The TRUTH About Fantasy WRs in 2020, Part 2 - Fantasy Football Podcast for 2/4

And he's just amazing. He tweeted when they used to party, I went to work out. He's a hard worker. And if you are unaware, so he had surgery cleanup procedure on both knees. He was told that he probably would miss the season after the injury early in the season. He chose to play through it. And he did it pretty well. Yeah. So he did that last year. Very hurt.

It was an absolutely sensational year for AJ Brown. So I'm with you guys that he will be a player you need to look for the value of if he's going around 11 or so, that's going to be an absolute smash draft selection. Currently, he has the second highest yards per target for the first two years of a career behind only Mike Wallace. AJ Brown is absolutely incredible. And he, AJ Brown, like this is.

You have the proof of concept two years ago, but now you have essentially full season. He can coexist with Derek Henry, and they can all get theirs in that Tennessee Titans offense. Now, do you, let me throw this out. Do you guys have any concerns for A.J. Brown and Ryan Tannenhill with them losing their offensive coordinator? I really don't. I really don't. I really don't.

I think one of the things that happens here with AJ Brown and maybe the reason why he'll be underdrafted beyond the beginning of the year is his quarterback. You say, well, Patrick Mahomes and Tyreek Hill, that combination. It's dynamic. It's incredible. And Ryan Tannenhill still has a number two stink on him. I'm telling you, my mind was blown. John Paulson tweeted out a comparison of the last 26 regular season starts between Patrick Mahomes and Ryan Tannehill. Now,

Tanahill has a better completion percentage. Mahomes kills him in yards. It's almost, it's over. It's a little embarrassed. It's over a thousand more yards in that span. But outside of that, Tanahill has one more touchdown. That's unbelievable. He has one more touchdown pass. 55 to 54. So on a per game basis, he's throwing more touchdowns in Patrick Mahomes, better completion percentage, same amount of interceptions.

He's rushing the ball. It's incredible. His points per game at the position is 25.9 to Mahomes is 26.2. Don't look at Derek Henry's Titans and forget about what A.J. Brown can do. I think that's jumping off the page to me on this episode. Agreed. All right. Eighth best target share, by the way. I mean, he's an alpha. He's probably only going up next year. Yeah. I mean, when you look at what you'll pay for Tyree Kill and what you'll pay for A.J. Brown.

It's just brown is the value. I can't wait for the third year breakout. Yeah. All right. Well, and that could happen if he just stays healthy because those final year numbers. I mean, he finished with 11 touchdowns over 1,000 yards. He basically finished with the Mike Evans line, but he missed essentially three games. All right. Alan Robinson at number 12, consistency rank of 16. He is a free agent.

And ho-hum, he's got Mitz. I mean, just a great wide receiver, 100 receptions, 1,200 yards, 6 touchdowns. That's what hurts him. The touchdown totals, otherwise you're a top 8, top 7 guy. But what was your impression? What's the truth about Robinson? 25% bust, 44% good, 19% great. The truth is, is he was an okay fantasy option for you. He was nothing outlandishly special or bad. And on the field,

We all know what the truth is. He was, he's phenomenal. He's one of the best wide receivers in the game, and he had really bad quarterback play. Whether it was Foles or Tribisky, it was difficult to watch. You go put on the 151 targets on, and you put yourself through that, and then think about how Alan Robinson feels, having to dive for every single ball. And he'll get him. And so the question is going to become.

who's his quarterback? And what's the situation? Because you can't ask for more than 151 targets. He'll probably not go up from there. He will probably go down. He might be 135 target player next year. We don't know what team, what quarterback. But let me ask you this. Would you rather have 135 targets from a good quarterback or 155 targets from a Nick Fools? Foles slash Trabisky level.

What would you prefer for fantasy? I will take the good quarterback. Yeah, because I want the touchdown opportunities. I want the sustained drives. I want to know that you're going to get down the field. Now, even if he goes back to Chicago, I'll have a different quarterback. Mitch Trubisky's not going to be the quarterback for the Bears next year. Right. And if I'm Alan Robinson and I've lived the life of Blake Bortles and Mitch Trubisky and their backups, that's my number one priority in the offseason. Give me a chance to, look, he might.

make a lot of diving catches, but he don't want to. He'd like to make some routine catches every once in a while. He wants to catch in stride, in stride passes for the Miami Dolphins from Deshawn Watson. That's what he wants. He, after, once he goes and he gets a good quarterback, you know, fingers crossed, he, we may see a highlight of Alan Robinson.

First game of the year, catching a ball in stride and housing it, and they'll zoom it, and he'll just be weeping. Yeah. Tears of joy will stream down his face if he could play with a good quarterback. It will really move me. I will be moved. Absolutely. The good news for Ellen Robinson is no matter where he goes, we don't have to be concerned about the quarterback. Right. Because he has played with the worst of the worst, and he has produced. Not even 28 years old until right before the season.

Third contract. He was a top 12 wide receiver. If he can just get some good quarterback play, maybe he moves into the top five. If he has bad quarterback play, he's a top 15 guy. 13 is Robert Woods. Consistency rank of 22. He will also have a new quarterback. 129 targets, 90 for 936 and 6. That is what Robert Woods does.

Very few elite games. 13% great games. 38% busts. A little higher than you'd hope to see from him. It's his highest bust rate in four years. Oh, okay. Yeah, that makes sense. 56% good games. And ended up, for whatever reason, much better on the road this year. 15 fantasy points compared to 9 at home. I don't know why that necessarily is. Had a couple of touchdowns on the ground that helped his fantasy finish.

Look, I think Robert Woods felt more like his consistency rank for your team than he did his fantasy finish. Yeah, I agree with that. Which was 22. So better quarterback now. Right, better quarterback. And the problem is, okay, you've got a better quarterback, but is he going to be the first read for that quarterback? Because I'm confident in Robert Woods as the first read for the Sean McVeigh, Jared Gough led team.

Is Robert Woods the best wide receiver on the team? I would say. Maybe. Maybe. Yeah. It is really tough with him in Cooper Cup. They don't have the money to add somebody, do they? No. Wide receiver? No. They've been struggling with the finances. They're paid out. They've just re-uped Robert Woods and Cooper Cup. Yeah. I mean, I think Woods. It's Woods Cup and Jefferson and Higby.

So the general consensus on fantasy Twitter when the trade happened for Stafford was that the draft value of both Woods and Cup was going to go up. And I think that's a mistake. I think that there, we kind of covered this when we talked about the trade. I think it's going to be similar production, which has been good, which has already been good. But that's, I'm going to draft them as they have been.

drafted in years past. Woods has outperformed his ADP each of the last four years. So even this year, he was the 17th wide receiver off the board, finished the 13, probably felt right around that 17 range. You got what you wanted. He's not somebody that I think has some, you know, there's no invisible ceiling that he hasn't reached yet, right? I mean, we know what Robert Woods is. He's not going to be a huge yardage guy. He will be a PPR guy.

You hope he scores enough to make you excited. He'd be a great wide receiver, you know, two on a running back heavy team. He'd be a great wide receiver three if you could find a way to do that. But there you go. Woods averaged up to target this year with 7.1 cup with 6.6. That's where Stafford is so different than Jared Goff.

Golf, I think, was like 30th in deep passing in staffers near the ceiling. Is that right? The roof, the ceiling, the top. Yeah. It works. Okay. Shall we move on? Please. Keenan Allen. Oh, yeah. Finished at 14. He was the tale of three seasons. Ah.

That's a famous book. The tale of three seasons, a famous book. You had. Consistency of seven. Let me get that in there. Sure. Consistency of seven. It was very good. You had the beginning of the year where it looked like, oh, no. You know, you're going to have, oh, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. You know, you had the wrong quarterback there who wasn't going to get the ball passed around. All the preseason talk about what Tyrod Taylor was going to do to this offense was right. But then we got out of that quick.

And then you had a great period of time where Keenan Allen was unfathomably great for fantasy, locked and loaded. The targets were outlandish. But that was also when you were missing Austin Echler for that great stretch. So then at the end of the year, you had the Justin Herbert plus Austin Echler, that Keenan Allen, which was very good, but not great. What week did Echler come back? Let me look that up for you.

Because I'm looking at the season, and I agree. You know, you can break things up into chunks for Keenan Allen. But to me, the truth. Week 12. So to me, the truth about Keenan Allen is weeks two through 14. Week one with Tyrod Taylor, get that out of my face. Week 15, where you had the...

Wink. Don't sit-me game that we all got to experience where the team should have sat him. I'm throwing that one out as well. That's fair. So weeks two through 14, he was the wide receiver five in points per game. This was a huge season for Keenan Allen. His ADP was wide receiver 23 because of fears of the quarterback position. Because of Tyrod Taylor. Yeah, exactly. But his talent.

and Justin Herbert got things done, but he is a high floor wide receiver when he's active and he's out there. At least seven receptions or a touchdown in 11 to 14 games. The question I have for you is, is he a top 10 wide receiver next year to you? Based on, look, he had to carry a big load this year. He had a 26% target share, fifth highest in football. Mike Williams was on and off the field. Echler wasn't there.

There was a lot going on on this team that he had to absorb a lot. Now, he can do that. If they want him to do that, he can always do that. But does he belong in the top 10? Because he finished at 7th inconsistency, but 14th at the position with the injuries. What do you think? He does to me. He is an elite talent. Top 8? I don't know if I'll go there. I don't have all those. Eight to 10? Yeah. I'm just like, I do believe. I can say I believe.

with full confidence that he is a top 10 wide receiver. So Jay, those games, so when Austin Eckler came back, wide receiver 18, then he did have a down game against New England the following week, and then wide receiver 16 against Atlanta in week 14. Yes. And that's great. He was a solid wide receiver when Austin Eckler was back. He was someone you wanted on your fantasy team. But I think that the.

point that I was making is more that you look at those weeks two through 12 before Echler got back. And at that point, he was on pace for 180 targets. I mean, that was outlandishly high, far more than he was receiving once Echler came back. So, you know, I expect him to be a 150 target guy, which is great. No, we do have the variables of Anthony Lynn.

Anthony Lynn will no longer be the coach of the Los Angeles Chargers. And you did have the news come out there at the end of the game that Lynn was telling Herbert, you can't just keep throwing the ball at Keenan Allen, which. Bad advice. Like, honestly, that's a fireball offense. Right. If you're going to your quarterback saying, hey, stop throwing it to your number one wide receiver, who's always open and always does a great thing for your.