronk and Graham was, I'm going to take them both because they're, you know.

The problem with that. Eric Hernandez and Rob Grankowski years ago. The problem with that is, I mean, maybe your league has two tight end slots. That's a completely different argument. But if you're talking about for the flex, it's a flexible spot. If you take two tight ends that early, that is not a flexible spot anymore. You are locked into playing two tight ends or you're playing the game of, well, I'm going to draft him and I'm going to trade him later. It's just.

And I think that's not a game I play. I think more importantly than that is what you are losing. You are now saying that in two of your top five picks, you don't get another running back or wide receiver, which you need multiple players every week. So, yeah, I mean, that's my worry is they might be worth it points-wise, but you're losing out on more important positions. Well, Jordan Reed last year, I know he missed some time. That would have put him in the Jordan Matthews range of total points scored.

in terms of what he put up last year, which is like, I don't know, wide receiver 40 or something like that. If you look at what Kelsey put up, however, you're in the wide receiver 17 range, 18 range, just for perspective. That's gross. Julian Edelman, Demarius Thomas. I mean, obviously, Demarius Thomas is sitting there in the fifth round. There's no chance on earth you're taking Travis Kelsey or Jordan Reed. Do not draft two tight ends unless you have to start two tight ends. Public service announcement. Number five on our list.

The much begrudged Jimmy Graham. Yeah. Much maligned. That's a better word for it. Look, you just have to look at the consistency numbers. Brooks put together this doc showing you kind of the rankings and the consistency of these tight ends. Look, he had the major injury, but you go back to 2011. Here's his ranks and how we finish the season. Two, one, one, three, breeze, 18.

which was the injury year. And then four last year. Yeah. No, it was last year. And they used him. They used him and they looked to use him on the field. And he came back from the injury and nobody expected the season that we had here. And nobody's expecting it again because he's going in the middle of the sixth round. So here's my thing for Jimmy Graham. I can absolutely astonishing comeback from the injury that he suffered. I mean, tip of the cap to the work ethic of Jimmy Graham busting his butt to get back. Where it's interesting for Graham.

And you don't, there is no definitive answer for this. His first eight games, he came out, you know, pretty, pretty on fire for a tight end. He was the tight end four in points per game, 38 receptions, 545 yards and three touchdowns. That's the first eight games. The second eight games, though, so I guess the second half of the season, tied in 12 and points per game, which is still, that's still okay.

He ended up finishing the tight end nine. But where it becomes interesting, you have to figure out what narrative do you want to buy into? Did he wear down the second half of the year? Completely possible with the injury that he suffered. But you would think that his production would actually go up because the second half of the year, that's when Russell Wilson was actually healthy, when he could actually extend plays, run around.

And you can see that in Russell Wilson's rushing yards when he went about 4X in the second half of the season. So it was with that the playability to extend things. It brings you some pause. Why did Jimmy Graham's production not, or why did it come down so much? Right. Well, and another thing I would just say as a little point of worry. And I like Jimmy Graham. He's, I think, my number six.

personally, my number six tight in this year, is you look at all of those guys. When we were arguing about whether Travis Kelsey's eight targets should yield more, I named a bunch of other guys that had seven, eight targets. Jimmy Graham had two targets inside of the tent on the years. Those have to go up. Maybe, or maybe that's just how they're using it. Maybe they get down there and they're trying to run the ball and they...

I hope they're not using them to block. That's fruitless. Two targets inside the tin is unprecedented for Jimmy Graham because he's an ISO guy. You throw him out on the outside. You ISO him on an LB or a DB and you just throw him up and throw the ball. I would say this. I do think that your assertation that it would go up is the right call. He had as far as inside the 20. You know, most people just look at Red Zone. He had 17 targets inside the 20.

But only two were inside the tent. They just need to scooch it up. Scoot you. Just get a little closer. All right. Number six on our consensus rankings is my number four guy. A guy I have ahead of Travis Kelsey, the aforementioned, and Jimmy Graham. That seems pretty high, Andy. Tyler Eifert. Where do I have him? Oh, gosh. Where do you have him? Tell me, Mike. Number three, baby. Sure. Okay, so I got him four.

That means Jason's pulling him down. Getting him way down. He's holding on. All the way down to number seven. We're trying to bring him to the front of the line and Jason's holding on to his ankles, yanking him behind. I don't blame him because the guy can't stay healthy. But Tyler Eifert is my number four, Mike's number three, our consensus number six. And he is being drafted ahead of Jimmy Graham. And I would take him ahead of Jimmy Graham as well. I mean, Tyler Eifert, when he's on the field.

I think he's the highest efficiency points per fantasy points per target of any tight end in the league, but you're betting on him being able to stay on the field. So here's the thing. We are on, we're on tight net. We're on tight end number six with Tyler Eifford. We've discussed two guys who are actually safe. So for me, it's all about draft price and the possible return on that risk. And Tyler Eifford.

is he has top three potential. He's a touchdown machine. We've already seen that high risk. He's never played 16 games. I had a fun fact down here that his career yards is 1,491 yards. That's in four seasons. That's only 164 yards more than Gronk had in his second season. Like one season. So I just thought that was kind of funny for how long Eifford has played. But.

When he was on the field last year, weeks 8 through 14, so that takes off his first game back and his injury game out. He was the tight end one in points per game. The yardage came up. That was the knock on eye for it was, the yardage wasn't there and his draft price was way too high for me. But as of right now, these guys who are in that upper tier of tight end who can finish.

high and really be a difference maker every single week. I think Eifford is the guy who I'm looking at putting my chips on in the back of the fifth round. What you saw from Iver last year wasn't much different than what you saw from him during his breakout season. If you project his games last year over the season, it's 58 for 78 and 10. His breakout year was 52 for 615 and 13. So he's not going to be an 85 catch guy. That's not going to happen with Tyler and Eifer. However,

he's a touchdown monster. I mean, he's a double-digit guy. And if there's anybody I was going to bet on with double-digit touchdowns other than Grankowski over a full healthy season, I'm betting on Eifford above them all. I would agree with that. But you just spoke to why he's my number seven, and I don't have him quite as high because, you know, while I said, you know, I would consider taking Jordan Reed, you know, late third, I don't need to. He's back of the fourth.

and Eiffert is early fifth. So they're near each other. And I would much rather have the guy who's also had double-digit touchdowns who can get up near 100 receptions because he's the center of the offense. There's no doubt AJ Green is the center of the offense for Tyler Eifert. Personally, there are guys later, and I'm going to segue right into my favorite guy this year, Kyle Rudolph. Yeah, don't blame you here. Jordan Reed's ADP is going to ruin everybody, isn't it? His ADP being so low?