Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - Early Breakouts for 2016, News, Mailbag

22 years old. The season started out great for Moncrief, if you remember. He had five touchdowns through week seven, and then old Andy Luck. What happened to his quarterback? Andy Luck took some battle damage, and he went down, and then Andrew Luck actually came back for a little bit, and then he took some more battle damage to the... What's wrong with ESPN reporter Matt Hasselbeck is your quarterback?

And so like you said, Matt Hasselbeck was the guy. And Moncrief actually still did okay occasionally with Hasselbeck. However, the splits, when you look at Moncrief last year when he had Andrew Luck versus did not. Huge difference. Huge difference. He's putting up over five PPR points a week higher, a full reception.

0.6 touchdowns. The targets were up by over two. His reception yards were up. So here's the theme of that. He was much better when Andrew Luck was the quarterback. I'm expecting Andrew Luck to have a bounceback type of a season. I'm not calling Andrew Luck as a top three quarterback, just saying he will be much improved from what he was last year. And way improved over a hassleback. Yes, and a huge improvement.

What is your guy's problem with Matt Hasselbeck? You are disparaging. I like the man. I don't like the quarterback. I believe my words were, what's wrong with Matt Hasselbeck? I believe my words were, oh, actually, here's what I think Jason has the problem. The hairlines are starting to match. That's a low blow, Mike. You're welcome. So I like Moncrief a lot moving forward. Please don't forget about him. I think that he will also be able to be had.

In those middle rounds, he'll be... Because I won't draft him. Yeah, we have the Moncrief, the ultimate Moncrief hate to say it. I will take small issue here. I don't agree. Why is that? Because I don't think Moncrief is the guy that's going to give you consistent yardage numbers. Even with Andrew Lucky, he averaged like 50 yards a game. He was touchdown dependent, and that's what made him look so good in the beginning of the year. I think it balances out a little bit. I don't think the talent is a problem. I think there will be games like that, but that would be my one argument against Moncrief. But, hey, it's your breakout.

Yeah, and I think that... There you go. For a guy who's touchdown dependent, putting him on a high-scoring offense, he should be the red zone end-zone type guy. He's the one who's built for it on the team. You got T. Y. Hilton. Audrey Hilton's gone. Tiny T. Yelton and Philip Dorset. Now, Dwayne Allen is a red zone guy, and he's been promised his role will improve. However, I just... I see Moncrief.

continuing his ascension like he did when at the first half of the year. All right, we got to move on. Next breakout, I'm going to bring it to you. Jason tried to steal him from me after I convinced him about this guy. But it's Eric Ebrun from Detroit. I really like this guy. He doubled his production from his rookie year to last year, but he didn't do it in a fashion that will make the world all excited about him. But I'm telling you, he's 22 years old. This is the former number 10 pick in the draft, 64, 245.

He had eight games last year with four or more receptions, and Calvin Johnson is gone now. And they did bring in Marvin Jones, but the thing you need to know about Detroit is that they are an incredibly efficient red zone team. I believe they were second last year in red zone scoring percentage. Well, this is somebody who, they've been able to do this, and Calvin plays a role in that.

Eric Ebrun, I think he takes the next step this year in his third year. I have him projected for, and here was an interesting thing, and I asked Mike this before the show, what do you think the target difference was between Tyler Eifert, everybody's favorite tight end, and Eric Ebron last year, who, by the way, they both missed a couple games. Well, the difference was three. There was a three target difference between the two, but...

Eric Eberon had five touchdowns. Eifford had like 13, right? And so that's the big difference. So I project Ebron, I don't think he's going to take a leap into the stratosphere, but he becomes a viable every week starting tight in. I got him at 72 for 805 and nine touchdowns next year. Eric Ebron was drafted as what position. Last year? No, in the NFL draft, just to show that talent.

He was a top 10, like Andy had already previously said. Oh, did he say that already? Yeah, he was number 10. I don't listen to you. I thought you were saying it like he was drafted at a different position. I was like a lineman? I don't know. Kicker. Your point is my point reinforced. And it's the fact that he is a talented guy. And so I really like it. The opportunities there. Calvin was number one in the league and, you know, what, red zone touchdowns over the last.

seven years. So you lose a guy like that. You've got to look elsewhere and Stafford can get the ball to big guys in the end zone. He's just got to catch him. Yeah, that's going to be the issue. I'll make my next breakout pretty quick because this one, I worry just a little bit if he were to not be the guy. So this has to be prefaced with the fact that he has to be the starting running back because this is all about opportunity, which is.

Ryan Matthews. I was super high on him last year because he is a very, very talented guy, right? But obviously opportunity comes before talent and DeMarco Murray was the guy who got the opportunity last year. That being said, the talent could still be seen. DeMarco Murray last year managed 3.64 yards per carry. DeMarco? Yeah, DeMarco did. Behind the same offensive line where Ryan Matthews averaged 4.

five yards per carry. And we have to remember, Ryan Matthews is a very good running back. It's been several years now since his very productive year with the San Diego Chargers, which is why I think we can call this a breakout again, even though he was already a, I think he was the 13th best running back a couple years ago. But another thing to add to that, it's not just the fact that now Ryan Matthews is the starter, but Kansas City last year and the last several years, Doug Peterson is the new head coach.

for the Eagles, and Kansas City has finished top five in rushing touchdowns all three years that Doug Peterson was his offensive coordinator. So last year they were tied for the most touchdowns, and that was without Jamal Charles. So I think you've got an offense here that is going to be changing, going to be focused on rushing touchdowns and a West Coast offense that fits Ryan Matthews. I project him.

to get the ball. Now, this is if they don't go and bring someone else in or trade him away because that could still happen for the Eagles. They're getting rid of everything Chip Kelly touched. It's a fire sale. He's got the Kelly disease. But if he is the starter, I would say he's going to get the ball 250 times, and he'll be over 1, and he'll have at least 8 touchdowns. That's going to be an RB1, and he's definitely not going to be drafted in the first round like an RB1. I don't think. Well, he won't go in the first round, but let's hypothesize here. Philadelphia has done nothing.

as far as adding a running back. Ryan Matthews is seen as the clear-cut guy. Where is his ADP? I believe he'll go, if he's seen as the every-down guy, he'll go end of the second is where I think he'll be. Yeah, I would agree with that. I would guess right around the third round. Yeah, if you could grab it, if he falls into the third and you're grabbing an RB1 type of talent in the third round, that's great. Go grab, you know, Mr.

Antonio Brown with that number one pick and then get Ryan Matthews in the third on the turn. I did not give my Moncrief stat line. I forgot to do that. I got him at 85,050, and 7 touchdowns. Okay. Just so everyone was it. I can get behind that. I like Moncrief a lot coming into this last year. All right. Third breakout from each of us. Mike, who's your guy? So my third guy here, I think I can finally get Andy on board with one of my picks here.

because I'm going with Tyler Lockett. Tyler Lockett, as you recall, from Seattle, really, really had a, he broke out there in the second half of the year. Almost all of his fantasy production came there. In the first six weeks, he was scoring about four points, a clip there, and then he exploded in the final 10 to about 13 a game. He scored...

Quite a few touchdowns, but not nearly anything close to his compadre, Doug Baldwin. So there is still some wealth that can be spread around to Tyler Lockett. Seattle basically sold the farm. They sold the second half of their draft to move up just to get Tyler Lockett, where at the beginning of the year it looked like he would just be the special teams guy. And you saw him on kick returns. You saw the talent.

and how special Lockett can be once he has the ball in his hands. They finally figured out how to do that towards the second half of the year when the team made a fundamental switch to the scoring was coming through the air, and Marshall Lynch is gone. We don't know what they're going to do with their running back position. It looks like Thomas Rawls for now, but that's still very up in the air. I see Tyler Lockett not necessarily as a super stud.

But I see him as a Deshaun Jackson where he's going to have his down games, but he'll have more up games than not. And when he goes up, he's going to explode. It's going to be 70 yards, two touchdowns. So he'll have his monster games. Jermaine Curse was resigned, so that's kind of a frowny face upon that. But I believe that Lockett will...

supplant himself as the number two, and that curse will be the third option. And Jimmy Graham, I don't expect him back at all this year. This talk of Jimmy Graham was going to be ready for week one. I remember when they said Victor Cruz was going to be ready week one. I really like Lockett. I'm with you on that. I think what I like about him is that he isn't just a burner. I mean, and I don't consider Deshaun Jackson just a burner either. He has the ability to go deep, but he showed me a lot in the second half of the last year.

just with the ability to, you know, balance and body control, making hard sideline catches. He's got a work ethic. You know, if you listen to him in interviews that tells me he wants to become a great wide receiver. He wants to become somebody that is in that upper echelon, and that translates to fantasy. So I'm on board with you with Tyler Lockett. I think there's a much better chance that things even out between him and Baldwin in terms of distribution of touchdowns, and I don't think Russell's throwing 60 of them. But I think that Lockett is a... So I've got Lockett coming in.

So let's see what you think of my stat line here. I got him at 70 for 900 yards and seven touchdowns. More or less. I would take, I'd probably take the touchdowns to six or seven. Yeah, I'm okay with that. I think the yards could be higher. Could be. I think the receptions could be a little lower and the yards could be higher. But yeah, I'm fine with that. I'm going to go ahead and jump on the bandwagon with wide receiver breakouts here. I'm going to give you my last guy, and he's Michael Floyd from the Arizona Cardinals.

He has been on the cusp several times. He's climbed the mountain. Look, he's in the final year of his contract. He's a high work ethic guy. And if you recall, at the beginning of last year, we didn't even know the severity of it at the time. He had a very severe hand injury. Is that bad when you're a wide receiver if you got your hands? I don't want to get grotesque here, but I believe his finger literally came out of the skin. His knuckles. Didn't it come out of the glove?

possible possible and i'm going to give you some insider information over here uh we play flag football i i sprained my thumb i couldn't i couldn't even play no mike had his chance before or after mike mike plays linebacker he had his chance to come in we were down a man we needed a wide receiver i felt like michael floyd and i said i said mike go run me go run me a post corner and i throw him the ball

Perfect pass, by the way. And it was a perfect pass. I mean, just naturally. The pass was, you're overrating how perfect the pass was. It was a 9 out of 10. And then Mike shot his hands up and darted his thumb into the ball. The ball just drops. And the ball drops. And Mike, he's done. He's finished. And his opportunity was gone as well. So I like Michael Floyd. He, look, the second half of the season, he was over four receptions a game. He had 100 or more yards receiving in five games. That's not an anomaly. That is.

a consistent kind of like make a big difference on your team, make a fantasy impact. I got him for 75, but I got him for 1, 10 touchdowns. So you have Michael Floyd, wide receiver 1. I have Michael Floyd right on that wide receiver 1, yeah. That's not right on. That's 75 for 1, 210. 1210. Yep. You're a 1. That's a definite 1. And I do think that that is a realistic possibility for him next year. I probably won't.

project him to finish that high. But I don't have any problem believing that he could finish that high and drafting him accordingly if that's what, you know, you look at the tape and you believe. And I know, Andy, you've been high on him coming off of last year, you were saying for the last, you know, month or two, that's my guy. That's your guy. That's your breakout guy. It's time because Larry Fitzgerald is going to be a free agent after this season.