Fantasy Football Podcast 2016 - Matt Harmon Mailbag Show!

Yeah, and Jason, I probably have the same answer. What do you got, Harmon? You get to kick it off. This is kind of tough. It is. Like, because John Brown's the one that you're getting, like, at value, in my opinion, because I take him in the fifth round, so I probably wouldn't do that one. I would probably be Ryan Matthews. Yes. That would be mine as well. I will be contrarian on this one. You're going Duke. I'm going to go Duke. I'm going to go Duke in the seventh in a full point per receptionally. I am a really big fan of Duke Johnson. I really am, and I am not a fan of the Browns. And so that...

That conflict exists in my brain at every moment that I say anything about a Browns player and how they can produce. But I'm going to go with Duke because I, you know, what did you mention earlier about the Raiders? They have to bring somebody in. It's a common sense thing. I think Philadelphia is in that same boat right now. Do you think you can go into the season with Smallwood and? They've got Smallwood. They've got Kenyon Barner. They've got Sproles. They have enough bodies. Yeah. Yeah, I guess with Barner.

The thing, like, I don't know, man, the tough part about the Ryan Matthews thing, and I know you've been a big fan, Mike, you've been pumping him up a lot, and you're not the only one. Like, on the surface, he should definitely be a top 15 running back. You know, they funnel touches in Kansas City and Doug Peterson's offense to the running backs. But at the same time, it is still Ryan Matthews. We have to assume that he will probably be hurt at something. Oh, yeah, and that's like the second thing that comes out of my mouth is he's massively talented with the opportunity.

But his bones are made of glass. And Duke Johnson's got the same potential issues. Because if you remember last off season, he was going to be. He just gets dinged. He might have been the three-down guy to start the year if it wasn't for the injuries that started. But they're not going to pummel him with touches. No, they won't. Pummel Matthews with touches, which just means that he will eventually be hurt. So I kind of just, the one thing that gets annoying with him is, like, I think so many people are pumping him up that he's going to keep rising in drafts. Because, like, I would happily take him in the kind of six-round range where he's been sitting.

If he gets up into the fourth round, then I'm out. I think he'll go higher than that. We were talking about on the show, though, the third round by the time draft comes around, if nobody else has signed there. And I looked up on the ultimate draft kit, your PPR stats. Yeah, I'm sure. Ryan Matthews is ahead. No, Duke Johnson is ahead of Ryan Matthews for you. It's always good when your rankings match what your mouth says. All right. Let's go to the voicemail. Another voicemail question here. Assuming I can pull it up. Gentlemen, Tom from Northville. Love the show.

Called you a couple of months back and had a 12-team standard league question. Keeper question, it was AJ Green, Mark Ingram, and Lamar Miller, Eddie Lacey, and you advised to go with Mark Ingram. After reading the ultra draft kit, which is great, certainly lean towards your advice of AJ Green. Please advise. I also posted the question when I posted a picture on Twitter of my...

podcast awards votes and just wondering you're going to have a top 200 in the ultimate draft kit and what's about tools to bring to the draft should just print out your Excel sheet or if you have another software you advise thanks a lot guys love the show this is a lot of questions yeah he maximized his time I love I do love that he throws in there too like hey also I need you guys to make some more stuff the ultimate draft kit's great

Give me some more, though. Yeah. I like, my favorite part of that was please advice. Please advice. Yeah. Let's start that trend going. Please advise. So I want to know how did you get the impression that the right pick was AJ Green based on the draft kit? Just the idea that we have green ranked high because we don't have the top 200 in there. So he didn't see ahead of Ingram. Well, he's the, I believe he's our fourth ranked wide receiver. Ooh, Daps all around. He's mine too. Yeah. Yeah, we love green this year. Ingram.

I believe is, depending on your scoring format, I didn't see, I don't remember what he said. But I think he's our sixth ranked running back or right around there. So by that, you would just say, oh, he's a tough decision in a standard league. I think it's really tough. I think it's a little tough, but I will say this. A.J. Green, to me, is safer than Mark Ingraham who has an injury history. For me, I've said this a million times. My first two picks, my round one and round two, I am going to avoid risk guy because I think everybody there is great.

I was going to say when it's that close. Yeah, when you're taking great guys, I just want the guy who's not going to bust, you know, as best as you can try. And A.J. Green is the longest running wide receiver of 1,000-yard seasons active in the league right now. Yeah, and I think it just, it comes down to how do you play? Because let's say both Green and Ingram live up to the potential and the expectations. Ingram is more valuable because you won't have, you don't have very many elite top-level running backs. But he comes with a much larger.

variance. And Ingram, has he played a full 16? I think maybe a couple times. I don't think he has. In 2014, did he maybe play a full 16? That's what we can't even remember. The answer is probably not. Yeah. And that's, so that's the deal is there is a much higher risk. It's a risk reward thing. 2012, he did play 16, but he only had 100. That was when he wasn't doing much. 56 attempts. It's risk reward with Ingram. So you just got to, how do you want to play?

These are all players I'm pretty high on. Like I mentioned, you know, a few thoughts on this. Like, one, I mentioned that the run, like taking one running back in the first few rounds. Ingram's kind of that guy I'm targeting in PPR because he had eight RB1 weeks last year. He only played, we don't mention. He only played 12 games. But still, like, that rate of hitting was, he was so consistent, just a great guy to have last year in PPR league. So if I'm playing a PPR, he's a guy I'll break the rule for. But.

I'm with you guys on AJ Green's wide receiver four. He's in the same, like, because I break everything down by tiers. He's in the same tier one as Beckham, Brown, and Jones. I think he's going to have that kind of season, like where everything comes, much like with Julio Jones last year, where everything comes together for him. They funnel the offense through him. It's really looking like it's all adding up to AJ Green this year. So I would keep him, because just in general, whenever it comes to keepers, I'm going to side on the wide receiver.

over the running back, like Jason mentioned, just because of fragility. Yeah, and the top 200, looking at that, because you want the top 200, we've said it's coming. I actually have access to it right now, and I just looked. The standard ranking isn't done yet, but the half point PPR, we do have A.J. Green ahead of Mark Ingram. There you go. How close are they on the top 200 on the, since you have access and I don't? Right now, Mark Ingram is 13th overall, and AJ Green is 7th. All right.

I have a handcuff question because you were talking about you're not really into the handcuff. What about a Mark Ingram situation where, like you said, dominant while I'm playing, but is known to miss some time. And then Timmy Hightower came in. It was great for fantasy purposes. It seems like the Saints said, yep. One two leagues off him last year. Yeah. And we said, or the Saints said, okay, Hightower, it's your show. And I guess Cadet, I think is still there. But that CJ Spiller character is still there too.

And Daniel Asco, they took him in the seventh round, Spark Freak. So how do you feel about Hightower handcuffing Ingram? Because he was so strong last year. That's my problem with handcuffs. I hate to play fantasy with the idea that one of my picks is going to fail. So if I'm holding Hightower the entire year, I'd like to see Mark Ingram play 16, not have to ever deal with Tim Hightower being in my lineup.

And I don't just have, I just, I think he has no standalone value, obviously. So he's sitting there getting, you know, zeros and ones the entire season. Filling a bench spot. Burning a roster spot on him. And I just don't have like full clarity that they're going to do what they did with Hightower last year, which is just, you know, give him 30 touches again. If Markinger ever went down. I think that's why I feel that, I feel the same way about.

handcuffing most of the time, because I'm honest with myself, I will get antsy about that roster spot, but I'll be like, I'm going to be real smart, and I'm going to pick up, you know, the handcuff, and then by week three, I'm going, dude, I got to sign somebody. I really want to sign, and I'll let him go, and then somebody else is going to fab him later on. Well, and that's the thing. Like, I am totally against handcuffing.

In drafts, but then in the season, like especially after the bi-week gauntlet is over, that's when you start loading up on guys like Tim Hightower, because they will get dropped. Most likely that will be the first guy to bounce when you need to claim the Devonta Freeman, the hot waiver guy of the week. Those guys will get bounced. And just especially like that's like, the biggest thing that I always preach with handcuffs is like, we just don't really know. Like remember when Jamal Charles went down last year? Everybody's like, Nile Davis has got to be Nile Davis. And it was never.

It was never not there. And that happens much more often than we think. Yeah. And the best is when you have the league mates that think they're going to really get you by drafting your handcuff. And then they're stuck.

with this kind of pride situation. I've got to keep them on my roster. I've got to keep them on my roster so I could show him. And then they drop them. And then they keep trying to trade him to you and try to get value. And you just, here's what you do. You hold out and you pick them up off of waivers. When they're really trying to trade them to you, it's because they want to drop them. But they're like, oh, I've got to get value for this guy. They're going to burn like a ninth round pick to do that too. Yeah, for a guy like that. Anders in Copenhagen, Denmark. Oh!

Bonjour. Thank you. You're welcome. I don't know if that's correct. No, that's the joke. So maybe we should explain the joke. Well, there was one other that didn't. Yeah. Yeah. So the bonjour joke evolved. I believe our first international question came from a now a good friend of the show, Dr. Football, over in Ireland. And Scott. Or was it? Oh, yeah. Is Scotland? I apologize. Yeah. You just said about the. Sorry about that.

But so he was former friend of the show. So it was, you know, hey, from Scotland. And so I just threw that out to be ridiculous. And it just, it kind of. All internationals get bonjours. Yeah, it just stuck. But now we, we do. I've never noticed that until just now. Well, that was, that was a long time ago. Which is why some, what, a guy.

from Italy or something. He's like, my name's Italian, actually. It's not French. And we're like, yeah, we know. He said, hey, guys, I just saw Bucky Brooks projecting Hunter Henry to have 55 receptions, 700 yards, and six touchdowns. Wow. Do you agree with that? Is he draftable? No. No, I really like Bucky Brooks, but no, no way. Would you agree with that for Antonio Gates?

Oh, I mean, I dig Gates this year. It's tough. Tight ends is really kind of a mess. I know a lot of people have said like it's deeper than ever this year, but I don't feel good if I, like after Barnage and Gates or like the last two guys that I really feel good about is like a standard league, you know, not a best ball like tight end option. If you look at what Green did with very little Gates activity last year, he was 37 for 429 and 4.

Yeah, and he was great when Gates was suspended for four years. Four years. Four years. He had a real serious problem. And the NFL stepped in, and they said, look, you get the four-year-old. That's why he's still playing at, like, age 50, because he got to take those four years off. You feel like if Gates is just on the field, it doesn't matter how fast he runs. He's just going to get his. And Henry's the rookie, I would be shocked if that happened. All right, Patrick and Pittsburgh, I have...

Bell and Martin in a 12, oh, another handcuff question, 12 team MFL 10, PPR. I feel like these are both important handcuffs. Well, they're not, but I get what you're saying? So would you draft, and what round would you draft DeAngelo Williams or Charles Sims? Should I plan on making them my RB3 and four? No, you should not. And then eat the two by weeks with a late round flyer.

No, generally in MFL tens. Right back into the same conversation. Well, specific to MFL tens, generally you don't want to draft your own handcuff. Like Harmon was saying, you hope that the guy's going to play the full 16. You only win anything here if you win the league. You've got to have the best guys. Now, there is a situation where I'll draft a handcuff if, let's say, you know, I've got Levi-on Bell and my wide receivers are...

stacked and I just want to kind of I know that my flex is always going to be a wide receiver and I'm just trying to plug in a little bit of safety at running back and I want to secure one of those spots get it out of the way and I won't draft that many total running backs but that's a rare situation I mean what what do you guys think I'm with you I'm not for MFL tens I'm not really looking for my handcuffs I'm just looking for

for upside and flyers. Yeah, I don't know. Speaking of these two specifically, like Charles Sims to Doug Martin, I meant to keep talking about standalone value with handcuffs. Sims is the rare guy, especially in MFL tens where it's a full PPR. He does have standalone value. Absolutely. He will have some week winning, some weeks where he wins you, is in your lineup. So I think that he's.