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Main show · August 17, 2020

Top 10 TE Rankings + Fantasy Nosedives - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/17

RSSAug 17, 2020 · transcript indexed
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Top 10 TE Rankings + Fantasy Nosedives - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/17

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134 passages
41:49 ↗

But he did it on 55% of snaps. And it was tight in or touchdown dependent. That being said, he arrives in New Orleans from week five on. Okay. So you give him, I'm going to give him four weeks to get acclimated in the offense with Drew Breeze because I choose to make that argument right now. And also Breeze was injured. From week five on.

42:18 ↗

And this was with missing two games. He was on pace for 984 yards and 15 touchdowns. So you're betting, like Jared Cook is much more the traditional tight-in bet where you're saying he needs to score for me.

42:36 ↗

But it was really, really good for Jared Cook from week five on, including five finishes in the top six and no finish outside the top 14. So he never actually hurt you despite the fact that some of these games, he had like two receptions for two touchdowns. He got it done. So I don't, you know, I'm fairly confident in this offense and I'm fairly confident in Jared Cook being a weapon, the last two years finishing in the top seven at the position. And he's a 10th round pick. So that's the point where I started to go, well.

43:06 ↗

I know on the live stream yesterday, Mike, you said you're out on Jared Cook. I'm out. I'm going to let you tell the Foot Clan why they should be out. Before you do, I'm going to say why I am in. I realize Emmanuel Sanders is coming in, and he's a low, volume, high, weekly volatility player. But.

43:23 ↗

He is going in the double-digit round, so he doesn't cost me a wide receiver running back. And in that place, he is, he has been a known commodity, a solid fantasy producer. And if you look at the games, like Andy said, he came, okay, you give him a little pass in those first couple weeks. He's acclimating to a new team, a new system. But also then Drew Breeze was injured. By the time Drew Breeze came back, Jared Cook was actually missing those games. So week 10 on is when you had Breeze with Cook. And at that point on,

43:52 ↗

He was the Titan 1. He was ahead of Travis Kelsey, ahead of Tyler Higby. That's up there. I'm taking the shot. That's what I'm doing in the 10th round. But Mike, you have the floor. What week on was that? Week 10. Week 10. That was when he came back from Indra. That's eight games. Right. Yes. Yeah. Okay. So I will say I am a little bit shocked of the ADP for Jared Cook and the 10th round, which I mean, I'm out.

44:21 ↗

I'm going to explain that, but 10th round is really not too bad. But here is why I am out. No other tide end outproduced based on volume than Jared Cook, like you guys were saying. He was 16th in targets, but the tight end 7 in fantasy. He had a 14% target share in the games that he played. That is a lower target share than T.J. Hawkinson, than Jack Doyle. His 16.4 yards per reception, which was...

44:50 ↗

Clearly the highest last year at Tide-in because since the year 2000, tight-ins who had 50 or more targets, that's the highest yards per reception. Jared Cook last year. That's called outproducing. That's called an outlier year, an unbelievably high efficiency year. And this is 16.4 yards per reception. He's been 12.7 yards per reception. Jared Cook, the last five years. So massive outlier in efficiency.

45:20 ↗

It just reminds me so much of the Eric Ebron Colts season where Eric Ebron had 750 yards and 13 touchdowns. Jared Cook, 705 yards, nine touchdowns. The ADP, like I said, it's not as bad as I thought it was going to be. Two great players there, Mike. I know. How did it go next year for Eric Ebron? Probably got into it. There's going to be more volatility with Jared Cook's outcomes because of the target holds.

45:44 ↗

Yes. And because of Jared Kuk. Yeah, he's, Jared Kuk is the tight end or the target four on the team, right? I mean, obviously Michael Thomas, Kamara and Emmanuel Sanders will have more targets than your kick. So you've got to get those touchdowns or those big plays. But the nice thing is he's also the fourth weapon for the defenses to focus on. You know, they're trying to get. So that's where the downfield and the touchdowns, they can come for here. Let me, let me ask you this, Mike, as we move on.

46:14 ↗

If you ended up with Jared Cook. Kick. Sorry, Kuk. Would you be comfortable starting him for 16 weeks? Because to me, that's where this equation becomes interesting. Sure. If I get him in the 11th round and I don't have to think about my tight-in position versus taking the shot, maybe like I talked about the Herndon and Jarwin double stack or Joe New and Jarwin or something. Well, certainly, I mean, if he hits, then...

46:43 ↗

Yeah, you're playing him every week. But here's the thing with Jared Cook when you're drafting him. Week one, he goes out and he has a bus game. You're like, ah. That's the Jared Cook. It's fine. Jared Cook. Week two, he comes out. He hurts your team again. Now what are you doing? That's why I was asking you. You're not comfortable starting him 16, locking him in for 16. Well, I'm just, I'm laying out the scenario of if he hits, if he misses on those first two weeks.

47:09 ↗

it's going to be really hard not to make a waiver move to put him in. And then he can go off on week three. You're like, oh, man, I got to get back on it. And then you're just chasing the dragon over and over and it becomes a different. Versus just playing the matchups. Because if you draft Blake Jarwin or Chris Herndon and they stink week one, you have no problem just going, oh, this guy's got a good matchup in week two. I'm going to play him. I will wonder how many weeks, Mike, we'll give Blake Jarwin before. 16.

47:39 ↗

You're going to give him 16. Yeah. Mike Gisicki at 7, Tyler Higbee at 8. We've talked a lot about Tyler Higby on the show. Gisicki, his situation is becoming a little bit clearer just with the fact that it seems like we have the targets we're expecting in Miami. We might not have the quarterback we're expecting. But Gisiki is a late round tight-in that we all have ranked much higher than 80P. He's being drafted as the tight-in 15.

48:07 ↗

That means he's basically free in your draft. Last year he ended as the tight end 11. And he didn't really break out until like week nine on. DeVante Parker, Mike Gassicki, Preston Williams. That's the offense right now. Yeah. The problem is that during the beginning of last year, that was the offense and Gassiki wasn't good. But then the offense became Devante Parker, Mike Gassiki, because Preston Williams went out. And all of a sudden, Mike Gisicki.

48:35 ↗

was great. That being said, he was also, he's young for a tight end. It takes a couple of years for these guys to break out. He has the athletic profile of Saquan Barclay, as in he's a hundredth percentile athlete, just incredible. I never really loved his film. He's not a guy that I've watched play football and been like, that dude's a great football player. Well, apparently he broke zero tackles on 51 receptions, which, see? Like, what was happening?

49:01 ↗

What has happened? How are he stronger than everyone? He's a superhuman that I think he's playing it safe. Like, what if he's actually a superhero? He's like, I can't show everything.

49:10 ↗

They should have tackled me here. Do you think that's what's happening? Do you normally rank your superhero around eight at the tight-in position? Well, when they're not going to show what they've got, yeah. He's afraid. Yeah, he doesn't want to get caught. He's dashed in the Incredibles. He's a bashful hero. You know, the reality is I'm not like, we all have him at eight. I think the targets will come. I'm not inspired by Mike Gassicki. I am fine, leaving a draft.

49:36 ↗

You're not going to write a poem or anything like that? With my, no, I don't think so, with my last round pick. And what's ironic is, you know, the ceiling for him, I just, I don't think it's, like, whose ceiling is higher if they both hit, Herndon or Gassiki? Genuinely, I'm curious. I think it's probably hernded. I mean, but let's use the Blake Jarwin ometer. Gisicki, Mike, is basically free. I mean, you've drafted Jarwin late, late in drafts. Are you?

50:04 ↗

You're taking Gassiki ahead of him? If he's sitting there? Right now, I am not. I will take Jarwin over Gisikki. So you think the upside of Jarwin's higher than Gisikis as well as turned into? Yeah, because of touchdowns. Okay. So when you get down into this part of the tight-in rankings, you start to... Pick the guy you like. Yes, Fookland, that is the takeaway here. Once you are to this range...

50:32 ↗

Do not get fooled by the rankings like this guy's four spots higher. These guys are all in this gigantic group of could be's. Take a look at the outlook you think I want a piece of this offense or I want a piece of this talented athlete or whatever matters to you and pick that guy because the ranking doesn't matter at this point. So let's talk about Tyler Couldby. Tyler Couldby is sitting here at 8th. Ended the year on fire.

51:00 ↗

Mike, are you passing on Higby in the eighth round because of that price for those guys that you mentioned earlier? I mean, the Higby, so Tyler Higby, Evan Ingram, Blake Jarwin, that it is a difficult decision when I'm in drafts and it's a one by one case. I do believe in all three of those players. I believe in Tyler Higby, the transition of the offense where everything started to run through Higby. I'm not expecting it.

51:30 ↗

to turn into that all season long, or I would have Tyler Higby ranked as a top three tight end. I mean, but when he was given the opportunity, he was able to do things that very little tight ends in history have been able to do. Like he was, since 2000, he's the fourth tight end. Like miniature tight ends? He is the fourth tight end to rattle off four straight 100-yard games ever. Like,

51:57 ↗

That doesn't happen. And I know you can say, well, the schedule lined up. Okay, great. Everything lined up. It certainly has lined up for other players before, and they didn't rip off four straight games of 100 yards at the tight end position. The player has the ability. They've just never asked him to do it. And they did, and he came through, and the team was much better. The offense was much better. So I do believe in Higby. If you want to hear my case against Tyler Higby, go listen to the Fire and Ice episode. Hint, he was my ice.

52:27 ↗

player in that one. Mike has on the highest. And you can see all of our tight-end rankings on the website, the fantasy footballers.com. And in the ultimate draft kit, you'll see the projections that we have. In the ultimate draft kit, you'll also get the blurb right up. So it'll give you a little bit more context because the ranking matters less for these tight ends than kind of the outlook. Now, Evan Ingram comes in at number nine, but Jason, it's your, it's your, it's your fault. It's your fault because you have them significantly lower. Mike and I are both have them at seven.

52:55 ↗

You have him way lower. Tell us briefly why you're out on Evan Ingram this season. Look, Evan Ingram, when he's been on the field, has produced. He's been a quality fantasy option. I'm not out to the point where I wouldn't want him on one of my teams, but my projections assume he's going to do what he's always done, which is not be out on the field. He...

53:18 ↗

has been more of an injury risk than almost anybody's never really played a full season. And if you look into the details and the context of when he's had big games, it's ironic because when he's been healthy, a lot of his teammates have not. He's, he was the guy when, you know, Odell Beckham was gone for a stretch of games or when Sequin was gone. You know, it's, it's one of those things where I think when you have the three wide receivers that nobody knows who.

53:46 ↗

How to rank him, you know, you've got Shepard, you got Tate, you've got Darius Slayton, you got Sequin, and Evan Ingram. If everybody's healthy on the field, I don't think Evan Ingram is going to be the star he's been when he's been healthy, and that's if he's healthy. So I just have a more pessimistic outlook. He's obviously a talented player who on a per game basis while playing has been pretty productive. So if he drops to a good value...

54:11 ↗

I don't hate taking him and just hoping for health, but right now he's in the seventh round. And in the seventh round, I'm not willing to go in personally. All right. Hunter Henry comes in at 10, which feels like somehow the worst spot to land in a set of tight end rankings because it just feels very ho-hum.

54:36 ↗

If you got the number 10 tight end every week, you are losing at the position. Yes. So outside of the top 10, by way of our projections, Jason's kind of favorite guy, looks like Jonas Smith, because he has him at 7. Mine is Chris Herndon, who I have at 11, so I have them inside that top 12. And Mike's is Blake Jarwin, who he has at tight in number 9.

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