Midseason Review + Trade Targets, Hungry for More - Fantasy Football Podcast for 10/30

of a quarter and a half, two quarters of football where he looked bad. Don't you ask Mike who's got to make the decision on playing him this week? All right, Mike, are you willing to start Jordan Love with his hurt, growing, but active? I want to. I need to see. What's your other option? I just picked up Matthew Stafford. Oh. To me, I feel like I would rather play Stafford, who just threw four touchdowns with his team. I lean that way right now, but if you get the full go from Jordan Love, it will be very difficult to bench him. He's been, in full games, he's been fantastic. And it does project. I mean, I don't know what the over under is yet. We're not doing that preview, but I'm guessing 50 points. I mean, 48 and a half, says Kyle. 48 and a half, and maybe that's factoring in a little question mark next to Jordan Love's availability.

Doug Peterson says he feels good about Travis ETN playing in week 9. I think ETN is going to bounce back for fantasy players rest of season. The injuries at wide receiver, his capability in the passing game, and the team's vocal commitment to him tell me that ETN is going to have, you know, he's kind of been worthless. That's not the reality of ETN. So if you wanted to buy a super low, I think you're on to something. And I believe. You nailed it when you said that it's in the receiving game. They need more outlets for Trevor Lawrence to throw the ball and dumping it down to ETN has been something that works. You know, it's, you talk about, oh, maybe Tank Bigsby is going to take over more. And Deerunis Johnson was involved when Travis E.T.N. got injured. But he was more involved in the past game. They still weren't relying on Tank Bigsby in the receiving game. But this is a player who last year.

had 73 targets in Travis ETN. He's on the same pace this year. Without those wide receivers. So I don't think he's irrelevant. And right now I believe that a lot of fantasy managers who have him feel like they would be willing to just get a serviceable piece. If you've got like a startable wide receiver and a good defensive matchup, like just go make a crappy offer and see if someone wants to get out of the Travis ETN game. He had seven targets and 38% of snaps the last time we saw him on the field. That's nice. So something to pay attention to you. All right. That was today's news and notes presented by USAA Insurance. Learn more at USAA.com slash insurance. We'll take a break. We'll jump into the midseason review. Oh, apparently we have a drop for this. So I don't want to forget that. By the way, let me take a moment. Okay. Subtitles validated the fact that it was a legal shift. A legal shift. Subtitles did.

great work with um you know put putting their context together i see you think it was more of a i turn the volume up uh i don't know man it was you know it was a little suspect let's jump in review osaurus rags really really oh man i said we had a drop we were going to the archives i was like we have a drop Oh, just now? This one comes in from mid-season review. That's going to the archives. Classic listeners there. Yeah, the old mid-season review of source wrecks, as we've always called it. Why not use it? That's genius. Good work, Al. And by the way, the review of source wrecks was probably in its heyday, about 2015 to 2018. Yeah. Did it last that long? I think so. I think it did.

Every now and then. We'd do a review of Source Rex. It's now the most recent drop we've used. I think Brooks was one of the first ones. He was. Yeah. Yeah. You can't retire that thing. All right. Quarterbacks right now, we're looking at points per game. Minimum four games played. That makes me a little bit sad. Somebody get me the points per game on Joe Flacco because he played three games. I'm on it. And I would like to know where he slots in with these names because I think he might be relevant even in redraft. I've got it. I mean, in redraft rest of the season. Now, keep in mind, the first game, he only played 80% of snaps, but his points per game was 18.4. Where would that slide him in? 18.4 in the, that's his average in the three games. Correct. That would put him in just behind Joe Burrell. At eight. That's pretty good. Which would be just ahead of Kyler, Brock Purdy and Jordan Love. The top 10 right now, Lamar Jackson at 25.3. Who, doggie. Baker at 23. I think the interesting thing about Baker is that he is,

Like every other bit of separation at points per game is very tight. He's two points better than Jalen Hertz is right now. Hertz is at 21. Jaden Daniels at 20. And then Josh Allen at 19.9. Justin Fields is gone. So he is, he was at 18.9. Then Joe Burr at 18.5. Kyler at 18.2. Brock Purdy at 18.1 and Jordan Love at 18.1. So reactions to that to me. I mean, the Baker conversation. Moving forward, you know, I think people probably, some people wanted to get out of that business with the, I did not blame them if they did. Yeah, I'm still not completely 100%. Like Baker has looked perfect. He has played his version of perfect football. He scrambles when he needs to and picks up a lot of yards on the ground. He's reading the defense great. His pocket mobility is awesome. He's out there, you know, with lasers.

Laser Mayfield. I'd that freak the crap out of me. But I was looking at some stats and then that got me. Without the two star wide receivers, I view him at least until Mike Evans comes back as a streaming option, a good streaming option. Like I like Matthew Stafford quite a bit, but Matthew Stafford is not a player. I would start week in, week out. It's like, does he have a good matchup? So for instance, this week Baker Mayfield. I'd play Matthew Stafford. Yes, Baker Mayfield against Kansas City. It's going to be a real test. Now, if Baker comes out.

and is firing lasers against Kansas City. Maybe you just got to play him in all matchups. He will throw the ball. Let me put it this way. I think he will attempt 40 to 45 passes against the Kansas City Chiefs. So if that's the case, what's the result, right? I mean, last week was 50 attempts, the week before 45. Season average is 35.5 pass attempts for Baker. The Kansas City Chiefs have slowed games down, been pretty ugly. I'd be surprised if he gets up to 40, 45 in this matchup. Yeah, I'm very nervous. But you expect Kansas City to be ahead. I do. Yeah. I mean, it's, Baker's tough because he's just, he's voluming his way there. He's the touchdown leader, but I get that. I just could see a world where you're, you're kind of.

wishing you had stayed in the flames with Baker over the last five weeks instead of going to, you know, Matthew Stafford played a ton of football games with his best players last year. And there were a ton of terrible fantasy weeks. Sure. So I'm not saying he's going to do that this week. I like the pick. But let's just remember that he's had these players for a long, long time and not delivered because sometimes the game, Kyron, the red zone, the way the game goes, I just, I kind of hate to. miss out on what Baker's been doing, I guess. Yeah, I get it. And I mean, really, I can visualize how Baker has a very good game this week. I just don't think I've got the Cajonis to start him. I just, I'm afraid. I'm afraid of a good defense without weapons for Baker because they do struggle. They're the second worst team against tight ends and he's been using Kate Otten like crazy. Yeah, the matchup is there for Kate Otten for sure.

And they're middle of the pack against, for what it's worth, they're 16th in fantasy points given up to the quarterback position. That's not an area where they're like top five. Well, it is funny in the sense that I feel like usually at this point in a season, we've got a real clear indication on defenses. But this last week, they gave up three points more than the average to the Raiders in that divisional matchup. So they were kind of soft this last week. The week prior it was average against Brock Purdy. That's because Purdy had, what, multiple rushing touchdowns? Yeah, but he had them. The Saints and the Chargers, which are like not good defenses. So I just don't know over the last month, maybe Kansas City's passing defenses middle of the pack similar to the Vikings and the Ravens I was talking about earlier where it's like, this is a great defense, but you still have to throw on them. Well, let's look at these top 10 names and.

Who do you expect to be the most likely to fall out of the top 10 in the second half? And no, you can't choose Justin, Justin Fields. Well, he probably won't. His points per game will stay the same. Do you think, do you think Purdy? That's a real solid point, Mike. Definitely not falling out. Do you think Purdy is a name? Yeah, Purdy would be. Because of losing Iyuk. Well, Purdy is the one I would look at because, I mean, over, like his touchdown rate is. is lower than average right now. So maybe that regresses positively. But three rushing touchdowns here for Brock Purdy in the last two weeks when last year in 16 games, he had two of them for the entirety of the season. Three and eight games, that's like that's what's keeping him afloat right now. Do you believe that DAC is the most likely candidate to enter the top 10 over the rest of the season? You've got players 11.

is Sam Darnold right now. Bo Nix right behind him. Jared Goff, obviously always a threat week to week. And then Dak is sitting there at 18th right now. I think Dak will enter that. You know, I talked about him as my second half sleeper. The schedule after the San Francisco 49ers game that's now over is pretty bright and rosy, rest of the way it's top five for quarterbacks. I think he hops up in. The player I would pick to drop. that I'm a little bit confused about. And Andy, we literally sat down yesterday and watched every single offensive snap on a brilliant game. It's Kyler Murray. I don't know what to make of him, man. I don't either, man. The first month of the season, he was averaging 16.9 fantasy points was very inconsistent. And that's including a game where he was the number one where he just dominated the Rams. But now the last month, he's up to 19.6 fantasy points per game, has been consistent and looks better.

Is this just like which one is the real deal? Because I've never seen a player. I've never seen one that I can think of where not based upon matchup, but just based upon how the player woke up, goes out there and looks like he can't see the defense, can't find the open players, or sees everything crystal clear and it's like a savant. I mean, it's like who do you get on a week-to-week basis? I think if you want to look to the encouraging side for Kyla Murray, it would be the fact that he's played eight games. He's only had six of the eight games. He's had one touchdown. Okay? And he's still in the top ten. So his touchdown percentages, it's like four point something. He's also played, what, one game without Tray McBride, one game without Marvin Harrison. So there have been some bumps in the road.

where it hasn't really gone his way very often and he's still hanging around 18 something fantasy points again. That would be the more rose-colored perspective. He's got two home games coming up. Yeah, but one is against the number two ranked Chicago Bears this week. And I find it so fast. I'm playing against Andy in the League of Record. So I will recuse myself and I will recuse Andy here. I recuse myself. No, Mike, you can't. I recuse you, Andy. The most fascinating. matchup here. He has Kyler Murray and Caleb Williams. Okay. Caleb Williams coming off a dud, Kyler coming off a good game. But the Arizona Cardinals defense, not great against quarterbacks. Right. And the Bears great against quarterbacks. And he has to make that decision. And I'm sitting there going, like, I hope he plays Kyler. Or I'm sorry, I hope he plays Caleb. I thought you recused. I'm just, I'm not giving my, okay, all right, I.

Can we strike that from the record? Inadmissible. Also, I feel like stricken. I will have to be not recused at some point to make the call. Yes. But Mike, who do you think is the better play? Matchup or player? I know the answer of what Mike's going to say. I would play Kyla. Oh, okay. Never mind. I didn't know it. No. I would play Kyler at home. That's who's in my lineup. And I also tried to get rid of Caleb this morning, so I don't have to make the decision. And literally that's why. I tried to just. I wanted to just sell them off for Fab so I don't have to make the call. I lost last week making that call incorrectly. Well, so I'll probably lose doing that again. At running back, looking at the top 15 and fancy points per game, half PPR, Henry, and get this, here's what's more amazing to me. Henry's at 21.4. 0.4 points behind him is Joe Mixing. So Henry's made, he's been the headline. Joe Mixon is sitting 0.4 points.

Behind it. 21.4 and 21 fantasy points per game. That is number one and number two on a points per game basis. Only, only if you think that the dolphins are not different with and without Tua. Because in games with Tua, Devon A. Chan, 23 points per game should be the running back one. How many games is that? Three, three. Three games? Yeah. I mean, you got to bring that up. Yeah, he's like bringing up Josh Downs with or without Joe Flacco. I think it's worth bringing up. Yeah, he's not in this list. He's not in the top 15 in points per game right now, but if you look, I mean, we throw out. He didn't have Moster though for two of the three games. Um, most there this last game. I think Moster. I think Moster was out both those other games. Oh, okay. He played, no, he played week one. He got knocked out on the first play of the game.

It was the first snap. No, Moster played 44% of snaps. In week one? He played 46% of snaps this last week. So he, so two of the three games was with Moster. I swore he got hurt on the first play. He may have gotten hurt on the first play, but he powered through what he could. Interesting. He was inefficient that week. I, um, yeah, it is worth bringing up. So you wanted to just hijack the order real quick with A-chan. Well, because he's, the order starts with A-chan. If you're talking about, Like we don't view two. I don't think A. Chan deserves to be included because of the fact he's got a huge injury history and misses games. So him playing and averaging that over time is the only thing I care about. That's fine. I mean, my point is Tyree Kill. You know, we throw out the games. Joe Mixon's already missed three games. Yeah. Thank you, Mike. I mean, these are all good points from all angles here. But, you know, you don't look at Tyree Kill and factor in his full season PPR.

Like, that's just irrelevant. It's nonsense. No one would do that. Even casuals wouldn't do that. So you shouldn't really do that with Devon H. And he's, he has utterly dominated in games with Tua because of the receiving work. So now let's go to Derek Henry, Joe Mixon, and beyond. Well, Sequin's at 19.4, Chiron at 18.5. Gibbs at 18. Gibbs is hilarious because you don't get to see him on the field. as much as everybody else. And yet, because he's too good. He burns too bright. He's always a 70-yard touchdown in the making. I mean, he's had two huge touchdowns in the last two games. Camara, Kenneth Walker, Jonathan Taylor, who you talked about earlier, James Cook at nine. He has slipped a little bit. Bejanne Robinson at 10. And Jason, I got to keep reading here. Kareem Hunt at 15. That's wild. David Montgomery, D'Andre Swift, Aaron Jones, and then at 15. Breeze Hall.

I was talking about this yesterday in the studio. Just, Brees Hall is so frustrating because from a fantasy standpoint, he goes out. I mean, I'll say kind of the same with Bijon. I've got these two guys as like my one two punch in dynasty. And they are frustrating, man, because you watch the talent on the field. You watch the breakaway speed for Brees. You watch just the electric cuts and athleticism of Bijon. And you say, why aren't these guys? consistent. Why aren't they every single week a floor of, you know, 13, 14 fantasy points and they just are able to disappear? It shouldn't happen. And what's most concerning for Brise is the fact that he, once the changeover was made with the offensive coordinator, we saw him out there with 87, 82% of the snaps the first two weeks. We saw him with the vast majority of the running back shares, 100% of, you know, the running back targets.

And now this last week, it was a real down week from a utilization standpoint comparatively to those first two seats. I don't know. It's frustrating. Do you expect Brees to rest of season be better than 15 or just stick where he is and keep doing what he's been doing? Well, I mean, you can ask the question based on who's ahead of him and whether you'd take Brees rest of season over them. And I don't see a lot of names that I would. I mean, I'd probably take I'd take Brees over Swift, who's two spots higher. I'd take him over Aaron Jones. But I mean, beyond that.

I'm not going to take them over. I mean, you could have the debate about Montgomery. Yeah, I'd take three summer Montgomery. But Hunt is a hard one. I mean, you're like. Dude, I will say this. I genuinely. I have, in League of Record, my running backs are Brees Hall and David Montgomery. And I know who my one is. My one is David Montgomery. Like, he's just more consistent and better on a weekend, week out basis. I'm more confident in his start every single week than Brees. So I'm not sure that I will. Look at the offensive difference there. Like, I'm not even sure like David Montgomery doesn't have more red zone chances in a committee on a regular basis than Brees does. I'm sure that he does have more. He has to, right? Even like the lines are going up putting up 40, 50 points a game. The Jets can't get out of their own way. Yeah. So at the bottom here of the top 15, Brees is very interesting. Kareem Hunt is also very interesting. He's been.

He's been riding hot on touchdowns, which could still happen because you're on the Chiefs and you got Patrick Mahomes, but usually around the goal line, they do fancy little shovel passes that they haven't been doing lately. And he's not, I'm shocked how little Cream Hunt has been involved in the receiving game. Because he's, you know, when he was formerly a chief, very involved in the receiving game. And so far, two receptions, one reception, two receptions, one reception in his four games. Also, you do have Isaiah Pacheco. I was going to bring the name up. That's what I've been over here, trying to find actual information. Oh, I got the info, man. Do you? Well, I'm just, dude, I'm waiting for him to come back praying he could come back. And the latest thing that I've seen were it's like optimism is he shared. There's a video from him on the 21st running on a treadmill. Now he doesn't have shoes on and I'm, I'm going to be honest, man. He was walking on a treadmill. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And the tech says he's running on a treadmill. It does. I want to see him running. But, but point being.

Like this isn't a next week thing. It's a does. And I don't even know if this is a, I'm going to pick up and stash Pacheco and just cross my fingers. But it's a, what happens in the fantasy playoffs if all of a sudden Isaiah Pacheco is back and splitting time with Kareem Hunt. Like it could, it's just, it's a, it's a situation that might get blown up. But I don't, again, we don't have a ton of information. But I've, I've seen whispers of. hope that by the end of the year that Pacheco could be on the field. I have as well. And I know that we've said on this show a couple times, like I have counted Pacheco has gone for the season. And that is how I've managed my roster. I don't think he's coming back. That's like the blinders I put on to make sure that I'm doing what I need to do for my team. I do believe he comes back during this NFL season before the playoffs.

Whether that's in time for the fantasy playoffs or before the fantasy playoffs is a question. But that does hurt the long-term outlook to me of Kareem Hunt. You could end up having Kareem Hunt, get you to the playoffs, and then disappear. So just be prepared for that. Most likely to drop out of this list. Let's just say most likely to drop out of that top 10 of Henry, Mix, and Barkley, Kyron, Gibbs, Camero, Walker, Taylor, Cook, and Bijon. You know, it's tough. I think I would have answered Camara before this last week and the contract and the car return. Yeah, I think Camara goes north. I think Camara overtakes Gibbs. That's tough to pick a name from that group. I think maybe it's James Cook. James Cook. Because he's been so touchdown dependent. Now, speaking of Camara, I'm not factoring in Derek Carr games in or out, but it's because like his, he's been great. I'm not trying to, I'm not taking away from Camara.

But it's like his average is, for this list is he's number six. He had a 43 point game. Again, I'm not taking that away from him, but it's like since the 43 point game, which was week two when everyone got bamboozled into thinking that the New Orleans Saints are actually good. Yeah, and we put a thing on the wall. Yeah, it turns out they're not as good as they were in the first two weeks. But so from week three through eight, so after the 43 point game. He's at 13 and a half point. Still very good. It's just a, that's not, that's not almost 18 points a game. Yeah, if I had to pick one in the top to drop, and not necessarily to drop out of the top 10, but to drop who I think is overperforming what he'll do for the whole season, and he's been excellent. This is not an anti-player case, but I think Joe Mixen has been.

Running a little hot. Running a little hot. I mean, he's, you know, he's averaging 4.9 yards of carry, which he hasn't done since his second year in the league, which was a long time ago. Also losing Stefan Diggs, you know, it's not going to help in the short term from a stacked box perspective. And you've also got a lot of touchdowns. He's got five touchdowns already on the ground, one through the air. So I can see Joe Mixen not being the sensational superstar. He hasn't even had a week where he's not a top five running back. That's not going to happen for the full season. That might be true, but I'd expect targets to go up for him, and he's already on pace for over 70, or around 70. So it's a strong bunch at the top. It is. It's a good follow-up to what we talked about yesterday with the late running back strategy, the zero-r-be, most likely to slip into that top list. You already said Devon A-chan. Slip in. Yeah, I think that's a topic.

That's the easy one. But of the guys who are next in the highest of average, you have Dobbins, Jacobs, Brian Robinson, H.N. and James Connor. If anyone's going to jump into that, I would go James Connor. That's the name I would say too. I'm actually a little surprised at his points of the game are that low. I am, yeah. Yeah. So this is a player, and it's worth noting. There are players that do this consistently over their career, and they are a certain build. of player where the second half of the season when human beings are banged up and the weather gets colder and you know and these big bruising backs derrick henry has done it time and time again just been a second half sensation um nodji harris the last couple years has done it and james connor has done it the second half of seasons these big bruising backs it's harder to tackle them i don't i mean that's anecdotal but there is

data on their career that just support that. So that's why I would have his name. Making it not anecdotal. Well, I'm saying it's anecdotal for the reason of it's hard to tackle. I don't know the reason, but we've got historical evidence of the second half of the season for some of these big body backs breaking more tackles. All right. We'll take a break. Come back with whiteouts. All right. We're going to turn the page here, midseason review. Fly through the wide receivers. Number one, Nico Collins at 18.1 points per game. Oh, I feel so bad for you, Mike. Yeah, my sweet Nico. Well, I'll be back next week. AJ Brown at 17.3. Both those guys have been hurt. Jamar Chase 16.8. Justin Jefferson at 16.5. And then, oh, Chris Godwin. Chris Godwin was on pace for 121, 1412, and is now gone. Beyond that, C.D. Lamb is sitting at six in points per game. So one big week for C.D.

erased a lot of fears last week. Malik neighbors at 15.1, Brian Thomas Jr. sitting there at 13.4. T. Higgins at 13.3, day to day, of course. And then Drake London at 13.3. So, you know, glaring omissions from that top 10 right now, Amun Ra at 13. He scored. in five straight games and is still sitting at 13, which, you know, the volume has not quite been there because they've been so effective on the ground. On the ground and in some of the misdirection. And they haven't been in competitive games. I mean, if you don't need to do anything but waste the clock, they scored. I mean, look, it was a full team effort, of course, because they had the special teams of this past week, but just hilarious to see.

Versus the Tennessee Titans, the Detroit Lions won 52 to 14, and Amin Ra had two targets. Two for seven yards and a score. They're goodness he scored. If you look at the last two years, he has averaged 155 targets in both the last two years where he's been dominant. And this season, he's on pace for 128 right now just because that running game is unstoppable. Yeah, and, you know, the defense is very good. I still... But, I mean, you're disappointed in Leporta and you're disappointed in Amin Ra relative to where you drafted them this year. Yeah, you are, but I am... And golf. I am still... I certainly expect Amman Ra to finish in the top ten. When you watch the games, some of these have gotten out of hand, and Amman Ra has been unnecessary, but whenever the game is not out of hand, Amman Ra is usually the clear chain mover, the primary target, nothing has changed there.