Fantasy Football - Top 10 Things to Remember for 2026 - Podcast for 3/5

for the rest of the season. Same thing went with, remember how hot Baker Mayfield started? This goes to your point with two quarterbacks. If you had Baker Mayfield at the beginning of the season, if you had Bo Knicks because you invested draft capital in him, you're like, I got my position figured out. Well, Drake May was a streamer in week two. Like, I know he got drafted in a lot of leagues. Not every league. Right. And maybe he got dropped after they lost in week one. There are opportunities on the waiver wire, and you might pass on a guy because you think you have the position figured out. This is a way of saying like,

NFL GMs, they go into the draft position over next on the board. You need to go best on the board sometimes on the waiver wire, even when you have a player that is doing the job in that position this week because things change too much. You might have thought you had plenty of wide receivers and you passed on Parker Washington or Alec Pierce in week 10 waivers where they were on less than 30% of teams. Both of those guys were basically wide receiver ones from week 10 on for your roster. If they're good, if you believe in them, just because you've got to figure it out, sign them anyways. It's funny because we do this elsewhere. Rookie drafts. We have learned lessons over the years of just take the best player. Take the best player available. Yeah, you need running back, but that's, you know, he's just not as good a pick, you know, at that point in the draft, this wide receiver versus that running back. Just take the best player because it turns out it's going to help you the most, even if it's not the position you think of you. Yeah, you can, you can, if you have two amazing tight ends.

That's fine. You can figure out what you want to do with that at that point. There's good problems to have and bad problems to have. Agreed. Number three. Targets still have to be earned. And I want to bring this one up because we talk about young breakout, hopeful wide receivers, draft capital opportunity on a good NFL team. So this is... It almost is an inverse of what you were talking about, Andy, of bad teams can ruin good players. Well, bad players going to good teams doesn't automatically turn that bad player into a good player. And I promise you, I'm talking into Amir right now. So when we're talking specifically about it's straight to me, but whatever. No, well, people say we look like brothers. Okay. There's that whole thing.

This is also believing in your rookie takes. Keon Coleman, right? Keon Coleman goes 33rd in the NFL draft, right the beginning of the second round. Keon Coleman wasn't a player that I particularly liked. My process didn't love him. But he went in the top of the second round to Josh Allen. And I allowed that to completely sway where I was willing to draft Keon Coleman. Because of course this makes sense. They need a wide receiver. They have Josh Allen. How was this? They, A plus B. Yeah, like Stefan Diggs is gone. We need someone to soak up targets here. Well, did Keon Coleman earn targets in college? No. No, he didn't. No, but the plans will fix it. But now it will definitely work. He's like, well, like his final college season talking to Keon Coleman. Targets per route and run, 23%.

which that is in the 22nd percentile mark among day two wide receivers, as in he was not earning targets for a second round wide receiver. And look where Keon Coleman's career has gone. It's been a complete disaster. Matthew Golden, first round wide receiver, team that desperately needs a wide receiver. Team, they don't draft guys in the first round, and they win in on Matthew Golden. Well, Matthew Golden certainly earned targets. As a prospect, right? No. His final season, targets per rent run, 17.7. That is the lowest of any first round wide receiver over the last decade. Shocker, it has not worked. He wasn't able to earn targets in college. He's not earning targets now as a professional. Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs. Holy crap. Same exact thing. I did the same exact thing with Keon Coleman that I did with Worthy. I didn't like this player as a prospect. Like the production profile, I don't.

I'm not seeing it. I'm not seeing it working. And yet, Kansas City Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes, gets a first round wide receiver. Of course it's going to work. Because, of course, he's first round wide receiver, right? He's earning targets in college. No, 37th percentile mark for round one wide receivers. That's where Xavier Worthy was. And it just, it hasn't worked out. So draft capital is incredibly important. incredibly important. I'm so sorry, Mike. I'm so sorry. I'm sure you had a good point. I don't know. We've just been playing around with the bookshelf. I don't know what's going on. The bookshelf light behind you. Apparently the bookshelf was lit at one point, but it's been a while. And then I guess it turned off. And so he turned it on while you were like talking. He fixed it. Right. And he walked back to his seat. And the second he sat down and just turned off. It was just.

Our set is a work in progress right now, people. Yeah, no, they're working during the show. But good points, good points, good points. Good points. Good answer, good answer. So we did this with Tyreek Hill and Kansas City as well. We'll do this. We'll do the, the TLDR right here. If guys aren't earning targets in college, just because they go to the best quarterback or the second best quarterback in the league does not automatically mean that player will start earning targets. They just, you need proof. You need proof. I don't care about your athletic traits. I think what is just to, I agree completely. It's something to remember. I think what is difficult for fantasy players and managers is the team's confidence in that player is persuasive. Oh, yes. So when they spend draft capital to bring a player into an obvious need position, it is very difficult to not find a way in your brain to make that work. I mean, to some degree, that was the case with Clyde-Odard-Dillare.

not looking in the target department, but just looking in the running back department, you're like, oh, maybe I didn't love the film. You know, you guys don't think loved it as much. But then it was like, well, he went to Kansas City. Yeah. It's got to work. It swayed me. I had the first pick in our rookie draft that year. I freaking loved Jonathan Taylor. I was like, this is the guy. And that Edwards-Zalier goes to the Kansas City Chiefs in the first round. And how do you not automatically make that guy? the first pick it would be foolish so i mean everything today is just really working in a symbiotic yeah symbiotic way of all these things need to be taken into account we're just finishing each other's sandwiches thank you and it goes into this next one too number two draft class projections are real

They really are. We've learned this lesson over the last few years, but this last year showed me. So we do NFL and fantasy football. When we're going through the NFL season, we don't have time to just grind college film. I don't at least. I don't know. In the season? Yeah, in season. So we're not, our attention turns to prospecting right now. You know, we just don't have time during the season, but we always hear the rumors, the whispers, the projections of a whole draft class, right? In 2024, it was supposed to be this great wide receiver draft class year. Oh, and then it was. I know Marvin Harrison Jr. was disappointing as a rookie. Still not bad, historically speaking, as a rookie, Malik Neighbors was a breakout. Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey, just an amazing draft class, seven first round wide receivers, most over to the last decade.

That was what we heard about it. That came out to be true. Last year, we were told this is a running back draft class that's loaded and a bad wide receiver draft class. That's what we knew going into, like, I'm going to go start looking. We were told it's a running back and tightened draft class. And it really, really was. You had Gentie, Hampton, Judkins, Henderson, Harvey. The second most total touches and yards from scrimmage for rookies over the last decade, despite major injuries to Hampton and Judkins and Scataboo. If they'd stayed healthy, it would have been, you know, the craziest rookie running back season ever. And wide receivers last year, we were told it's kind of a down year for wide receivers. And it really kind of was. There wasn't a lot of massive production. You know, we just talked about Tet was okay.

Ibuka looked like a big stud breakout and then disappeared. It just wasn't great. So what is this year? I'm going to buy into the paintbrush that's painted by the entire draft community, which is... Some are stronger here, some are stronger there. Yes, it's different every year. And this is what this year is. This year is overall a weaker draft class in general, top to bottom. But its strength is in wide receivers. is a very weak running back draft class and a pretty deep wide receiver draft class. And why this matters is because if you look at last year, last year is a really strong running back draft class and very deep. If you took shots on those rookies, it really did pay off. And even the late round picks, the guys that weren't the studs, but they were just in a loaded running back draft class, Camp Scadaboo.

Woody Marks had an impact at one point. Kyle Monongai at the end of the season was startable. Bill Kroski matter because it was just a really... That was the strength of that class. And then the tight ends and you had the three rookie tight ends that are... Are you going to remove Mackay Lemon because he's so creepy? No. No, I do think that once the interviews are... Yeah, he's... I'm a snake, man. It was, dude, it was very serpentine. His interviews are crazy. But let me, so, because that was kind of the overall, you know, thought of, the Lemons interview. It was unique. It was, it was an interesting, you think you're looking cool talking like this situation. Go check the tape, man. I don't think you looked as cool as you thought you were going to look. However, we, we want wide receivers thinking they are.

That divotown. Oh, yeah. Terrell Owens, come on down to my team. Antonio Brown, you're welcome as my starting wide receiver. Yeah, you could be crazy. I didn't, I didn't interpret that as bad because I'm like, that's a guy who when he gets in the huddle, he's going to say, throw me the ball. Throw me the ball. I'm open. I'm always open. Yeah. So don't pick up my kids from school. I'm going to tease something here that. This has been what I've been working on the entire offseason. It is, we're going to be rolling it out to the Dynasty Pass at some point in time. The Felix model is a, I mean, this is, I'm so excited about this. I'm going to put out an article detailing it, and information to come. But this is more data than I've ever had access to in my entire life. Machine learning, backdate tested.

an incredible prospecting model to try to project fantasy football success at the next level. Backdating it, looking at last year, it's looking really, it would have had Jackson Dart as a 90th percentile player. Cam Ward down a little bit lower. Last year, I wish I had it. Look, Caleb Johnson, he was a 26 percentile Felix score. Maybe I wish I had this last year. Okay, it's getting things right in a way that is genuinely impressing me. And when I look at just that Felix score projection, and these aren't locked in yet because we don't have the NFL draft hasn't happened. These are projected draft capital, which is everything will change. But just to give you an idea of the lay of the land for this coming draft class, 90 plus graded Felix score athletes from last year at wide receiver, there were two of them. This year, there are five.

wide receivers graded in the 90th percentile or better. 80 to 90, which is still good. Last year, there were five of those players in last year's draft class. There's 12. So this is a loaded 17 players in this wide receiver draft class right now pre-NFL draft. So it will change. This is where the depth is. So. Later in my drafts this year, I'm going to be focusing on rookie wide receivers. Yeah, you're buying in there. I think that's also, this draft class is deep. I think we're just going to be getting, though, like some strong twos. Yeah, I think it's depth more than studs. We don't have a Jamar. Well, I mean, people like Kate and there's a handful of guys who could. I just think that the depth is more of a.

you're going to be a short you'll be able to shore up that bench and have players who can go into your flex spots all right there's one more number one i'm not reading that first one because that's not i mean that's for you mike oh but number one is to uh we always want to remind people get your league right this is the time of year to get it going don't wait until august and be like ah crap we didn't fix this we're in the same situation i guess we'll think about it again next year we still got kickers like if you got issues in your league we still got week 18 championships take care of it right now and the the note for me if you're the champ start plotting know what you're going to do on draft date i've got my ideas floating around i have uh i've applied for another mortgage so that i can yeah no no no i can take out some fund

the championship party like i'm looking forward to the draft i'm so not i just my bank account is not looking forward to man i got i got to i got to figure it out me and kyle were working on some things some some ideas are floating around but now is the time to start thinking about flush the turds in your league yeah if there's a bad manager in your league that just doesn't add anything isn't active it's better to be a great 10 person league than a bad 12 person league with two turds Okay. Get rid of the bad managers. Make the changes you need to do. Do it all right now. New rules, new scoring settings. Set up a new way to communicate. Whatever you need to do, get it done. Make your league the best. It's the one repeatable thing to remember we bring up each and every year. So that is going to do it for today's episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. You can find the Dynasty Pass, the aforementioned dynasty pass at ultimate draft kit.com.

You weren't talking about the feline model, right? No. Mason Taylor was a hundred percentile. This is different? The feelings. Goodbye. Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on join thefoot.com. And follow us on Twitter at the FF ballers.