Early Breakouts & Busts + Budget Magician Strikes Again - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/17

Sure, and that's fair. Now, what, before I move on to our bus, though, real quick, we saw it in the draft. I believe you took him. You took T. Higgins later than Jemar Chase in the draft. No, I took Devante Smith. Who took T. Higgins? Oh, you took, you're right, you took Javons Smith. The computer. I think that you have to take Chase over Higgins. I would. That's my belief for fantasy players, because Higgins, while having a very nice rookie season,

You're walking into year three with the number five overall pick coming in to compete with targets for you. And Jamar Chase is the better draft day value right now than Higgins with all of that upside. So do you think that T. Higgins sees a bigger target share or a better production this year than last year? And I just don't see that world. So when you said you have to take him over to Higgins, my initial thought was no, I don't even have. I have Higgins.

projected higher than Chase in my rankings. But that's different than what you're saying. And I would agree with what you're saying. You should draft Chase over Higgins because when you really look at the breakout, not just what we are thinking are the most likely things to happen, but in the range of outcomes.

a Jamar Chase breakout would be much, much more powerful than a T. Higgins breakout because you're talking about like a superstar who comes in and dominates the way that O'Dell Beckham did rookie year, something like that. Yeah, and I think T. Higgins will fit in well with this depth chart the way it looks now. He's a great player, but I think you're going to see Jemar Chase do things on the field that make you go, oh, that's why T. Higgins didn't go number five, that type of stuff. All right, bus time. Bus.

Wait, I didn't see it. Dude, you got to play it again. Oh, no. Do it. Bus. I know what it is. Oh, yeah. Oh, I do too. That's Humpty Dumpty. I am humpty-dumpty in that video. I am an egg man. What do we do with Brian, man? I am loving it. He is just, yeah, but see, that fuels him. Don't give him too much rope, man. Otherwise, I'll turn you into an egg falling off of a... That already happened. And I love it. All right.

All right. Well, what you won't love is you won't love hearing our first bust pick. Because I'm going, I'm going spicy. You, sir. I mean, if you think about a bust, right, you're talking about it. You can't, can you bust if you're an eighth round pick? No. I mean, can you bust if you're a fifth? Sure, maybe. But in fantasy football, there are always, always, always, always, several players of the first round that bust.

And so I wanted to grab someone from the first. And I've talked about Derek Henry, who I think has some red flags. So I didn't want to go with him. And when I'm just looking at certain possible red flags for where they are going, Sequin Barkley has a list of things that are a little concerning that you at least need to be aware of.

while drafting him. And here's the thing. I've got him very high in my rankings. He is a phenomenal player. This is not me saying, oh, Sequan sucks. No, Sequin's amazing. But this is for fantasy football, and right now he's being drafted as the third or fourth player overall off the board. He is being drafted off of the memory of his unfa-

athomable rookie season. That is what's happening. His rookie season was... His second year was pretty good, too. Was it? Well, let's discuss that. So here's the thing. Shaguan Barclay in his rookie season had over 2,000 scrimmage yards, and he added to that 15 touchdowns. And that came with 91 receptions on 121 targets from Eli Manning. It was unbelievable. He only had one single game the entire year where he wasn't a top 20 back.

just unbelievable. And that's why it was a Christian McCaffrey level difference making season. And so that's why he's the third or fourth pick right now is because you're hoping you can get back to that. What I'm saying here is not that Sequan's not going to be good for fantasy. He's going to be great for fantasy. I don't believe he's going to be that. I don't believe he's going to be this Christian McCaffrey level, 121 target type of guy. Would you call him a bust?

he's in he's in the bus yes for his ADP put it this way yeah I mean put it this way I think if if if if if Saquan Barkley finishes as the running back 10 I think we'll view him as a bust if you draft him Johnson do that a few years ago it wasn't he the number two or three overall and he finished at 12 and everyone was 100% brutal and it was like this is a bust that's exactly what I'm talking about I'm not saying he's going to like have a

overall bad season, but for where you're drafting him, he's not going to do what he did his rookie year. So 2019, right, his other great season where he finished as the running back 10, he missed games. And everything is forgiven because it was all injuries, right? He missed basically four games. He missed part of the fourth game. But all of the games that he played in, he was only on pace for 64 receptions on 89 targets because.

Eli Manning only played four of those games, and Daniel Jones did not target the running back quite the same. Now he has Kenny G. and Cadarius Tony, who are going to get targets. You're not going to get back to this 120 target 90 reception. It's just not, that's not even in the range of outcomes to me to Seguan Barclay. He's going to be, you know, like he was on pace in 2019, where he's 90 targets is great.

65 receptions is awesome. It's going to be good for fantasy. It's not going to be what you think it was. It's not going to get back to his rookie season. Didn't we get like a last second part of that season where he won some people some titles? Yeah. And it brought back the memories of the elite. Yes. They very end of that season, he was unfathomably great. Yeah, he did it against our. You got like an 80-yard touchdown in championship. I remember. That sucked. But you want to know what he did right before that? You remember how I said in his rookie season he had one game outside of top 20.

What he did right before that stretch where he won people championships was he had five. Well, he was hurt. He had five games in a row where he was not top 20 in fantasy. Okay. I mean, I'm not, my point is you said his next season was great. His next season was good. It was. But if he did that season, if he does that season this season and you draft him number three overall, you're going to call him a bust. And that's not.

to say anything about the fact he's coming off of a really bad injury. He's coming off a torn ACL, MCL, and meniscus in week two. And so you think, oh, there's a ton of time, but it was so bad, he didn't get surgery until October 30th. His age, his physical presence, he should be fine. He's going to come back from this surgery just fine.

on a long enough timeline. But whether or not he starts the season a little slow and then dominates later, great. My point is between the injury, the pass catching. You don't want the listeners to be let down with their pick. I don't want them to be let down with their pick. And I'm not calling for Sequin to be just an outright horrible pick. He's great. He's going to be good for fantasy. He is going to disappoint.

If you draft him at the number three overall, thinking you're getting a Christian McCaffrey or Davin-Cook season. I don't think that happens. Well, I... Dude, where were you on Tuesday with all this stuff to help me feel better about the Jonathan Taylor pick? This is exactly why. I mean, the slow start is why I took Jonathan Taylor over him. Yeah, I mean, I teased then that we were going to be talking about Sequin on this episode. So who then? Who? Who? Who? What? Who's your number three?

Because you got McCaffrey and Dalvin Cook has difference making running backs. Cam Acres? Who's next? Yes. It can't finally make it up to three? My current running back three is Alvin Camara. I thought you were down on Camara though. I am down lower on the receiving volume for Camara versus last year. He doesn't have a number three. He skips it. No, I mean, well, look, he goes straight to four, doesn't he? It doesn't matter. You know, this is why we talk about tears. This is why we talk like.

You can be right next to someone in a rank. You can be one spot away from them in a ranking, but you're not in that same tier as the caliber ahead of you. And I think there's a big break after Christian McCaffer, Delvin Cook. Well, I mean, yeah, that is a good example for the tier-based drafting. Mike, you want me to go or you want to go? I'll jump in here. All right. Like I said, I was going to have a breakout tight end and a bus tied in. And it was a great story.

Last year, the player who he had switched positions, and he had a breakout campaign. And that's Logan Thomas from the Washington football team. Last year, Terry McLaurin led the team with 134 targets. And then you had Jady McKissick Smooches and Logan Thomas tied for 110 targets. Logan Thomas had the third most targets at the position. Number four on the list here for Washington.

Cam Sims had 48 targets. The wide receiver 2 had 48 targets. Let that really sink in. The opportunity was there. He was very necessary. So you're not just against J.D. McKissick. No. You are, you're speaking smithless truth. Yes. That's where I'm going. I mean, yeah, I'm going to get into Ryan Fitzpatrick. But he was necessary. And here is, this is mind blowing, because I didn't even realize how incredible the splits were.

Logan Thomas in games with Antonio Gibson. Okay. And I have removed the Pittsburgh game from this split because, look, Antonio Gibson wasn't in that game. Right. In games where Logan Thomas played with Antonio Gibson, he averaged 33 receiving yards per game. Those three games without Antonio Gibson, he averaged 80 receiving yards. He became even more.

necessary, and that's really where he did his damage. His first and second best output of the year were those games without Antonio Gibson. And now, what has the team done? Well, Kelvin Harmon is coming back from an ACL tear. The team just gave Curtis Samuel a three-year, $34.5 million contract. And this is not just an unknown free agent. This is a reunion of the coach that drafted Curtis Samuel.

And he said, I need you to come be my number two on this team, clearly, because they need a number two wide receiver. And then you just look at the tight end history with Ryan Fitzpatrick. There's no one. There is no one to speak of. And you even had a situation where they had a necessary player. And that was David Nelson back in Buffalo. He had 97 targets that year, 61 for 658 yards and five touchdowns. Like this is, those are not good fantasy numbers for,

for drafting someone to be hopefully a top 10 tight end. You can go up and down the history with Ryan Fitzpatrick. The best one where Fitzpatrick was, you know, playing the most of the games because Ryan Fitzpatrick kind of gets benched a lot. Yeah, that happens. He tends to get benched. But it was it was Mike Gassicki who finished as the tight end 11. And you like back his rookie year, you weren't really happy.

playing Mike Kosicki that year. And you look at Logan Thomas and his targets. If he's still really involved in this offense, right, and he drops in his targets share, he's getting 90 plus targets. That's still solid. But for fantasy football, tight ends last year, who were in the 90s, Noah Fant, the tight end 12, Hunter Henry, the tight end 13, and Eric Ebron, the tight end 15. 90 targets doesn't cut it for a season long.

fantasy tight in. Maybe Logan Thomas can be a spot start every once in a while, but I just don't believe that with the new players on the team and the new quarterback on the team, I think Logan Thomas should, you should not draft him at all. Even last year when they didn't have Curtis Samuel, if you just look at Alex Smith alone.

That's 32 fewer target pace on the season. Basically 90 targets versus the 120 targets he got when it wasn't Alex Smith throwing the ball. So now you change to a quarterback that doesn't have that history and you add Curtis Samuel. I agree. Early in the offseason when we first started our players out, I was thinking I still had a really strong projection for Logan Thomas. And the more that I looked at, I was like that.

That's wrong. It's just incorrect. So I have updated. I'm completely on board. I don't think Logan Thomas is going to be more than a streamable spot starter. All right. I'm going to jump in and finish us up in the bust category with the player that I have a deep conviction about. Yeah, you do. It has come on strong recently. I wasn't a huge fan of this guy last year, in part because he was connected to Gardner, and I wasn't a huge Gardner fan. But I want to talk about the...