Early Breakouts & Busts + Budget Magician Strikes Again - Fantasy Football Podcast for 6/17

I think when he came back from the injury and saw the workload that he received, that was a voted confidence from the head coach. I don't really see any holes in the logic that you're bringing forth. I mean, it's not fair to any rookie or second year player to say, well, they can't do it because they've never done it. I mean, that's true of every single rookie. It's true of every single second year player for a lot of these metrics. So, yeah, I mean, for a player to be put in this position.

His real competition is a player that is, we've seen it, I think, enough from Daryl Henderson, that he's complimentary. He's been injury prone. And so if what you're saying is right, if the pass volume goes up, no reason not to believe in Sean McVeigh, no, no reason not to believe in the offense, I feel like at times you've been a resistant Camakers breakout.

I'm resistant. Apologist? Yes, I'm resistant upon how high he is in my rankings because it's scary. I don't even want this to be true. But Mike said, look, you know, you said in the office the other day, well, good. I mean, you need to have non-consensus picks throughout your rankings just based on your analysis. And you've been right on a lot of these. So as much as I'd love to pick apart the logic, I mean, 140 missing targets from Everett and Reynolds.

They need another regular passing threat that isn't Robert Woods and Cooper Cup. Yeah, I expect Van Jefferson to step it up a little bit, but it's really the Everett targets that are the big opportunity for him, the kind of the extra eligible receiving options. All right, Mike, who's your early breakout pick? I'm sure I'll be able to pick this one apart better. Yeah, of course you will. But look, I'm going to tight end town here.

where I'm giving you a breakout and a bust at the tight-end position, and it will not shock you if you've been following me the whole off-season if you're just jumping back in. Welcome to the party. Adam Troutman from the New Orleans Saints. I believe that he is a breakout tight-end this year and will be valuable for fantasy football. Take a look at last year's tight-in two through seven. You got Darren Waller, of course, but then it's Tunyon, Hawkinson.

Mark Andrews, Logan Thomas, and Mike Gassicki. What do all those players have in common? There aren't teams that do not have, or at least last year, did not have a locked-in number two option in the passing attack. And the tight end was the one that filled that void. To me, when I was looking through everything, here are tight ends that could theoretically jump into the second position. I'm not saying they all are going to, but they at least have the opportunity. You have Dallas Goddard, Kyle Pitts,

Adam Troutman, one of the guys from New England, either John O' or Hunter, Cole Comet, but he's kind of got a Jimmy Graham problem, and then Evan Engram, who, guys, Evan Engram led his team targets last year, and we have just, we have thrown him into the garbage. This is not a pro, this is not like Evan Engram is the greatest. It's just a...

The volume has always been there for Evan Anger. It's just funny because it's like if you got that many and you still weren't great and then you add Ghaladay people, I mean. Right. I'm just saying that like we, Evan Engrave is he's still around. But anyway, this is an Adam Troutman take here. He can move into the second position because you have Michael Thomas and then you have who. I mean, it's either, it's probably going to be either him or Alvin Camara. Yeah, because you have Treyquan Smith.

He has never done it. He's played with a Hall of Fame quarterback his entire career. He still hasn't done it. Then you have Marquez Calloway, Deonti Harris. No one is there and established as the number two option. Okay, so the opportunity is there for him. Let's look at Adam Troutman, the player. He was a third round pick. He was a day two draft pick. And that's with the team traded essentially all of their day three picks to move up so that they could grab Adam Troutman. He came out of a smaller school.

So that's the reason for it. He was a third round pick, but he dominated at that school. A 38.1 dominator score, which means he accounted for 38% of his schools receiving yards and receiving touchdown. These are numbers that like the greats are not hitting. Travis Kelsey, Darren Waller, Zach Gertz, they're all under what Adam Trowman was able to do. Jared Cook and Josh Hill.

We're both waived from the team. That's a huge amount of targets. And the number two option is available because Emmanuel Sanders, who was 16% of the Saints passing targets last year, he is also gone. The option is there for him to have the breakout. I think that he has the skill set to break out. Last year, if you look at a pro football focus and their grades.

He graded out as the highest run blocking tight end. As a rookie, as a rookie, he was with the pro football focus's best run blocking tight end. He is not going to come off the field. How many fantasy points do you get for run blocking? It doesn't matter. You're going to be on the field. So you're not going to have a Mark Andrews situation where, yeah, the fantasy points come, but it's a little dicey when you're watching the game screaming, why is Mark Andrews not on the field? Why is he only playing for 50% of the snaps?

Troutman is going to be on the field nonstop, and I think that he is in a position to really break out. We know what James can do, right? We know that he will choose to hyper-target a tight-end if he needs to. And then Tassam Hill, we don't know yet. We don't know what his tendencies are, but we know that in his, in two of his four starts, the last two.

They let him throw the ball 37 times in both of those games. So they eventually started to let Taysam have some volume and rip the ball out there. As of this recording, four hours ago, writer for the New Orleans Saints.com published the article Adam Troutman poised for lead role among New Orleans Saints. Oh. I didn't even know about that. That's because writing that article is a lot easier than Marquess Callaway poised for lead role. Look, the opportunities in front of him. It's him and Nick Vinette.

Right now on the depth chart. And Nick Vanette, his five-year high, is 269 receiving yards. It's pretty nice. I mean, you're no stranger to risky business at the tight-in position. You're looking for some value there in a free pick. You're looking at somebody that you can take with the last pick, and you'll probably get a really quick understanding of his role in week one, week two. And if you're wrong, you lost nothing.

And if you're right, you gain the world. Yeah, our ADP source does not have an ADP right now for Troutman. That's, you know, he is not someone that. Do they even let you draft him? Is that illegal? And if I wanted to poke a hole. Is that what the breakout is? If I wanted to poke a hole in this argument, the one thing I would say, obviously he has done nothing so far. So this is a projection that's, you know, for a breakout. But I would say my biggest issue is last year you thought there was going to be a breakout from Blake Jarwin.

And he did nothing. He did nothing. You got me. So eggs on your face. Also in his limited targets, he was number three in yards per target. Very limited targets. Never had more than three catches in a game or three targets. Yeah, he was not utilized. 39% on the field last year, but had a chance to learn from two really good. Yeah, I mean, like, Jerry Cook is there. Yeah, and Josh Hill was a great.

contributor to that team and who's in that room with those guys third round pick huge size six three um the opportunities in front of them it's hard to break out at tight end there's always i mean look all you do is draft athletic tight ends in the NFL everybody that goes in the top four rounds at tight end has the physical comp to a superstar i mean that's just how it works it is funny that in the unfa

fathomably limited. Like there are so few targets you can even go look at last year for Troutman that he has one of the best highlights of the year where he runs a route that was like, man, that was like Odell Beckham in a, you know, a 250 pound body. And I've said it before, but like go watch Adam Troutman highlights from him at college. Like this is a very fluid pass catching big man. Yeah, the draft capital and some of the physical athleticism comps.

make me more willing to buy in. I still projected him to be a next year thing. But the opportunity is, I mean, the cost is nothing. Although last time you talked about him, you caused some real issues. I did. My bad. Remember, everybody went out and tried to trade for him or get trade. People were getting trade offers for him. Just be careful what you're doing here. I'm just trying to get his ADP to a respectable point. Well, my breakout pick, first I complimented Jason.

which is rare, and now I'll annoy him, which is less rare on this show. But I'm going to go with Jamar Chase. Yes. Superstar in waiting. Yes. At the wide receiver position. I think we know the pedigree. We know the draft capital. We know the investment that Cincinnati made on this player, this 1,700-plus yard junior. I...

received word of, I mean, there's a quote here that's really written. I was going to read it to the listeners. It's really more for Jason from Joe Burrow. He wrote, look, speaking of Jamar Chase, he's a really smart player. He understands what we're trying to do in this offense. I told everyone coming in that he is not going to bust. He knows exactly what.

to do. He's going to be a pro and he is a great friend as well. Oh man. That friend. That is great. Friendship is really the key here. I mean, I'll tell you what. This is the first time I've heard a quarterback speak highly of his receivers. So this is really moving. They don't always talk about the only ship that can't sink, Jason. That's true. That is true. They don't always use that phrase. I love the relationship that these two players have. I've talked about it a lot in this off season. The Bengals offense is a

complete guarantee of passing volume. Joe Burrow, the rookie, averaged 40 pass attempts per game last season. Joe Burry, Joe Burrow, the sophomore is going to throw the football because whether it was Andy Dalton there before Burrow, Zach Taylor throws the football. And what I love about this is that Jason believes that even more than I do. Because Jason's projected Jamar Chase from more targets and a higher target share than even I have.

I have them for 71 for 1150 and 7 on 110 targets, which is just a 16% target share in this mass passing volume offense. Jason's higher than I am in that regard. Every year, I looked at the last eight years, every year a rookie wide receiver is a top 24 finisher guaranteed. Several years there's been two or three, and why not bet on the draft capital and the connection and the friendship and the rapport and the trust?

and the professionalism of Jamar Chase. I watched a lot of T. Higgins in college. I thought he was a really good player. I thought he impressed me last year. Jamar Chase is a better wide receiver today than T. Higgins is today as a professional NFL wide receiver. I believe that. Jamar Chase outshined back in college, but he in college outshined Justin Jefferson. And he was, and he's younger than Justin Jefferson. And we just did the mock draft. Spoiler alert.

I drafted Jamar Chase. I got him one pick behind Tyler Lockett. I believe that was the fourth round or fifth round. Probably the fifth round. Beginning of the fifth round. The upside potential when you look at all the intangibles. This is not Jamar Chase arriving in Seattle with two other competitive whiteouts. This is a high passing volume offense where I have a great deal of con. Joe Burrow, all the news on Burrow.

Being ready for week one has been so positive. So I am just, look, it's not a guarantee. I'm not sitting here telling you it's a guarantee that this player is going to be a top 12 wide receiver. But the fifth round cost combined with the breakout potential for the number five overall pick. Look, Joe Burrow had a big hand in this pick. No question. You hear it in that quote. And it went, you know, he went over Sewell because the team wanted to bring him in here to be a game changer.

I think even in limited reception totals, he's going to be a big time breakout candidate. Yeah, I think that's fair to say that he could be a breakout candidate. I project him for, you know, those, all the targets that AJ Green got last year. And if he is the star.

that he hopefully is being drafted, you know, number five overall in the NFL draft. A star is born, Jason. Then, yeah, the opportunity for a breakout. Didn't work out the last time for Jason. The, uh, for juju. I'm doing just fine. Um, yeah, but the, uh, the opportunity is, is in front of him. It's just a matter of can he really do it rookie season with a bunch of other targets going to Higgins and Boyd. I don't project that that will happen.