Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Top 5 RBs, Numberfire's Joe Juan, Mailbag Surprise

their week one prices oh did they really yeah so you can get it yep you can get in there right now get your deposit bonus i gotta go yeah i'm serious i want to log in like that's why i was talking about this for it so anyways um yeah so i would definitely uh use our promo code ballers it helps you guys helps us gets you up to two hundred dollars so when you sign up make your deposit and uh do you see what is on on my note pad right here nothing no not nothing what is that

That is a piece of your Oreo that has come all the way across. From the other side of the desk. I am such an impressive eater. That is, I have chocolate on my no pet. Working on my gut instincts. Not too bad. But my point that I was saying earlier is that.

Well, gut matters, and it does. People that want to discount it, I think, are wrong because people have a history of good gut calls. But we do stat everybody out, and we are very analytical here. So sometimes, you know, for instance, on my gut, I don't really love Ben Roslisberger, but I stat in a mountain. He was my number five quarterback. And so I'm going to go with that over my gut. All right. Let's go ahead and talk some running backs in today's show. I went through my rankings. I released a new set of rankings, wide receivers, running backs, quarterbacks.

I came up with a new top five. Some things changed. Some guys went up and down. Even guys were not talking about today. This is standard league scoring, right? So that means no PPR. No points for research. So I've got my top five here. I want to get your opinion on them. I've got five guys. Maybe you'll be surprised. Maybe you won't. But number five, we're talking about Jamal Charles. Jay Charles. Now, he's going, I mean, he's in that top consideration. There are guys taking him at number one. I think most lists have him at...

at about two. I think his average is about two. And so he's my number five. The big headline with him is he only got 206 carries last year. And so you can look at that two ways, right? Warning sign because the offense just isn't given him the ball enough. Or, wow, he did a lot with 26 carries. Exactly. He doesn't need as many carries to do what he does. And I think that that's more likely the situation is the fact that you know he's not going to all of a sudden get less carries than he got last year. And even with those carries last year, you know, he produced.

Pretty darn good with that. High touchdown totals for low carries. He had nine touchdowns last year coming off a year before that with 12. Well, he's just a fan. I mean, he's a phenomenal running back. You watch him with the ball in your hand, and it was so frustrating last year as an owner watching him not get the ball more. And then after the game, have Andy Reid say, you know, I should have got Jamal Charles the ball more. That was tough. Yeah, I know. But despite that, 14 total touchdowns, because he's catching passes.

I mean, five passing touchdowns last year, seven the year before. So back-to-back seasons of 19 and 14 touchdowns, regardless of your carry numbers, he's still averaging five a carry. And so I think regardless of the Andy Reed variable, he's a great running back. Yeah, he's my number four. So we're both down just a smidgen on him than the average draft position, but I mean, still top five. It's very marginal the difference here. And again, we're talking about he probably comes up a little in a PPR. For sure. Over probably my next guy on this list. So do you want to move on to number four?

Yeah, let's take a look. Who you got? Jeremy Hill is my number four overall running back, 222 attempts. I know. I know. I don't have a tattoo to, like, tear my shirt off and display. But in a standard league, I think Jeremy Hill is the new Marshal on Lynch. Yeah, so this is a bold statement, maybe. That's the question that I wanted to bring up to you, because the difference in our guys, you've got one guy off the list.

that isn't on your top five, who is on mine, and actually, spoiler alert, he's my number one. Yeah, I know. So I think you're crazy. Okay. However, the one guy that I have in my top five that you don't is Marshawn Lynch. So really it's Marshawn Lynch versus Jeremy Hill. New Blood versus Old Blood. It's both of them are, you know, great in a standard league. They project to score touchdowns to get the Rock a lot. Is that one of those things where, I mean, they're still close in our rankings, right? Yeah. Jeremy Hill and Lynch.

I mean, Lynch could have been here for a lot of lists. He'll off this list. So is that a personality thing for a fantasy player where they want to put in what's been working versus what has long-term upside? Is this going to draw the line a lot in redraft versus dynasty leagues? I mean, how do you see those two guys? Because do you believe Hill is a future Lynch type guy? You know, he's a first and second down, goal line, good yards per carry between the tackle.

Stud. I mean, 22 carries nine touchdowns on the ground last year. 5.1 a carry. Yeah, I do. Very much so. In fact, in my rank is when I looked at yours and I saw you had him at four, I mean, that's so high for a guy who really only came on half of a year last year. And I went back, looked at his game logs and looked at my statting for him. And I've got him in a standard league. I've got him at number six. So I'm not that far off. And the question is, really...

Who would you rather have tried and true, which in my opinion in a redraft league, if you're not keeping anybody, you can't keep anybody at the end of this year, I'd much rather have Marshawn Lynch. Because I feel like even though there's maybe minor question marks with Lynch, like the fact that they lost their sinner, Max Unger's gone, and Jimmy Grand comes in, you still know what you have in Marshawn Lynch. And they paid him a lot of money to take that ball. Whereas in Jeremy Hill...

Jeremy Hill benefited from Gio Bernard's injury, and then after he came back still had a huge workload, but you have no guarantee yet that he's going to be the guy getting 275, 300 carries. If he does, he's going to be an absolute piece. No, that's a projection, and that is talent plus opportunity plus offensive system. To me, if I can keep a guy in my league...

I go Hill over Lynch. If I can't keep a guy in my league, I go Lynch over Hill. Yeah. And the one thing about Lynch, too, is he's going to catch more passes than Jeremy Hill will. And that's changed more in recent years. Jeremy Hill can catch. He just isn't used in that role. So the listeners understand then the difference that I have statistically with them has to do with touchdowns. I have Hill actually scoring two more touchdowns than Lynch this year. And then I have him getting, I have him about the same amount of carries. And I just have his yards per carry a little higher. So he's got a little bit higher total.

total carry number. So those things, they're so close. But he's my number four, Jamal Charles number five, Jeremy Hill number four. Number three was, uh, is he your number three, too, or what is that? No, his last name. Oh, oh. Levy on Bell is my number three overall running back right now as of July 22nd. He is, however, also my number three. So the bell is very appropriate here. Yeah, we have a consensus.

290 carries, 1,300 yards, 4.7 to carry, 8 touchdowns on the ground, and he caught so many passes. 83 receptions on 105 targets, three touchdowns due to the air. He was the workhorse of the team. For sure. He was the cog that made, I mean, one of the cogs, but he was really the centerpiece of the offense. He opened it up for the receivers. He took all the dump-offs, and when you got the ball in his hand, he got...

yards every single time. So he's a valuable tool that I think they're going to miss for those first few games. And so my question really is on his knee. That's what he's going to say. We barely talked about that last episode. You know, everyone worries about the suspension. And I think that that's something you can overcome in the draft. If you know you're drafting him, then you make appropriate picks later in your draft. Maybe he becomes a value. Yeah, exactly. Because if he wasn't injured, he would be everyone's number one.

I think without a doubt. Yeah, one or two. He was such a difference maker at running back last year. You just have to take the gamble that he could reproduce that. But with the knee injury, you know, is there any consideration for you? Let's say you're on the board, and Levian Bell's there, and Marshaun Lynch and Jeremy Hill are all there. Is there any chance that you would say, I'm going to take one of those guys? Or in my case, well, in my case would be easy, but I won't say that. The answer is yes, because those decisions, these rankings aren't, you know, these are vacuum rankings.

So if I'm in a draft, I know the teams around me depends on those type of things. I mean, I might not want to take a guy that's sitting for a quarter of the fantasy season. Right. It could be as simple as that. If a guy is statted so closely in your mind, why take the guy that could miss three games? I can answer that question for you why you would. And the reason you would is a wrong reason. It's because your sheet in front of you.

says he is higher than those other guys. And so that's what you're kind of bringing up. Don't be blind about your rankings. I make rankings, and then when I go into a draft with those rankings, I sometimes reorder them, depending on obviously on the draft. But I'll take a look at the makeup of my team and those around me and say, you know, if this is a really competitive league and I'm going to have a struggle to make the playoffs, then I'm not going to take Levion Bell because I want to make sure that I make the playoffs and don't just worry about winning the championship.

and that alone and missing out on the playoffs and being an idiot. Yeah. I mean, if you know that you are probably going to draft wide receiver with your second pick, your third pick, because of the way that your draft is going or the way that you think it will go with the other teams. Your draft slot. What's available, then you make that decision. Do I really want my only running back that I can play to come in the fourth or fifth round? Yeah. But for the first three weeks. So just like what you said, you have to consider those things. But Levy on Bill, I think at the end of the year, statistically, the way I'm projecting him is number three.

Yeah. And for you as well. Me, yep. So number two is Adrian Peterson. We talked about him in News and Notes. It's not often a guy with 21 total carries last year ends up at number two on a ranking, but there is only one Adrian Peterson. There is only one. And money is not his motivation on the field. You know what's funny is that when I look at my top running backs, you know, you've got a handful of guys, right? Five, six, seven guys that are top tier.

workhorse running backs. And each one of them, I just basically put, how many question marks do I have behind him? Yep. How many question marks do I have about Levi-on-Bel? I've got his suspension, I've got his knee, Jeremy Hill, he's young, he's got this, Marshaun Lynch, he's got Max Unger leaving, he's got Jimmy Graham coming in. I've got the question mark kind of category, and that's almost my separator in those top guys. And it's so funny to me because I look at Adrian Peterson, and I'm not even joking.

The thing I love about him is that he has zero question marks to me, which is ludicrous because he should have question marks, right? He had a whole year off. He's old, but he's Adrian Peterson. The number that you need to pay attention to is seven. Tell me why. Because that's how many consecutive years he's had double-digit touchdowns in the NFL. Yeah, and over, I think, 1100 yards or 1,000 or something. Yeah, he had one injury short in 2011, where he ended up at 970. But he is as...

I mean, like you said, no question marks. I mean, Jared McKinnon, if you want to know what Jared McKinn's role is, it's going to be to come in on third down every fifth drive. Right, exactly. I'm serious. That's the actual... That is what it's going to do. You don't take Adrian Peterson off the field. You put him in a situation now with Norv Turner. He's your clear goal line back. He's a good pass catcher. They've just never utilized him. No, I mean, he's caught 50. I mean, he's had 43 receptions, 40 receptions in the past. Yeah.

And Teddy Bridgewater is there, and the offense is going to be better. Charles Johnson, guys around him. There's a lot of reason to believe that Minnesota will be in ball games. Last time people doubted him, obviously, was when he had the ACL injury, and people didn't want to draft him. And he came back and was...

a monster, like not a human being. No. And then you give him rest right now, and he has a chip on his shoulder the size of Texas. And I really, really, really think, I mean, to me, he is. He's got $20 million on his shoulders now. Yeah, he's my number two, and I really struggle. When I've got that number one spot. Yeah, I struggle not taking Adrian. I struggle not taking Adrian Peterson. I have him at 280 carries for 1,400 yards, 11 touchdowns on the ground,

up to 45 receptions in the air, which will be about, that would be his career high in receptions. He's done the 40, 43. But with Norv Turner there and what he's done with Ladani and Tomlinson in the past, the potential for Adrian Peterson and that team being in every ballgame or a lot of ball games, I think sky's the limit. Who else could possibly be stealing goal line carries from Adrian Peterson? That's all you need to know. Matt, Aziata. Oh, I totally forgot about Matt Aziata. You want to know what's funny is my number one guy. We're going to move to him right now.

Should be Eddie Lacey, but is... It is not Eddie Lacey, which means that Eddie Lacey, just so everyone knows up there, I love Eddie Lacey. These guys are close, right? They get statted out close. He's my number six. Okay, so he's out of my top five, which is why we're not about to talk to about. You talk about question marks? This next guy, I think, has as... I don't think he has very many. And we'll debate this. Yeah. Aryan Foster is my number one running back this year. No, it's not 2012, but Arian Foster is my number one back for this season.

Look, when he played last year, he was an absolute game changer. It's the same argument of Levion Bell, people that love him, because you are going to beat every other running back that you're going up against week and week out when he's on the field. He gets the carries. He is a phenomenal running back. The question mark to me, I don't have many question marks. There's just one, but it's a bigger one. I have bolded that question mark in my font, and that is his injury.