Fantasy Football - Ice & Fire Show + We're Baaaaaaack! - Podcast for 8/3

If, you know, if he's not one of the top 12 that you're, when I draft, I'm either getting one of those top guys or I'm waiting until the very last pick. And there's been times where at that last pick, I'm basically waiting to see if I want Kelsey or Kincaid. And I do, I will say this, I usually go the other way. I'm trying to swing for the fences to have someone that is a higher upside. However, you know Kelsey will be.

involved in the offense will get, you know, if you're in a, especially a full PPR league, you should have a safe floor and it costs you nothing. The question is, could he score more around the goal line? I was going to ask, Mike, do you know, outside of the availability argument in the nine, you know, eight or nine points of game, is there a world in your mind that Travis Kelsey and a year older is making a jump up? That's kind of the decision. It's not a.

Like above those top five. Got names I gave you. No, no, no, no. Or Tucker Kraft. No. Or Kyle Pitts. Kyle Pitts, maybe. Okay. You know, for all the, what we're talking about here, last year, Kyle Pitts, even with the greatest game that a fantasy tight end has ever given us, 9.8 points per game. And Travis Kelsey was just overnight. Like, this is not a wide margin between the two, where Kyle Pitts could absolutely be.

Like he still has a ceiling that we don't know if it's there or if it's not. It won't be there for Kelsey. The upside play for him is he's so late in the draft and the addition of Kenneth Walker makes this offense better. And you actually, when you get into the inside the five, we used to get all those like the fun, the bowling ball throw to Travis Kelsey because the defense actually had to worry.

about is the running back going to get the ball? Yeah, Ken Walker makes it much better. So that's where I'm not going to push back a ton and say, like, I love Travis Kelsey or anything like that. I'm really curious about what third downs look like for the chiefs this year. Because to me, the third down magic last year was Mahomes' lakes. He would get out of situations and pick up a third down. If it's third and six, seven, and he's running down the field, spraying with water. I barely did. Spraying with water.

I'll get you next time. You know, is Kelsey going to be able to be open for those third down conversions? You know, how do they do that without Mahomes' legs? So there you go. My ice, not a surprising one, but also one I think, to me, I'm aiming elsewhere. I'm going elsewhere. I'm going to not appropriate too much to the name and expect too much from him. Travis Kelsey is. I know, I like the, if you're talking about, you know, the younger guys of Isaiah likely O'Conquo, guys that they probably will not pan out.

But they're at least at an age for football players that something good could happen that we're not really seeing yet. All right, who's up next? The suspense is building, Jason. All right. I'll go next. I'm going to go from a player who is in the double-digit rounds to a player who's very, very, very high in drafts, a player that we all love. And by we, I don't just mean the three of us. I mean the world.

A player I loved coming out. I'm also, however, getting cold. Oh, ice. It's Devon A. Chan is my ice pick for 2026. And this is closer to agree. Look, it's sad. I feel like you both are there and I am unhappy. So let me talk to you in. You think we're happy about these things? You currently have them as you're running back four. I get it. He was awesome last year.

He was so consistent. He had more than 11 fantasy points in every single game. There's only four running backs that have ever done that. Priest Holmes back in 2003, DeMarco Murray, Christian McCaffrey once, and last year's Devon ancient. And obviously, the dolphins were bad last year. So the argument is like, well, if the argument is that he's on a bad team and he's still on a bad team. However, he's on a much worse team. I mean, that's, hmm. So here's, here is my argument.

When I say he's on a much worse team, I'm saying how many total points are the Miami Dolphins going to score? Because without Waddle and without Tua and with no wide receiver weapons. Without Mike McDaniel. Exactly. Without Mike McDaniel, they are most likely going to score fewer points than last year. Now, if we look at the Vegas lines, they are projected for the 29th most total NFL points. That is really, really bad.

If you look at the wins, they are projected for a grand total of five and a half wins. No, no, no. Is it four and a half, Kyle? What is their projection? Three, three, two. Can I get a two? Four and a half wins. And so obviously we talk about we want players at the running back position from good teams that win games. That doesn't mean they can't come from a bad team and be good, but where is he being drafted?

Is he being drafted at a value, or is he not? And right now, he's being drafted at like the one-two turn. He is being drafted as a clear-cut RB1, very high. He's costing you a lot in fantasy, and very similar to how I had Ashen Genty as my bust pick last year. I look at the situation. I go, it's not going to return. You're going to make a mistake if you're taking them that high. It's going to work out poor for you. You have, first of all, over the last two years, he played with the quarterback.

that targeted the running back position more than any quarterback in the NFL. That is his superpower. A target is worth so much more than a carry for fantasy football. And those targets will certainly go down. Not only does he lose Tua, but he goes all the way to a quarterback that we don't know his tendencies because we haven't seen him much, but Malik Willis has wheels and might scramble instead of checking it down here or there. That makes sense. That sucks. But, you know, can it work for...

a team that wins four and a half games to have a running back really give you value at that one two turn in fantasy football. How rare his ADP is is crazy. Listen to this. Since 2014, there's only three running backs who were drafted in the top three rounds with a win total of five and a half or fewer. Isaiah Crowell back at 2017, David Johnson of 2019, and this year, Devon A. Chan.

being drafted, not just in the top three, but a borderline first round. That's his ADP? He's like 202 last I saw this morning. What running back is that? I think it was. I know I'm above eight. I think it was running back. Six or seven? Okay. Here's a study. And this, I think you'll like hearing, you won't like hearing this. But Brandon Goodula. That's the opposite. Yeah, yeah, yeah. I'm saying you need to hear this. Okay. I'm saying open your ears. Here's this thing that you'll like. Here's this thing that you're not going to like it.

It's like having your vegetables. You don't like it, but you really need it. And you need to hear this. Among running backs drafted in the first three rounds since 2014, only 27 were on teams projected for fewer than seven wins. And remember, A. Chan's at four and a half. 30% of that group outperformed their ADP in terms of fantasy points per game. There's just, he has to be.

outrageously perfect, have crazy high touchdown. The 44% of those fell shy of their expectation by at least two points per game. Yeah. Two PPR points. There's a weird thing going on this year. I'm trying to be very open-minded to this argument. I hate it because I think Devon A. Chan is in the Gibbs category of talent. He's a great player. And so we look at this and I'm looking at the ADP and the top. Like, all right, Bajon is.

Bijon's 7.5 wins for Atlanta. That's sub 500. It's not that same level. But then, like, you know, the Raiders. The Raiders are going to be at five and a half, six and a half, depending on the book you're looking at. Dolphins are at the bottom of that list. But it's interesting because all three of those names are in your top seven, top eight. Yeah. And so push is going to come to shove. I know you love Ashton Genti. Yes. And so it's hard for me to swallow Devon A-chan going from the singular most.

consistent running back. So his ability, his special talent last year to me was overcoming how horrendous the dolphins were. That was his gift. His gift was just somehow they're down by a million points. He still ends up with big performances. I hate doubting the talent of Devon HM, and that's what it feels like you're doing. Yeah, but it's not what I'm doing. Your numbers make sense, but you're playing the odds, not the player. I am playing the odds, not the player. And that's where we... Odds are

that Devon A-chan is a very bad bet. If you want to pick him at where he's going currently, and hopefully after this show, maybe he gets down into that, you know, middle of the third round. It's like, ooh, that's a value, you know, scoop him up. It just feels like he's going to have to be. And I know you agree, Mike. And I hear what you're saying. It makes sense. You have Mike McDaniel being gone is on it. That's the biggest red flag for me. And then Malik Willis, we know, you know, look.

Guys that scramble, you get fewer checkdowns. It does happen. It's just to play slightly devil's advocate argument, just to get your response to this. We also know that the absence of weapons lends itself towards a heavier involvement. This is a guy that got paid huge amounts of money this offseason. The offense is Devon H.N. He came out yesterday in training camp. He's focused on winning the rushing record.

For the season. I mean, that's the goal for him is to be the rushing leader. So for me, that's one where I drew the line on talent over situation. And that's the bet. Which I feel like we've done with Bijan for a number of you. When you take him at ADP, that is 100% the bet. It's like, what does it look like? What does this offense look like when A. Chan is everything? And I know he was like, he's a focal point of the offense. I admit that you have an argument there. But it's like, you still had Waddle.

last year, who is an elite player. And then ADP-wise, it's like, okay, right here, what I'm seeing right now, you know, Barkley, he's right around where A-Chane is going. And then right after A-Chan is Hampton, Chase Brown, Kenneth Walker, Derek Henry, all running backs that you will not be able to draft. Yeah, I mean, I could see an argument for Walker over him, Hampton over him, Chase Brown over him. I don't see, I don't see, I don't see Sequin or Henry over him.

Okay. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, he will get the ball a lot. My issue is I think it'll be more on the ground. Here's what we know. We know that every second and long, they will mistakenly hand the ball to A-chan because Bobby Sloak is there. That was so frustrating. Third and long is going to absolutely rip. I feel like part of this argument is you are, you're building an idiocy by the dolphins. Because only an idiot.

Would not give the ball to this man. No, I think they will give it to the man, but more in carries than in targets. And a target is worth so much more in fantasy football. What is the average? 6.1 to carry something like that, man. He's a great player. What is he average per target and half point on top of that? I'm saying fantasy points. Who are they going to throw it, too, if it's not him? I don't know. I mean, that's a long list of. No, I told you, it's going to be hard for me to swallow. I wanted to have the conversation, and the numbers are compelling. The numbers of your odds are not great.

I'm not sure the ADP is too expensive or not. That's the hard part. But you bring up some names where, like, I'm getting really toasty about Ken Walker. You know, it's like it seems like he's going to be the chief's offense. We have all these discussions around Rice and Cyrus Allen and Kelsey. It just feels like the chiefs are going to be Ken Walker and the defense. So that's a tough one. And then he's in this category of, I don't know if I want him at his ADP. But if he's on my opponent's team, I'm going to be like, ooh.

All right, what's got, Mike? All right. Well, speaking of Jalen Waddle, we'll just get right to it. Fire. Absolute fire. New Denver Broncos superstar Jalen Waddle. Yes, I have a Jalen Waddle problem, but I think we finally have a solution, guys. We got him over to Bo Nix and Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos. He's going right now about the back of the fourth, wide receiver 23. So a fringe wide receiver 2.

And just remember what happened. So Jalen Waddle, he's still in prime age. You know, he will be turning 28. We're okay with that. These are still some prime years for the wide receiver position. The Broncos traded a first, a future third, and fourth to go get Jalen Waddle. They looked at what they had last year in terms of past catchers and weapons. And Sean Peyton and crew decided this is not enough. You know, Bo Nix, what is the kind of?

Bonix threw the ball more than anyone in the NFL last year. And it doesn't feel like it because you didn't get the production because you didn't have a true elite player. The superlatives coming from Sean Payton about Jalen Waddle are already just topped here saying he walks on water with his traits. Talk about the great speed. Okay, Sean. Hey, perhaps a little blasphemous, but it's going to be good for your fantasy football team.

Great speed and stop. So that start, stop stuff, it's really important, and that's how Waddle can win. Last year, you know, in totality, it didn't fully work for Jalen Waddle and crew, but on a per route basis, look, man, still a leap. You know, we're talking to a player who is a 2.42 yards per route run, a 26% targets per route run. This is a guy that...