Fantasy Football - Ice & Fire Show + We're Baaaaaaack! - Podcast for 8/3

I haven't cried in a bunch of years, but I feel like crying right now. I assume a lot of your argument's going to be the arguments I made about H&, but the ADP is the difference. So go ahead, Mike. They will be. They are pretty similar. Bad team. Bad team. But let's start with the actual player. Oh, no. This is, this one's good. This one is. You won't like these numbers. Oh, fight.

I'm really fine with you not liking him because he's on the Browns. I'm not going to be fine with what you say next. These are just statistics. So you can get mad at that. So rush success rate. I'm going to start with that. And sometimes it can get a little bit lost where you're like, what is that exactly? So rush success rate is based off of the down and distance, how many of the yards did the running back get? So.

whether a play gains at least 40% of the yards required on first down, 60% of the yards on second down, and then, of course, you need all the yards on a third or fourth down. And this is the way we say, you know, yards per carry, it's not everything. Things happen. You know, you get a bunch of carries inside the- Also, historically not.

A valuable metric to look at for rookies. Right. Sometimes you're inside the five and you get some carries and it's like, oh, my yards per carry was down a little bit there. But here's the thing. Rush success rate is like this is based off with the flow of the game. So like if, you know, like I said, 40% of the yards are first down. If you look at rush success rate out of 55 running backs, you got it? Is that the number? Judkins ranked 55. You think this man.

It cares about rush success. He's trying to survive in Cleveland. This is the open plains, Mike. This is survival. It's bad. Like to not be like to have truly a lack of success on your carries. You'll get a, you'll get a big one every once in a while and you'll score some touchdowns. But we're talking about overall efficiency. Like you're, you're absolutely just killing the offense. You can have players with a low yards per carry. Like so Emmanuel Wilson.

Under 4, but a 58% rush success. Bayshalt-Tooten, 3.7, that's real bad, but a 58% rush success, even the much maligned Zach Charbonnet, where we're like, why do they keep putting in charbes? 48%. And here's Quinn Sean Judkins at the very bottom at 41% of the time he's having a, what you would call a successful rush. As a receiver, 33%.

Only Devin Singletary was worse among qualified rookie running backs over the last decade. Efficiency-wise, he was lacking as the rookie, and I just don't see it changing for them. The Cleveland Browns was shockingly to me. The Cleveland Browns are a six and a half win total team, which is somehow better than the Miami Dolphins. Significantly better. They are 30th.

The Cleveland Browns are 30th in average implied total in terms of the total points that will be scored in their games. Cleveland is favored in only two games this year and none after their week 11 by. And the offensive line, in consensus offensive line rankings around everywhere, Cleveland is dead last in terms of what people are expecting from this offensive line. There was a point.

in your adoration for Kenneth Walker in which there were a lot of these numbers for you. But you believed in the player. And I admit it's going to be tough sledding for that offense. I think the Browns are going to be a better team than people expect. Losing Miles Garrett.

That's in the defense. Last year is the defense can keep you in games. The defense was number eight last year in fantasy points. They will not be number eight. They will still be a very good defense. They intercept a lot of passes. They cause a lot of force fumbles. I know Miles Garrett dominates a lot. They didn't get nobody back for him. You know what I mean? Yeah, yeah. I mean, you get Quinn coming in and I think that they're going to be a better team than people expect. I do.

Well, I... That part, Jason, will disagree with me. I think they will be... But every year you get surprised by some teams that are supposed to be basement dwellers. Plenty bad. And here's... Plenty bad is there. The difference between H.N. and Judkins. ADP, of course. You know, risk being baked into cost. But H.N. is an elite pass catcher. It is nice to have... Is Judkins an elite pass catcher? No.

No, they've talked about him being three-downs. Look, this is a belief in the talent of the player. The running back coach said he thinks he could be a three-down running back. I mean, it's better than him not saying that. Sure. This offense also has actual, like, if you look at what happened last year, there's no one to throw the ball to. Like adding Concepcion, adding Boston, having Fanon coming in here, they have some actual weapons.

They actually have good players on this team. He's not going to be alone. Spencer Fano tackle with the ninth pick overall. So that offensive line hopefully is better than it was last year, even if it's... Yeah, this one just hurts my heart. I totally get it. I actually am more on his side solely because I think he is a good player. A lot of those statistics and the yards per carry and stuff, I think if you go back and you watch the film, he was impressive. And if this offensive line is a little better, if Shadour is better, and he should be in year two,

I'm not going to be shocked. Where's his ADP? Let's just have that conversation. He is in the fifth round running back 22. I mean, I'm just, I'm all up in that. Yeah, at that point for a guy who can be a three down back. I knew it would be a tough day, man. If you look at last year, I knew that what was going on today. Last year, his rookie season, Quinchon Judkins, he got injured early in camp, didn't play week one, got worked back in a little bit in week two. From that point until the game where he got unfortunately injured.

He was playing a workhorse role. He was on pace for 300 rushing attempts. And yes, it was inefficient, but over 1,000 rushing yards as a rookie. I mean, if he's being drafted at running back 22 and you have him as ice, you probably have him below his ADP. I do. So then we can bet like a top 24 running back. That should be easy, you know. I mean, what you want? You're happy if you get a top 24?

had a Quinn Sean Judkins who's being drafted as running back 22. Well, let's go where my mark is right now. I'm confused now. That seems even better for me. Yeah, no, I did it backwards. You did. All right, fine. Go top 24. I did it backwards. I should have. This is where. Jason would have taken that bed. I saw it right away. I was like, here's where my mind is at. Here's where my mind is at because, hey, Ryan Heath gets another shout out. I would have given you top 20. Ryan Heath, another shout out to him.

Because we love Todd Monkin's offenses. Absolutely. They produce fantasy points for us. In Todd Monkin offenses, though, a different player has led in rush attempts per game and targets per game. Yeah, they have capable pass catchers that aren't quench on Judkins like Dylan Samson. And one of the wild ones about this is, you know, Doug Martin, you know, all the unfortunate stuff with Doug Martin, but as a player. RIP. Yeah.

In 2016, Doug Martin was averaging 16 rushing attempts per game, and Charles Sims led the running back position at 4.6 targets per game. Doug Martin had a season of 70 targets. This wasn't like he couldn't do it. They just changed. And then you've had, so Martin and Sims, Peyton Barber and Jaquiz Rogers, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill, and then of course Derek Henry and Justice Hill.

This is a team that's going to be losing a bunch of games. And Dylan Samson- You like Javonte more than him? I'm just thinking about it. Yeah, I do. Like there's a handful of guys that are probably in the not catching a ton of passes category. I was just curious where you might slot him. So it's like if they are losing, Samson's probably going to be on the field. And Samson is just, he was a better pass catcher than he was last year. So that, like, there's just so many problems of how many touchdown opportunities, losing games, those types of things. And then.

Opportunity cost. The way I look at it right now, running backs going right behind Judkins. David Montgomery. I'll take Judkins every day. I'll probably. I'll take Judkins there. That's okay. But then it's Tutin, DeAndre Swift, and Juddarian Price, all going after Quinshan Judkins. You would take Price over Judkins? I think, yeah. I mean, that's when I would easily go, Judkins. No, I'll take.

I'll take price. Where are you, Jay? I think I would go Judkins in most of those situations. I like the player. I like the talent. And it doesn't cost much. Yeah, you do get discounts when they play for the Browns. Yeah. Well, let's talk. Let's heat it up in here and talk about someone that I think we all like a dog, absolute dog. Fire. Tyler Warren.

Tyler Warren. Wolf. Yeah, I mean, you know, some of these tight ends out there, they don't got that dog in them. But Tyler Warren is a yak master, a yards after catch machine. He breaks tackles. He's a first read in their offense. Coming in the year two, I believe he's the centerpiece of the Colts offense. You know, it's Jonathan Taylor as in the running game. But in the passing game, you know,

Right now, the hotness is not Tyler Warren. It's Colston Loveland. It's the other year two tight end. However, statistically, like the better rookie season was Tyler Warren. I know Loveland got off to a slow start and had the playoffs that looked great, but Tyler Warren was awesome, especially...

when he had Daniel Jones. And now coming into early in the offseason, it seemed like, well, we're not sure if Daniel Jones will be ready for week one. If he'll start the season on the pup, Daniel Jones is full go 11 on 11 from day one of training camp. And while he might not be as mobile and running for his own fantasy value as a passer, Daniel Jones for this offense, like Tyler Warren should be even used more. There's all the arguments of,

You know, Andy is very in love with Alec Pierce because you have a lot of missing targets from Michael Pittman. I like Josh Downs. And a lot of dollars. But Tyler Warren is better than those guys. The argument over on the, you know, for the bears is like, well, is it Luther Bird and is it, is it Rome? And it's probably Mr. Loveland. But I think if I'm competing with targets, Loveland and Rome is greater sign.

than Josh Downs and Alec Pierce. I agree with that. Yeah, that's fair. So you have less competition. And this is playing for a team in Shane Steichen who designs plays for players. Daniel Jones threw to his first read 77% of the time. Well, I'm saying that my point is the first read target, the plays. He's going to build stuff specific to Tyler Warren. Yes. It just sounded funny like the other guys are.

drawn up plays for fans? I'm saying like specifically for a single player. Like this play design is to go to only this guy, which you saw, I mean, by far the like highest first read targets was Daniel Jones last year. And if you look at those games with Daniel Jones and the splits with Tyler Warren, up until week 13 of his rookie season, he was the tight in three in fantasy football. He was, he was great.

He was 10.7 a game at tight end as a rookie. We were at the point where we were like, we're going to do it again, like three straight years of the number one. Because we had, we had Laporta Bowers. We were like, Warren might be number one, which I think that's the biggest question for people on your fire pick is, can Warren be number one on the year? Because I think that that, so I believe that says something. I believe Warren can be in the mix for number one. The reason I.

maybe don't think he could be number one is not anything to do with Warren. It's Brock Bowers. I think Brock Bowers is going nuclear this year and no one will be able to catch him. And it'll be a difference maker of like Travis Kelsey of old where he's four points ahead of next. But I think Tyler Warren can be number two. I think Tyler Warren can go out and get 150 targets. And there's very few tight ends in the league. You're talking about Bowers. You're talking about Mick Bride. And I think Tyler Warren is in that realm of like the leader of the offense could be Tyler Warren. Last year.

He was one of only four rookie tight ends with 70 catches and 800 yards. That was Bowers, Leporta, and Jeremy Shockey back in the day. And the end of the season was so bad because he's playing with Philip Rivers, Grandpa Rivers and the collapse of the Colts that were not hot and bothered. The way that when the bears go into the playoffs and all of a sudden you see the...