Fantasy Football - Unsolved Mysteries + Camp Injury Updates - Podcast for 7/30

No, not usually. I haven't. I mean, I've been, the only one of these guys that I've been drafting is Malik Neighbors. I think at the fourth round value, that dip is big enough to where when he gets back to health, and I am aware that it's going to start slow, I'm willing to take that on. When he ends up rising from this, I'm probably also out on Malik Neighbors because I think he'll end up. If he is, if he is on.

track to play week one and the videos look good keep in mind he will usually these players will have a period of time where they're not back to peak performance even when they're on the field i imagine he's going to be drafted around like a j brown uh you know nico collins so that would be like early second round right now and that would be too expensive for me the other guys i'm pretty much out on well the one thing i was going to bring up was patrick mahomes just in the fact that

His ADP has dropped every year for the last three years. But now, so our expectations for him are very low. They were going to be low if he was 100% healthy ending last year with the run that he had in fantasy. But ninth round Mahomes, he was fifth round Mahomes in 2025, third round Mahomes in 2024. Now he's ninth round Mahomes. He's basically like, I mean, he's a really late round quarterback. He had the torn ACL and LCL, not placed on the pup.

not going to see the rushing production from last year. That's the issue. Because last year, so much of his fantasy production came from the running game. He couldn't find someone to throw the ball to, and he scrambled like he had never done in his career, had a ton of rushing yards, rushing touchdowns. He really had that dog in him. He was, you know, willing them on drives with his legs. That will vanish this year for two reasons. One is the injury, and two, they should have a running game with Kenneth Walker there. So if you take that away,

I don't love the upside. He was quite a few fantasy points per game higher than his previous two years last year. Yeah, because the past few years have been horrifically bad. His passing numbers averaging 256 yards and 1.6 passing touchdowns per game. You take away a good chunk of that rushing, and those numbers are not going to be getting done. He was on pace for over 500 rushing yards last year.

So his points per game would have, you know, looking at last year, still not been good enough to be, I mean, that's still to put him outside the top 12. I don't think they've done enough to convince me to be in on Patrick Mahomes. Where George Kittle to me at that spot, because Jason, I'm with you of, if you don't get an elite tight end, just wait, just wait. Because they don't make a difference anymore. They're all the same.

George Kittle could be a difference. It comes with a huge amount of risk, but the risk of those other players is none, but the upside is none. Does that mean Tucker Kraft's off your board in the six? No, no. I'm open to it. I think that I am less open to it, but I'm that one I feel like I'm holding my breath on. I know, Mike, you've talked about. You're pretty in on Tucker Kraft. Yeah. What he was doing last year was.

was an impact difference maker at the position. But you got to spend a higher pick on a player that might not be their week one. Yeah. That's why I'm out. Younger player, but his injury was in November. What was the latest? So the latest we've seen, he was on the pup. If he didn't hear that Tucker Kraft is on the training camp pub to start. And he said, quote, I'll probably come off the pup here very soon. So it's him. It's quoted as I. It was not sourced to Tucker Craft. But.

Probably. I'm just going to do some analysis here. Unsolved mystery number two. Can the streaming quarterback strategy still work in single quarterback leagues? This was something we talked about. I feel like ad nauseum from probably the first year we started the show through maybe like five or six years. Because it was an elite strategy. So some data as you kind of craft your answer to the question.

But some data that's interesting about the streaming quarterback strategy and what we've seen evolve in the NFL. If you look, and Dwayne McFarland tweeted this out, so this is where the data comes from, but the number of quarterbacks to throw for 250 yards a game, we were at 17 quarterbacks in 2016, 19 quarterbacks in 2018, 16, 16. Then in 2022, 2023, it was 10, and then 10. So I guess when the two shell.

started hitting. It started becoming very popular. Now, in 2024, there were eight of them. Last year there were seven. So, I mean, we had a year in 2018 of 19 quarterbacks with 250 yards a game. Again, that's an average. That's the average of 250 yards a game. Now it's seven.

We used to shoot for 250 and 2 when you're streaming a quarterback, and we're not seeing that as a very common average. Yeah, not an average across the season, but that's the point of streaming, right? You can find a matchup in a game where a guy who you would not usually expect averaging 250 and 2 should go out there and throw for 250 and 2, if not more. Now, we have also seen the fewest total pass attempts last year in the last 15 years. Yeah, but scramble rates.

have risen. And that's where when we're talking about late round quarterbacks, streaming quarterbacks, you're looking for those guys that can scramble. They can, they can, that's today's NFL, is using the legs more. That's better for fantasy football. So that's Jackson Dart, we're more aware of that. And so those players are getting pulled up in drafts. Exactly. That's what happened. That's why the strategy, you know, if you're saying, oh, it hasn't worked as well lately. Yep, because the average fantasy football player is.

is wising up. This year, though, you still have a handful of guys who are interesting because they fit the bill. You know, 10th round or later, at least from the 80 p.m. I'm seeing right now. Bo Nix. Like, what's his rushing floor? 300? Yeah, that's the floor. He should hit 300 yards. Tyler Shuck, I love him. He should hit 300 rushing yards. The next guy. Malik Willis, he could hit 500 rushing yards. Like, Malik Willer. He could hit 800.

Malik Willis is the, so along though with the rushing, because the rushing is just the floor. You need the passing to take you over the top to become a weak winning type of a quarterback. So that's the question for, like, in my opinion, I'll just do, Shuck versus Willis. I'm so much more confident in the offensive passing attack of the Saints and Tyler Shuck. Certainly. But you're only getting, you know, I'm not getting Malik Willis rushing yards. But if Willis...

And that team, if they can figure out a way, that's a, that's a large butt of trying to figure out how like, when your wide receiver one's probably a huge butt. Probably Malik Washington. And we're talking about like Greg Dulcich as a sleeper. But if Malik Willis can find his way to 200, like 200 to 215 to 2.15 and you're getting, you know, one and a half to two passing touchdowns, then goodness gracious. So.

Well, all that being said, do you believe the late round quarterback strategy? Yes. With including streaming, not just finding a nugget, but like actually having to play week to week streaming can still work. Yeah, I still believe it can. I do too. Yeah, I mean, there are names we like. I mean, I think no matter what we say on the show, even if every show was dedicated to Jared Goff and Matthew Stafford, those players, ADPs are not moving. No. So there are going to be players like that, like Baker, Daniel Jones coming back.

that are going to be out there for free on waivers every week unless you're in a Super Flex League. So, yeah, it makes sense. All right. Unsolved Mystery number three. Number three. What will the Chargers' offense look like with new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel? It'll look sexy. You think? Oh, I do. I think the offense is going to be great. It will look very different. It is a team that ran...

Justin Herbert into the ground, not just because of a bad offensive line, but also they didn't bring tight ends in line very much. They utilized 12 personnel on just 6% of their offensive plays. That's the lowest rate in the NFL. McDaniel, you know, he is a guy that's going to come in, and you look at the transactions, they brought a fullback in. They brought in two tight ends. One is a blocking specialist, David Nogoku and Charlie Kohler.

The offensive line just got so much help. Two all-pro tackles that weren't there last year. So I think this, I think it's going to change a lot. To your point about Kohler and Njoku, like Mike McDaniel was one of the, you know, at least in Miami, maybe it was personnel related as well. But he only had three or more wide receivers on 41% of plays. He likes the two title sets. We were very, well, he likes two running backs.

Sure. Like he, he, like, Mike McDaniel is, is willing to ab and flow with trends or personnel. I know that having two running backs out there, the amount of time he did, you know, like from 23 on, he had A-chan. And it's like, well, A-chan's a running back, but he's, he's just, he's a real versatile player. We need to get him involved in the passing game. So what will it look like?

I think you will have more 12. The idea of them running out Hampton and Keaton Mitchell is pretty interesting. Well, I mean, they also brought an ingold to play fullback in front of Hampton. Yeah, you can have him out there in those personnel. It's hard because the Chargers feel like, they feel like a team where like you go in to the doctor and the diagnosis seems like it's so simple. And he's just going to write you the most basic script and you're going to go home and get well.

And now we're on like year five of like, you know what? You have, maybe you have a different disease than we thought. And we keep trying a different shot and a different medicine and a different vitamin. And we are always left with an illness. I think the personnel matters. And last year I was very excited for them. Yeah, I was going to say, we got to be honest about like last offseason with the Greg Roman combo.

Right, but we were in that boat. But it's the thing that happened. The biggest change to me, I mean, we've talked about it a bunch, but they lost their two superstar tackles. So they went, I mean, look at it this way. Herbert had led the league in percentage of dropbacks pressured. That's the first quarterback since 2018 who led the league in that stat and made the playoffs. He was, they just didn't have an offensive line. Then they went out and got one of the best centers. Yeah.

And now you get two all-pro tackles. Like, you're going to go from one of the worst to one of the best lines. And why didn't they give Greg Roman a pass and keep him? Someone's got to take the fall, man. Well, but I mean, why can't they just say, yeah, our offensive line is all beat up? I mean, I feel like it was, I think it's oversimplistic to blame the offensive line by itself. So here's a question about the Chargers offense for fantasy. We just talked about it, and it's great for fantasy. A lot of times people think you want more wide receivers on the field. You don't.

The consolidation of only having two means that the targets go to the players that are on the field. However, there will be far more of that for the Chargers than what we're used to seeing. So the question comes down to Ladd, who is their best wide receiver. Like, he's their best wide receiver. But he's been, you know, his slot rate the last two years, 71%, 64%. I just have no worries about Ladd getting on the field. Because I don't think Mike McDaniel's an idiot.

Fair. If I thought he was an idiot, then I would, like if this was Nathaniel Hackett, not to, but, you know, like a true idiot. You are saying Greg Roman's an idiot. No, he didn't. I mean, no, I'm not. Yeah, he didn't. He didn't take Ladd-McConkie off the field a bunch. No, he just put him in the slot. No, no, no, no, that's the idiot part. The idiot part is not playing Ladd-McConkey. It's not playing him at all. So the fear with the breakdown of too wide is that Malconchi will not be a part of it.

And I have no fear of that. He should 100% be on the field for that. Last year, Trey Harris technically led the wide receivers and snaps when they were in the two wide receivers set. I'm just saying. Oh, I'm not laughing at you. That's who it would be. I'm getting made fun of for saying Malconkey. I had French toast. He's swelling again. I had French toast. And you know what? I'm happy I did. It was delicious. Malconkey calling. But if you look at, what's funny is I don't remember who tweeted it.

variation of where wide receivers line up. One of the players that never moves the most was Quentin Johnston. He just doesn't do anything else. From college on. And the versatility is going to help in this offense for Ladd McConkey. This is a really big one for training camp to let us know. When McDaniel came in, he had.

a lot of very nice things to say about Quge. So it's like, well, then we, okay, we expect him for sure to be one of the guys. Then is it going to be lad on the outside? And now you get some Trey Harris talk coming up. He is a good wide receiver in his own right. He just hasn't had a lot of opportunity in the NFL. So pay attention here. To me, a lot of what happens with Los Angeles is that