Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - First Round Runnings Backs, Fantasy Face-off, Mailbag

I don't think he got enough time in your guys' opinion, or the fantasy face-off, because Monty Ball sucked. That's factual information that he was not good. He went down. Ronnie Hillman came in, and Ronnie Hillman was fantastic. Ronnie Hillman, Ronnie Hillman does not have the physique to hold up as a three-down back in the Kube system. C.J. Anderson has that.

build. So just with the numbers that Anderson has put up, it, I have, unfortunately, I have to put this off until later into training camp, just because your entire argument is based off of, will C.J. Anderson be the guy. I believe what you're saying is, is, if Anderson is the guy, then he's going to go up in your rankings. Am I, would I be correct in assuming that? If, if.

The preseason and camp look a certain way he would. I'm not going to be an idiot and leave him outside of my top 10 if they look a certain way. I do think it's a crowded backfield. I think from what Kubiak has said, he knows that a one back only system unless everyone's hurt isn't the way things are going. And it's still an offense that is not going to be his exact system and an offense in which...

blocking for Peyton Manning is going to take the cake. And somebody like Joanne Thompson can be in there on certain downs because of blocking acumen. So, yes, I'm going to adjust if that's the case. But I have no reason why Jason and I shouldn't water bet right now in some way. I have one final point before the waterbed is made. And it's the fact that C.J. Anderson was putting these numbers up during the mysterious decline of Peyton Manning, where we don't know if that was.

Did Peyton Manning all of a sudden fall off a cliff? Or was that really all predicated because he had injured his quad? So many questions. It's really questions everywhere. Here's the water bet. Here's the water bet. Carries? No, no, no, no. It should be about what we're talking about. Okay. I am saying C.J. Anderson is going to be their number one back. That's what I'm saying. I'm saying C.J. Anderson. I'm not arguing that he's not. I've said my entire take is that he is. It's just that it's going to be shared.

I think he's the best running back. All right. So that's why you got to do production. Are we doing what Final Fantasy finish or actual real-life stats? What are we talking about here? Well, it's very simple. If you think, let's just do where he finishes in fantasy. That's what it should be. Okay. Hit the button, man. We do that after we've established the back. I think C.J. Anderson finishes as an RB1. Well, so do I, according to my top 12. I have him at 11. Oh, okay. Top 10.

I... No, you've got him out. I've got him at seven. That's a threshold. I've got him as seven. Top ten. Um... Oh. Water bags. Let's do it, baby. All right. Top ten. Next week, Ronnie Hillen's going to tear his ACL and I'm going to be wet. But that was our first fantasy face off of this season and quite entertaining if you ask me. So, wonderful job. Let's go ahead and move on here. We've got some time left in this segment.

We're going to talk our last two out of our top 10. So let's talk to Marco Murray for a second. He's the next guy on our list. He's number nine on our consensus rankings. Obviously, he's got a lot of question marks. He was dominant last year. He was a one-cut downhill kind of guy. We had Andrew Goldwasser of NFL Spin Zone on the show. He talked about the carry breakdown. He saw a 55-35-10 carry breakdown between Murray, Matthews, and Sproles.

I think we all agree is carries are going to be down. I still have them at a very high yards per carry, but what are your guys' thoughts on DeMarco? Mike, it seemed like you moved him down a little bit in the last couple days. Just slightly, and that was a volume thing that I had a little bit of volume higher. However, the production is still very strong for me, and here's what I like about DeMarco Murray, especially going to that system. DeMarco has a 4.8 yard per carry average in his lifetime.

He's going from the second best run blocking line in the NFL to the best run blocking line in the NFL. He has great hands. He's averaged 55 catches in the last two years. Chip Kelly hand-picked DeMarco Murray. Chip Kelly had LaShawn McCoy, who is considered to be

an elite running back, and Chip Kelly said, eh, I'll take the guy who had 400 carries last year. Technically, he picked Frank Gore first. Yeah, that's true, but the reason that was... And then Ryan Matthews, is because they didn't think they were, that they had the money to get to Michael Murray, which I don't blame him. People, they had to have imagined that Murray was opportunistic along with getting a great case. So even with, without getting 400,000 carries,

I think this is a perfect situation for DeMarco. He won't have to run the ball every single down. He gets to use his skill set to the highest capacity, and he will be very effective. And I have him over five yards of carry again. So do I. I have him at 5.2. So I just, it's the perfect situation for me where if he had been back in Dallas, I would have been really, really wary on DeMarco Murray breaking down.

And here he has Ryan Matthews, who I really like, and Darren Sproles is a guy who I also like. Their backfield is set up for success with DeMarco Murray leading the way. Any thoughts from you, Jason, before we get on to our number 10 here? No, I think it's a good place for his health. I have him. Power smoothies, man. I have him lower. I've got him probably as near like the very back end of an RB1.

But more likely, I think he's going to be an RB2 because...

I agree that he's not going to get much more. He'll get the lion's share, but what is that going to be? 55, 60% of the touches. You know, you're talking about at the end of the year, I think he's going to have around the same touches of Jamal Charles. And while he's a good back, he is not as talented per touch as Jamal Charles. And I also think that there are, there is reason to suspect the pro football focus line rankings of the Eagles because there are other reputable.

line ranking companies that have the Eagles finishing last and next to last out for the last year. So the Eagles line's hard probably because of that Chip Kelly offense. So I like him. I think he's good, but I would take them as an RB2. It's not just getting touches and yards. It's touchdowns as well. I was going to say the touchdowns are what brings him back into my top 10 for me because of the productivity of that offense. They're going to score a lot of points. We already know that. So.

It's just hard to bet on him. I think consistency could be an issue from game to game a little bit, depending on what things are going on. And he hasn't been healthy his whole career either. So number 10 on our list, by the way, four of our guys were not in last year's top 10 ADP. Levy on Bell, Jeremy Hill, C.J. Anderson, and Arian Foster were not in the ADP of last year's top 10. Just kind of an interesting stat to see how things changed from year to year. The number 10 guys, the guy that was essentially...

whose spot is taken over by DeMarco in Philadelphia. He is now in Buffalo, and we're talking about Shady McCoy. Now, Shady's a guy that I probably have to speak to because I have him... Yes, you explain yourself. I have him at number three. You guys both have him outside your top ten, which I just think is ludicrous fading on him to that degree. Last I looked, you had him at 12 and 13, both of you, because you're both...

Yeah. Insane, I guess is the word I'll use. We'll see. To be kind. But here's why I like LaShawn McCoy. Yes, he had a down year. Yes, he has question marks. Yes, I think more often than not, you should be wary of a guy who is changing teams. But I think he's the exception. Here's why I have him at number three. Last year...

Rex Ryan was number three in rushing attempts on that New York offense. The year before, he was number six. When he had competent running backs in New York in 2009 and 2010, he was number one, he was number four in attempts. And so volume is one piece of the puzzle. The other piece is the team is already built to run the ball. Fred Jackson was number 11 overall at the running back position in a time share in Buffalo in 2013. The identity of that team is defense in running the ball. And now you have some competency at the quarterback position with Matt Castle coming in there.

Rex has reiterated verbatim, he said, I want to be, yes, we're going to ground and pound on offense. And so volume is something that McCoy has proven he can handle historically, and he's only 26 years old. He just signed a five-year, $40 million extension. You know he's the bell cow there. I have some concern at the goal line, not knowing exactly how that break that down. But I think from the, the reasons I like him is volume, the offense he's in, competency at the quarterback position, and a resume that has shown.

that he can handle the load. Now, the only other thing I will say is that I did not give him an outlandish yards per carry. I gave him 4.4 this year. He's a career 4.6 guy, but he's only 26 years old. And so I like him as a guy that can produce because the system is so good. And he is very talented. I know people faded on him last year because he was the ADP number one, but I like LaShawn McCoy. So obviously you guys don't.

Because I think that's fair to say you don't like LaShawn McCoy if he's in your 12 or 13. I love Lashon McCoy as an RB too. If I can have him as my second RB, I think his...

floor is pretty high just because he's going to get 300 touches. Plus, you know, he's going to get the touches. I've got him at 4.3 yards per carry. And I think in that offense, I don't think they're going to be putting up a lot of points. And he's not really a goal line type of back. So I don't see him with, you know, double-digit touchdowns. I see him with, you know, six touchdowns on the year. So if you go six touchdowns, 4.3, I just...

I don't think he's going to be the namesake, but I do think he's going to get voluminous work, which I love. So I'd like to grab, you know, a high potential RB1, and if I can get LaShawn McCoy as an RB2, if I could possibly do that. So we really, guys, we need to talk him down, okay, so that he can fall to the second round and I can get, you know, make that happen. No, I think those are fair points, too. That's a good take. You have any thoughts, Mike? I hit a question, which...

Maybe rhetorical, but because people talk so much about how they're concerned about DeMarco Murray's workload. Now, granted, he had a very high workload last year, but do we put everything into last year's workload, or do we put it into a cumulative fashion at all? Is that taken into account? Yeah, it is taken into account. It has to be. That's why Matt Forte and those guys need to be concerned with it. So over the last two years, Murray has 609 carries. Over the last two years,

Lashon McCoy is 626 carries. Yeah, he's actually the most in the entire league the last two years. I think the big difference there is injury history, right? DeMarco Murray has a history of getting injured. Lashon McCoy almost retired because of concussions. Are we forgetting about this? I forgot about it. Yeah, the season where he had, we played 12 games was because of concussions, and there was talk of him walking away from the game. Now,

I will continue to use the pro football focus line measurement of him only having 4.2 yards per carry behind what they graded out as the best run blocking line. He's moving to the Buffalo Bills, which pro football focus graded out as the worst run blocking line in the league. Andy's shaking his head. I'm not, I'm just telling you, I'm the messenger here. You're the messenger of the statistics about the line, but not the production of the running game.

Well, but Fred Jackson's a completely different type. He's going to be catching balls through the air and not being used as a running back. I mean, Rex Ryan is going to be using him as a up-the-middle runner, which is so weird because that's not. I haven't afforded receptions, too. Yeah, I'm not saying he won't catch the ball. This is what I'm saying, is Lashon McCoy. That is Shadies. I think that is Shadies. Between the tackles is what Shady's done his whole career. But Shady is a dancer. That's what he does.

He's all about agility. He's not a powerback. He was sent away by Chip Kelly because he dances too much. He's always trying to hit a home run. And if you can't settle it, if you're in the ground and pound and you don't want to settle for the three yards every single time, you're going to get negative two yards because that's not how the system works. And LaShawn McCoy has a dastardly history of he's either special.