Fantasy Football Podcast 2017 - Early TE Rankings

Whereas Gillisley is, you know, he was great at goal line last year. So I expect Legerat Blunt or Gillisley or draft pick or someone to come in as well. You have to, you have to wonder if like, you know, this is, hey, Ligarrett, look who we're bringing in. Yeah, bringing in some more guys, except our offer. That's, that's how it feels to me. And for your point, Jay, it certainly could be, I mean, because we saw, we have evidence of Gillisley being very successful, but they're basically the same size. I mean, Gillisley's 5-11.

218, Rex Burkheads 510-2-10. I mean, there's not much difference between those two guys. All right, let's get on to the tight ends. Before we get there, though, we want to remind everybody, all the listeners. We are so grateful and thankful for the amazing listeners of this show, the Foot Clan.

genuine thank you for helping make us one of the larger podcasts out there. If you want to be a part of the show and a part of the community, be able to, you know, we do a Thursday special podcast. Today's Thursday every day, every week with just questions from the Foot Clan over at Join the Foot. So if you want to support the show, get an extra episode, get extra questions answered and a bunch, a bunch of other cool stuff. Access to Foot Clan leagues.

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or run away from it. That's it right there. All right, number one on our consensus, tight-in rankings, our early 2017 rankings. And just a reminder to everybody, you can't find a rankings on the website, the fancy footballers.com. These are our average rankings when you look at how Mike and Jason and myself initially set forth our tight-ins and project them for 2017. Coming in, number one, appropriately, I think. Rob Grankowski, still just 28 years old. We know the story.

of Rob Grankowski. It's the story of when he's healthy, he's the most dominant force in the league at the tight-in position. He can win you a week. Possibly in football. Yeah. No, that's honestly the truth. He's a monster. He does everything great for a tight end. He's not just a pass-catching tight end. He is also a tremendous blocker. But last year was insane for Rob Grancowski. Of course, when he was actually on the field.

His career average is 14.5 yards per reception. Last year in basically six games, 21.6 yards per reception. I mean, the guy was not ridiculous. He was averaging over 100 yards per game. It was out of control. The question for Gronk will be, is he ready? I mean, I know he says he's ready. And by the looks of WrestleMania, you would think that he's ready to go. But will he be?

Will he be fully ready when the season comes ran? And what will that draft price be? Because I'm never willing to go in on a tight end in the first round. I'm hesitant at the top of the second. But as we've been moving through these guys, statting people, I'm finding this very nebulous blah group that I just am not liking. So I'm actually warming to the idea if I'm in the middle of the second round.

you know, early third round pick that I would actually take Grunk. And this will be, that would be the first time I've ever done it. I'm, I don't even know what to make of that. Yeah. That's interesting. And I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm on board with that as well, which is, which is a little different for me. If you think about it this way, right? If Gronk had an amazing year last year, if he played 15 or 16 games last year, he's drafted in the middle of the first round the next year.

When he does that, the next year he's a number one draft pick. He doesn't get injured anymore. Right, as if he doesn't get injured anymore. But then he gets injured and it's like, well, he's now a late two. Well, no, he's not. He's the same guy that was worthy of a first round pick. Oh, yeah. You're gambling on trying to get 16 games out of him. But maybe Brandon Cooks and more, I mean, maybe his usage goes down a little bit, which keeps him healthy. But he is a value. Right now he's at the 212.

Yeah, he's finally, I think the years of injury have finally knocked him back, especially with him missing later in the season. If you looked at that span there in October, November, the six games where he was healthy, his projected pace is like 1,800 yards. I mean, it's another tier. Unsustainable. Unsustainable, yes. But when you can put out a six games stretch like that, you know, you've seen the career. You've seen the history. He's finished 8th, 1st, 4th.

First back to back in 2014 and 2015. Only injury has kept him out of the top three. That's it. And last year he was 24. So it took him about six games to be a tight end too. Yeah. But I mean, in this list, you're going to find guys who are have injury problems with top three upside and guys who are just kind of. They don't get you up in the morning. If they play 15 or 16 games, you would welcome them to the roster. Yes, he would.

So I want to transition now to number two. Number two on our consensus rank is Jordan Reed, all right? And you just made the case for Rob Grankowski and spending some earlier draft capital on Rob Grankowski. Does Jordan Reed fall more into that nebulous uncertainty? Or does he, is he just kind of like, where are you with him compared to last year? Because he was 12 games last year, 14 the year before. He's never played a 16 game season and it's four years in the NFL.

And I believe the 12 is kind of the official, but just like Gromk has an official eight, but he really only played like six. Well, realistically, I mean, you remember after he took the hit that knocked his collarbone out of his body. Right. And he still tried to play games and was completely useless until the final week of the season. So he was out there technically, but he wasn't really doing anything. So it's, I don't know the actual number. I would say, you know, it's probably nine games that he really played.

But it's the same spot for Jordan Reed. Last price check on him was the back of the fourth round. And for PPR, I mean, that's outrageous because Jordan Reed is, he's a bit different than these other tight ends where you have the high touchdown upside. But he's a 10 yard per catch guy where most tight ends, you know, they're in that.

11 plus area. And they always get a good chunk when they get a reception. But Jordan Reed is just, he's fed the ball. I think I mentioned this on the last show that when Jay Gruden was asked about the offense, he said the offense runs through Jordan Reed. And that's why it gets hurt so much. They run right through it. Yeah. The reality is, right, we just talked about gronk being worth.

that second round, you know, some years he's worth that first round. Now, he's good value late second round. In a PPR, which is becoming more and more common, we play in half point, all of our, you know, the Foot Clan Leagues.com, those are half points. And when you get points per reception, full PPR, I have them statted out, you know, in our UDK. Gronk has 245 points on the season, according to how I believe it's going to play out. Jordan Reed has 244.

So you'll take him in the 412 versus 212. Absolutely. I'll take him in the back of the third to make sure I get him if I'm in a full point PPR league. That would be a really tough call for me. And I see the logic behind it because the touchdown upside of Gronkowski, those weak winning performances, that might pull me up to him. Sure.

Two rounds later for Jordan Reed? Jordan Reed has those. I mean, just remember. You're going to need to draft them both if you want to tighten in there every week. And look, you lose Deshaun Jackson and you lose Pierre Garsohn. Yes, you brought in, you know, Terrell Pryor and you have Doxon coming up. But there's no chemistry there's one guy. Well, Crowder as well. But Jordan Reed has that chemistry. Yep. No doubt. Risk versus reward on injury.

I forgot to tease this earlier. We have a show after the show on YouTube today. Speaking of pain. Speaking of injury and pain, we're going to get into some, what, gruesome childhood injuries? Childhood, yes. Just things that have to be gruesome? I was just teasing it. That's how you sell something. Oh, you won't believe injury number two. You won't believe injury number two. I will tell you one of those stories involves underpants. Oh, well, all right. My story involves...

Roller blades. Okay, all right. You had me at underpants. All right. Number three on our consensus, top 15 or so tight-ins. Travis Kelsey, Travis Kelsey, the number one tight-in in 2016. We've talked about it at length. Last year was a bit of a down year for the tight-in position as a whole. Obviously, these top two guys on our rankings, both didn't play a full season. I think if either of them had.

Oh, yeah. Travis Kelsey's not sitting there at the top of the list. That being said, Travis Kelsey, three straight years, 16 games, three straight years, a top 10 tied in. If a guy can be seven and eight in 2014 and 2015 and jump up to that one, two, three range like you did last year, you have to look at him and say, hey, if I draft Travis Kelsey. Oh, man, that ADP, though. If you draft Travis Kelsey, he's healthy.

But he's being drafted ahead of Jordan Reed. Where is his ADP right now, Andy? In PPR, it's 310. Yes. In standard, it's 405. And both of those are higher than Jordan Reed. I just can't see the – look, the offense in Kansas City, they've installed a ceiling on that offense. And his name is Alex Smith. And there's just the volume. And the consistency level is there. It just –

brings me pause, right? It brings me pause for those otherworldly type of games. I really like Travis Kelsey. I think Travis Kelsey has every physical ability to put up a number one type of season. He does have every physical ability to do that. And Travis Kelsey was the most interesting guy when I was going through Stating, maybe tied with Kyle Rudolph for me. These two guys, I really was intrigued by what I saw when you look at the numbers, when you look at the film, you take everything together. Kelsey,

You know, he missed his rookie year, right? So his rookie year was his sophomore year. But in that year, you know, he had 67 receptions. The next year, 72, the next year 85. These are trending upwards. He is a freak of talent. I mean, there's no doubt that he is as capable as any other. You put Travis Kelsey on the Patriots, and I'm not saying he is gronk, but he is going to be definitely worth it. But when I was digging into, like, the knock on Kelsey is touchdowns.

Right? I mean, he's just not, he's not a crazy touchdown guy. Five touchdowns. Five touchdowns. This last year, only four. But I looked into how they were using him and those valuable red zone targets for tight ends. And one thing stuck out to me that was crazy. You have a list of guys, other guys. Are these red zone or these? These are 10 and in, right? The really truly valuable things. Because from the 10 to the 20, you know, it's not that crazy value.

So inside the 10, Jordan Reed had eight targets. He got five touchdowns. Gronk had six targets, got five touchdowns. Gates had eight targets. How do you got a touchdown? You can get, do you score them? Do you score them? I got got. I didn't want to hear that like 45 more times the rest of the episode, so I apologize. So Gates, eight targets, five touchdowns. He took them. So those are great tight ends. Cameron Bray, eight.

targets four touchdowns. Martell's Bennett, seven targets, four touchdowns. All inside from the 10. Targets inside the 10. And Travis Kelsey got eight targets inside the 10, but only one touchdown out of that. That, you know, when you talk about Cameron Bray and Hunter Henry is there and all those other guys, when you get that amount of targets, you should have more touchdowns for a tight end his size.

In that, so I think his touchdowns go up this next year. Yeah, and I, and I, you know this. I said in the studio, I don't agree with you. I think, you know, you can look at a style like that and say, Travis Kelsey's not as good at scoring touchdowns in other tight ends. I mean, five. But that's ridiculous. Why is it ridiculous? He's had five, five, and four the past three years. The reason it's ridiculous is because there's nothing in Travis Kelsey.

When you watch film, his ability to catch, his ability to box out. I don't agree with you. I think Travis Kelsey is not in the Grancowski mold. He is not. I agree with that. He is a yards after the catch type of guy. And last year, to me, the reason he made the jump up is he went from the 60-70 reception range to the mid-80s. So you're, but what you're saying then is, I agree he's not Grong. But an old Antonio Gates, a young Hunter Henry, a Cameron Brate, all those guys.