Fantasy Football - Top 10 QB Rankings + Money Money Money! - Podcast for 8/4

Jason, where are you? You said it's hard. Give me your thought process before we move to number three. Yeah, it's hard because this is a player who has so many fantasy points scored on the ground. That's always been his game. And last year, you had a player who's perennially 600 plus rushing yards, 700 plus rushing yards, who ended with 421 rushing yards. This is a player who always has double digit rushing touchdowns because of the tush push, sometimes up at 15.

And last year, he was down at eight rushing touchdown. So which is it? Is it a directional thing? He's older. He's running less. He's not that much of a weapon. I don't believe that. He's 27 years old. He hasn't aged out of mobility yet. I believe that Kevin Petulow is the worst. I mean, like, give me Matt Nagy over Spittalo. That guy stinks. Now, we don't know if Sean Mannion is.

great, you know, sometimes I remember back of the day, it was like, well, this offensive line can't get worse. I was like, oh, don't you say that out loud. It could. Maybe Sean Mannion is just as bad as Petullo, but the offense was disgusting last year. Literally the Eagles offense watching schematically was like they didn't do any, there's no creativity, no scheming guys open, no motion, no, all the things that work in the NFL. I've seen enough motion.

And Sean Mannion is coming from systems that work, and they're going to have him under center more. Sean Manion or hurts? They're going to have, well, either one, man. Sean Manion could sling it, but hurts. Hurts will be under center more. Don't like this, Jalen. They also have, you know, one of the best offensive lines that was very injured last year and should be healthy. So in my estimation, the tush push isn't going away. They're not going to stop using it. I think that he'll have double-digit rushing touchdowns for sure.

He'll be at 500 rushing yards and he's at the biggest discount. So I think he's actually a pretty good pick in fantasy this year. Yeah, if you're, you know. Number three. I'm sorry. I thought you were done, Mike. No, I'm apparently. No, no, I thought you were. It's the, I think wrapping Jaden into this discussion at some point will be good. It's like, so, you know, tier wise fantasy football. You have Josh Allen's kind of, he's his own thing, man. And then you have, you know, kind of that batch of other elite quarterbacks. Jalen Hertz is the,

The lowest ADP. He, I think he has the highest risk, but it's still a potential difference maker. Number three. You already did that. Number three. So what's funny about this is so Jaden's at number three in our consensus. Hertz is at four. Burroughs at five. Through this conversation, I already want Burrow. That's the wild thing about this, because I think the range of outcomes on Burrow is not.

outside of injury which i mean look yeah yeah any play jaden went down with injury like that can happen yeah but i think i want percentage wise jane daniels has been hurt half of his seasons yes look jaden i think burrow's like half too oh yeah don't say that um it was a lost season for jaden we know that the thing that i wanted the reason i hit three so soon oh crap it's half for burrow is because jaden daniels and and jalen hurts are both in the sixth round

and both to me are, there are somewhat similar situations in the fact that you have a new offensive coordinator in both cities, you have a quarterback who's dependent on the rushing yardage, you have questions about the pass catchers in both cities to some degree, and both of them are at a discount relative to their previous spot in fantasy. So, you know, look, do I think that one of the two is probably going to work out really well for fantasy at ADP? Yeah, I mean, both might, but...

I'm sitting there with the stability of Joe Burrow, the schedule of Joe Burrow, the receiving group for Joe Burrow, and I find myself a little bit nervous. I could not agree with you anymore. When I finished my stats for Jayden Daniels, he was extraordinarily high. In some formats, he was like my quarterback one because of the rushing, the rushing upside is in that 7, 800-yard range. And like I said, when you...

have that level of rushing. You can't be bad at fantasy. However, I don't love the team outlook. I don't love the offensive outlook. I don't love the offensive weapons. I think Terry McLaurin is good, but he's old. He's going to be 31 this year, and they don't really know who the number two is. Maybe they'll bring in Stefan Diggs, but he's past his prime two. So the weapons are dicey. I think Jaden Daniels is great. He's great for fantasy, but he costs a lot. To me, when we look at this grouping of where you're taking these quarterbacks,

I'm in complete agreement with you, Andy. If I'm taking a quarterback in this range, it's Burrow. Burroughs the best. He's got the best outlook, the best team dynamic, the best projected point total, the best weapons. If I'm going for the rushing mobile upside, that's why I'm all in on Jackson Dart. Let me take a running back or a wide receiver here. And if I'm going for the upside of this guy's going to have 800 rushing yards and kind of be the superstar for fantasy that Burrow can't do that on the ground, let me take them in the ninth.

Yeah, anything to add there, Mike? Oh, just the, the scramble rate was still incredibly high last year. So, like, Jaden's going to keep running. We know that 11% of Daniels passes were dropped, which, like, you know, that's fantasy points. That's not on, on Jaden Daniels. That's, that will probably bounce back. It's the, it's the weapons that that's what freaks me out the most of, like, is.

Ken O'Conquo, because if they don't add digs, it sounds like O'Conquo will be the number two target. It was paid. Maybe Antonio Williams. Sure. But it's like, is that enough to take Jaden Daniels with the rushing floor and keep him elite? Or are you just more of a floor play? We're like, I'm getting the QB7 every single week. I think we know, Mike, if Jaden Daniels is awesome this year, if he ends up as a top three quarterback.

The Senate has opened. Oh, what? I am the Senate. He's going to have to step up. I don't like you getting in on this. Oh, but is he going to step up? Probably not. I don't like you saying he's the skeleton key to success. That's Ben's Senate, everybody. Yeah, tight end. Lamar Jackson comes in at number two in his own team. Lamar Jackson comes in at number two in our rankings. We all three have him at two, which means that just, you know, by extension.

Number one. Josh Allen is number one. So Lamar and Josh Allen at the tippy top of the board. Baltimore, high projected win total, favored in their first six weeks. Such a great pick, I think. They just locked up Zay Flowers. The optimism in Baltimore is extremely high. We want to see Lamar. You can't talk about depreciating performances in the...

in the aforementioned names and not talk about Lamar having a down season as well. I mean, Lamar was at 16.5 fantasy points per game. It was a bad year. So now we've been there. It was very hurt last year. We've been there before. And like Lamar has now earned the level of respect that winning as a bad year, you can say that's just, that's just not Lamar. But it's fair to say, like, he's bounced back from years where he was hurt.

and had lower performances to MVP seasons being the number one overall quarterback. That's what he was in 2024. He's been the number one quarterback twice, where he averaged over 25 fantasy points a game twice. So that's what a healthy Lamar Jackson brings to the table. Last year, missed time, missed games, lowest fantasy points per game.

lowest rushing yardage ever the rushing is the big one and it was so hurt man he was it was even worse and maybe it was because of the injury when he got back from the injury the second half of the year the nine games he played he was on a 16 game pace of 345 rushing yards you could see it you could see the way he was moving around and the decisions he was making of it were like oh healthy lamar jackson right there runs for 15 yards and he would turn that turn it down

And he'll turn 30 this year. So the rushing upside is the real question. Obviously, I think their weapons are better. They spent a couple of draft picks on some rookies. Zay Flowers is good. They've got a good running game. They're good organ. Sure, he's paid like he's great for sure. So the question for Lamar Jackson, who's broken fantasy two different times and basically guaranteed you a championship,

Will he run like Lamar Jackson of his career or is that high end, you know, 700 plus rushing yards? Is that done? That's the question to me that you have to, if you're drafting Lamar where he is, which is totally fine, you have to truly believe he's just getting back to rushing and he's healthy and the reason he didn't last year was because of the injury. What do you put the percentage chance that Josh Allen finishes is the QB1 versus the percentage chance that Lamar does?

80% if it's just versus those two. I think 80% chance that Josh Allen scores more fanos. Jesse Minner, the new head coach, Declan Doyle, a much less predictable offensive coordinator coming in. There's excitement from Lamar about this situation. They did draft a couple of rookie wide receivers to add to the bunch behind Zay Flowers, brought back Andrews. But again, this offense, we've seen Lamar be an MVP with no past catching options. He's very much like,

We've seen Josh Allen do it with really no pass catching options. So those two are in a special category. That's why they're at the tippy top of this ranking. The thing for Lamar is rushing. So last year, Baltimore was number one in early down rush rate. And like, not Lamar. Like this is, we're giving the ball to the Yeti. We're giving it to Derek Henry, which overall, it's a pretty good idea to go with. But the system, so Doyle's coming in from Chicago. This is a Ben Johnson.

type of system is what you have to project. 16th in early down rush rate. That means we're throwing more on first down. And that's good for fantasy football because we're getting Lamar some more numbers. It is also more opportunities to run. We talk about Jaden Daniels scramble rate. You can only scramble if you're given a passing attempt. And the way that this offense works, it wouldn't surprise me if Lamar scrambles even more.

based off of what his career averages are, as defenses have to respect things and drop back even more. So I'm very bullish. I look at last year of Lamar, I'm waving it off as this was like, that was truly the first. We all are, yeah. But I'm saying like, even the years he was hurt in 2021 and 22 when he played 12 games, he was 20 points a game, 19.7 points a game.

I mean, that's still not horrifically bad. In 23, he was at 20.7 points per game, and that was good for QB4. As in that range of three years, it wasn't all that different. He just happened to miss some games in two of the three years. Lamar is still perfectly finite, because I think that's the biggest question is, are you willing to forgive Lamar for last year and move forward with him as your QB1? Going in the fourth round, I 100% am.

Yeah, and the schedule is great for him to start the year. The schedule is great for Josh Allen to start the year as well in terms of being favored in five of six. Alan is a machine. He's the all-time leader in fantasy points per game at the position. He has shown that he can do it multiple ways. He was the quarterback one in 2021 with 35 passing touchdowns. He was the quarterback one in 2023 with, you know,

double-digit touchdowns on the ground 15 and he's he's only been in the 20s in passing touchdowns he was 35 plus for three straight years then he's in the 20s and it doesn't matter he's had two out of three years with the number one overall finish they have a goal line running back yeah I was going to say they added the tush push and that changed a lot you don't need the passing touchdowns if you know he's the big body back you know the big body quarterback you know the big body quarterback be

Just like Jalen Hertz. And so when you have those double-digit rushing touchdowns, like Lamar can't do that. They're not using Lamar on the goal line the same. He would have to like scramble out. They're not going to just push Lamar. They will do that with Josh Allen. Yeah. The cheek sneak. The left-sided cheek sneak. Here's a cool stat from Dwayne McFarlane on X. This is the playoff advance rates for Josh Allen on fantasy teams on ESPN by season.

So 2025 last year, 58% playoff advance rate. The year before, 58%, the year before 62%, the year before 59%, the year before 49%, the year before, 51%, and he's been all over the place. Sometimes he's been as high as pick 21 overall, and, you know, as low as 30, not including like his breakout year, is 105. So Josh Allen at 212. It's just never going to be a bad pick. And Lamar isn't, Lamar's QB2 per ADP in the fourth. The problem there is,

you play with fire on the weight. I mean, if you, look, if I could always get Lamar there, I just don't think that's going to be the case. That's where he's settling, but I think he's going to bounce around based on. Of course. And I just feel like I'd be nervous about the weight there. And if you believe that there is that big of a tear jump, then like Jason said, it's not going to be a bad pick. You don't mess that pick up. That pick is not ruined. You didn't draft a mistake.