Fantasy Football - Unsolved Mysteries + Camp Injury Updates - Podcast for 7/30

I mean, that's a good thing. You're not paying somebody like Henry, like we're not pricing him factoring in age anymore. Like people just keep taking him at the top because he's ageless or so it seems. All right. There was also running back Jordan James who seemed like he should be the favorite for the running back two position for the San Francisco 49ers. He suffered a rib fracture. So he will be out some time, which opens that door back up. And it's...

Basically Kalin Black, their third round selection. Till he is hurt. Yes. But Garendo is also hurt. You know that the electrical substation is, it's already doing some work. Got one. Two. Got two. We have Falcons quarterback news to a tongue of Iloa suffered a flare up. He will be out at training camp. Oh, that's not good. But don't worry. Michael Pinnix is not cleared for 11 on 11, and it might be four more weeks. Yeah.

So they are on. Hold the phone. They signed Cooper Rush. Oh, the Tua. Jack Strand. Yeah, the Tua injury right now they're saying. That's why I like Gibbs more than B shop. Yeah. Yeah. Right now they're saying that it's a minor thing. It's, you know, days, not weeks for Tua. And in the meantime, Pennix isn't out there. Tank Dell was not placed on the PUP to start camp. All right.

But he will be held out of team drills to open can. Yeah, man, please get back, Tank. The world is better with you in it. Wasn't he of my guy the year he got hurt? Yeah. Yeah. By one of us, I don't even remember what it was. That was yours. Yeah. All right. Chris Brazil also pretty significant injury for the Carolina rookie. They're talking like eight weeks. Yeah, he was carted off. Third round pick. Too early to tell. However, it could be pretty serious.

All right, we've got a main segment coming up, Unsolved Mysteries, diving into a number of questions and situations, and we'll find out what we think in just a minute. No matter what triumphs are in store this season, legendary game days start with a Miller Light. Miller Light is a true American Pilsner and the original light beer brewed since 1975, made with simple ingredients including malted barley for rich...

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Go to millerlight.com slash footballers to find delivery options near you, or you can pick up some Miller Light pretty much anywhere they sell beer. Game time is Miller time. Celebrate responsibly. Miller Brewing Company, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, 96 calories and 3.2 carbs per 12 ounces. What's up, Foot Clan? You are confident and disciplined and focused on details, just like everyone here at the fancy footballers, right? Those are words you used to describe us. In other words...

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patterned aluminum trim. Inside you've got all that comfort. You know, Jason's a comfort guy. We like the comfort. Comfort rains with leather seating surfaces and 12-way power front seats with power lumbar. You can learn more right now at GMC.com slash Sierra 1500. I'm just too old to be eating like a cake for lunch, I think. Probably. But it's just hard for me to resist. Because it tastes good.

I think that if I didn't have, I wasn't like born with the genetics I have and my family, I could be one of the heaviest people on Earth. You definitely eat worse than I do. A lot of times. And you are in much better shape than I am. But you also work out more. So, you know, tomato tomato. I will say when we went to the FF Expo, you also got a mountain of pancakes. Chocolate chip. I'll admit that that was a mistake. Yeah.

It was we got there and I was trying to tell you that pancakes are quite variable on the style in which they come. They could be like big giant pancakes. Do you get a bunch of them? Do you get like a short stack? You got a bunch of big ones. This was the equivalent. This is the funny thing we do as people is we say cake for breakfast is ridiculous. Yeah. But then we say chocolate chip pancakes are acceptable.

Which is, I mean, what I got was the equivalent of a full birthday cake worth of thickness. Yeah, six inch deep, like, you know, eight by nine slice of cake. Covered that in syrup. And I felt ashamed of myself. So perhaps as it was on the menu. Perhaps as a youth, I wasn't paying as much attention. You know, we had the chocolate chip pancakes or the smiley face stuff. I feel like the way they do it now, though. You think they're stepping it up? Well.

They have. That's more recent in history. In terms of... They're giving all the bread? In terms of, like, pancakes. The history of pancakes. And I like that they're like, hey. American appetites, Mike. I don't know if you know this. They have increased. Cake for breakfast? No, what if I said, I made it in a pan? You're like, oh, whoa, whoa. That's part of a balanced breakfast. Oh, yeah. It's in the name. It is right there. Yeah, it's just a cake in a pan. That you cover with...

rich maple syrup instead of frosting and maybe sometimes have chocolate chips in it instead of sprinkles yeah okay that you have in your oven cake right right yeah I would never have an oven cake for breakfast but you put it in a pan I'm in we're we're a weird species yeah we are um here we go unsolved mysteries

All right, our unsolved mystery number one that we're going to start with is should you buy the injury dip? This year there are four big names, among others, obviously. I mean, you could argue Jonathan Brooks and other players too, but neighbors, Kittle, Tucker Kraft, Patrick Mahomes, Jason, you know, we've had conversations around buying the injury dip. Mm-hmm.

We looked up some information, 140 players from 2021 to 2025, who were either coming off of surgery, so they were limited in camp or they picked up a training camp injury like during camp. And so a pretty big sample size, 140 players. Just giving you the data before you answer the question. 26% or 37 players exceeded their ADP. 57% failed to meet their ADP.

That was 80 players in that sample. And then 23 players, 16%. They met ADP but did not exceed. So, you know, you look at that and you say... So like 42, 43% of them still worked out as a pick. Yeah. That's one way to look at it. Yeah. I mean, because if you meet your ADP expectation, then it's... Well, but keep in mind, you're buying a dip. So your expectation was lower. Of course. But I'm saying if they... But you still drafted them...

Like they gave you the points that they were drafted. You're hoping for more. No, I don't agree with that. Really? Yeah, because I think buying the injury dip implies an expectation that surpasses the ADP, 100%. Like I don't, if I'm taking a player on a round, a multi-round discount and they perform to that round, I'm not happy with that pick. I would agree. Generally speaking, you would not be happy with that. Obviously, not a bust. It didn't ruin your...

chance, but the opportunity cost of what else you gave up in that round. And more than 50% of them, 57% didn't even meet that. But the opportunity costs are the same because they're meeting the price. So looking at this, this is 140 players from 2021 to 2025. This was a redo of a study that in 2018 on the Things to Remember episode, it was don't buy the injury dip. And at that time, we had kind of, um,

looked at the data and it was really bad. It was like, you know, more often than not, those dips don't pay off. Now, this data, you can argue whether, you know, you're happy or sad with not meeting the, or with just meeting, but not exceeding the ADP dip. Obviously, you can't argue that the majority, 57% failed to even get to the dip, 26% clearly happy with.

So when I look at it, the way that I interpret that data is way more often than not, buying the injury dip doesn't pay off. Yeah, I would say that the idea of them paying off, for me, I interpreted that as outperforming the status quo at that spot. And because you're trying to get a discount on them. So for me, 75% of the time it doesn't work out. So let's look at the specific players and how it applies this year.

This year there's a handful of guys that we absolutely love, you know, a couple of tight ends and George Kittle and Tucker Kraft that were dominating in fantasy last year other than their injuries. And then obviously Malik Neighbors who looked like he was going to start on the pup, didn't even start on the training camp pup and his running routes today and looking very good. Let's just put it this way. Neighbors, Kittle, Kraft. Where do they go if there is no injury?

Malik Neighbors goes in the first round. Yeah, for sure. You think he goes in the first round? He was never injured, absolutely. He would be up there with... He was in the first round last year. That one-12? That was with a, you're not sure we have a good quarterback. And George Kittle, you're talking about him... Fifth round? Yeah, probably. So he goes behind McBride and Bowers, but much higher than ninth round. And then Tucker Kraft probably goes ahead of Kittle. Yeah, I would agree with that. Maybe even ahead of...

He'd be there with... In the second year guys? Loveland. So that's kind of where, like, if you apply that data the way that I'm thinking about it with where they belong versus the discount you're getting, like, you know, if you drop Malik Neighbors at 402 and you get the performance of 402, would you have been happy with Malik Neighbors? Because I think you're going to appropriate these guys into spots that maybe isn't the same thing as what you would get there. I don't know. Yeah, I don't think you would be happy with that. I mean, you're talking about

a wide receiver selection that you're trying to swing for the fences as opposed to right next to being drafted at the same spots t higgins um you know if i i would imagine that that would be a better pick than someone that is drafted and just barely performing at this level of a draft pick so it seems like the adp for neighbors is likely to to rise significantly he is that video looked like it

Yeah, there's a video of him, you know, he's running, cutting, running routes. And seeing the video, he is 100% doing all those things. That doesn't mean he's ready to play football. No. But it's better than not seeing him do it. It is, except it's not better for ADP. No, but it's also way better than the video where he was at the celebrity baseball game and it looked like he couldn't round first. No, he looked like he had like a stilt on or something like that. But, um.

So when you look at neighbors, Kittle, Kraft, Patrick Mahomes, is the reward there in the draft to outweigh the risk of taking these players? Obviously, if you take Kittle and he doesn't start week one, you're now rostering two tight-ins, right? You've traded the selection for Kittle and another pick to fill in for Kittle for a time. What is your outlook based on that data for those four guys?

So I think everyone is priced, honestly, I think appropriately. Like Malik in the 4th is, that's an expensive pick. There's great players going around there. But the upside is by the end of the year, you have a wide receiver who's returning first round value. Kiddle, because he's, because of the age and when the actual injury was, it was in the wild card round and it was an Achilles, where we just don't have.

tons and tons of data on on guys tearing their Achilles like Betts did talk about the fact it's a mid tendon injury he said it's closer to where the tendon meets the muscle of the calf and that is generally good news for Achilles recovery outcomes are more favorable but like you said he does have age working against him he does but he's going in you know the ninth as about the tight end 10 you know the I don't feel like the three of us have taken him in any mocks there