Dynasty Trade Targets + Rookie Sleepers, Salty Naps - Fantasy Football Podcast for 5/11

They could get out of his contract rather easily after this season. But I think we all, like right now, Andy, he's my running back four. So we're projecting an amazing season for him, much more pass catching than he's had in the past. It's not just Kareem Hunt that's gone. Dearness Johnson has left as well. And I want to remind people this, he had his career high in rushing yards last year. He was awesome. 1525 yards rushing. And, um, He's going to have an end zone opportunity. So I actually think he's a two-year championship window acquisition for a team that is looking to close. I look at that with Josh Jacobs right now. If you are trying to close the gap and get your title before you get out, I think Jacobs and Chub are both in that category. Yeah, he's an incredible player. We have five years of Nicholas Chubb.

And he has rushed for at least five yards of carry every single year. He's the best runner. That's outrageous production. And I think you're right, Andy, it's what do you believe about the Cleveland Browns and Deshawn Watson? Because last year, Nick Chubb scored 12 rushing touchdowns. 12 on the season. That's a fantastic number. Deshaun Watson came in week 13. And from week 13 through the end of the year, Nick Chubb was on pace for a 17-game pace of zero rushing touchdowns. Which just shows you how high you could have finished last year. Had they been competent? I mean, he's never had a season at the NFL level. Because the yardage was fewer than eight touchdowns in a season. Like yardage was still there. He was still on pace for almost 1,400 rushing yards in the Deshaun Watson stretch. But the fact that he scored no rushing touchdowns, that burns. Yeah, no. I think it also means it's a buying opportunity because that.

Fear can be put into somebody else and you might be able to acquire him. So, uh, Jason, who's your trade four candidate? My trade four candidate in a dynasty league is jk two legs Dobbins. JK2L. JK. 2L. Uh, he's back. And he's got both of his legs this time in the sequel. Now, have you confirmed that? I have confirmed that. Have you been watching him walking like to a movie theater or anything like that? Is he hopping? He's not doing circles. He's not running in a circle anymore because one leg is so superior and stronger. We've got a lot of data. We've talked about it in other shows about how a player that's coming back from a knee injury, they usually, especially when it is a bigger surgery like what J.K. Dobbins had.

It's not year one that they're back, that they're good. But the following season after that, they're back to what they were before they left. And J.K. Dobbins, as a rookie, showed flashes of brilliance. He was supposed to be great. And we've seen those flashes, even last year in his first year back from the knee injury. He had another injury in the middle of the years. It was a really difficult season for him. But those final four games that he was able to put together. Those numbers are insane. They're insane. I mean, it would. Just to give you an example, that would be a pace of 1,600 yards. He was averaging 99.3 yards per game during that stretch. He is a really good player. I am buying into the Baltimore Ravens offense in major ways. I think Tom Munkin coming in is going to be good. They did not add to this running back room. It's J.K. Dobbins. It's Gus Edwards. There's a 24-year-old running back that I believe he's coming up. He's playing on a contract year.

I think he's going to get another contract because he's young. He doesn't have a lot of wear and tear on him. Obviously, he should be completely healed from his injury. And there are situations in the NFL where it is the mid-level running back who actually goes on to get another contract, a la Miles Sanders. Right? Zeke is still out there waiting to get a contract because he wants to get paid. You know, he's a he's a superstar. He's been a, you know, it's J.K. Dobbins, who a team's going to go to target next year and say, hey, we can get him for a really reasonable contract. I think he's an exceptional running back. I believe in the Baltimore Ravens right now. And he hasn't done much in his career. So I don't think he's going to cost you an arm and a leg. I see. A weak leg. Let me ask you two questions about J.K. Dobbins.

Because when I was running up against his Baltimore offense, I know you've been very vocal. You believe that the addition of the new receiver situation for Lamar Jackson, it's significant, right? Beckham, Save Flowers, Rashah Bateman, Healthy, the addition of Todd Monkin as your offensive coordinator. You've talked a lot about pass heavy. Looking back at like kind of the history of J.K. Dobbins, it's been efficiency, right? Not quantity. Do you think that this is a... the same storyline for Jacob Dobbins, where you're talking, you know, I don't know, I think as a rookie, he was in the almost six a carry, but it was 11 to 13 carries a game. Do you see his volume being? The volume's going to be great. This is a two-man timeshare between him and Gus Edwards. Well, three-way if you count Lamar.

Sure, but, you know, looking last year, that affermention stretch, he was basically on pace for about 242 rushing attempts. So I do think he has enough volume in the ground game. Well, they didn't have any of those receivers last year, though. That was kind of my point. I was saying you were saying they're going to throw for 6,000 yards or whatever. I believe that the whole of the offense will be so much better. The fact that you can't stack the box because you do have to guard wide receivers, the fact that you have more touchdown opportunities at the goal line because you can move the ball. There's no way that the Baltimore offense next year is not vastly superior to what it was this last year with a hodgepodge of wide receivers, no Lamar Jackson. And so...

Lanes are going to be open for J.K. Dobbins, so I don't see the volume as an issue at all. What kind of older running back would you move to pick up J.K. Dobbins? If you're doing that running back trade situation, are you, is it, I mean, I think you do Dalvin Cook because I don't think there's a lot of Dalvin Cook confidence right now. But, you know, are you trading Derek Henry in a dynasty league for J.K. Dobbins? I would do that. J.K. Plus. Yeah, you would want more just because of the age gap there. I don't think you're going to get more from the Derek Henry manager. Why would the Derek Henry manager? No, no. If I'm the Derek Henry manager, I'm getting J.K. Dobbins plus something. That is kind of the type of trade we've been talking about. You want to trade a great running back for a young running back plus, you know, some assets. So we'll talk about him in a minute.

I would include him in a deal, but it's got to be significantly. Aaron Jones. If you look at the value, oh, Aaron Jones for sure. If you look at the perceived value of Sequin, it's enormous. If you look at the perceived value of J.K. Dobbins, it's pequito. Nobody's in love with J.K. Dobbins. That's why he's a trade for candidate because I don't think you should have to give up too, too much. Mike, you have a trade for candidate that... It's risky. Okay. I like... Yeah, I mean, it's one that I look at and I go, I don't know. Yes, I admit that this is risky, but Andy, what you were saying about the trades of the dynasty trades on paper are going to feel risky either way. Like maybe I won, maybe I gave up a little bit, but I got the player that I wanted to get. But it's about projecting into the future. It's about trying to take advantage of a value right now that you think can go up drastically.

And my trade for candidate, it's Alexander Madison running back of the Minnesota Vikings, current backup running back for the Minnesota Vikings. However, he did just get a brand new contract, which is it's not a nothing contract. They are financially invested into Madison. So trading for him, no matter what, you have a guy who's securing his job and is going to be a part of the team's future. But there is the chance with all the rumors floating around. There's a chance that come June, Dalvin Cook is traded. There's a chance that it may not be in June. Like it might be a little bit later in the actual training camp time. Someone loses a running back and they go and they trade for Dalvin Cook. But there's been just so much noise out of Minnesota. Really over the last season of saying looking forward, we're probably not going to have Dalvin Cook on this team or they're going to have to.

Davao Cook's going to have to take a lower salary, which that's up to Davao Cook if he wants to do. Zeke clearly did not want to do that, and the Dallas Cowboys were forced to move on from him. But the point being, if you trade for Alexander Madison right now, as opposed to you wait until June. The second that that news hits the wire, you get your sleeper alert. Dalvo Cook has been traded, and Alexander Madison is the starting running back for the Minnesota Vikings in which eight career games, when Dalvin was out, we're talking 15 plus opportunities. You're talking an average of nearly 17 fantasy points per game. He has been very, very capable in that high-powered offense to be a stud for fantasy football.

If you trade for him in June, you're paying way, way, way more because if you do it right now, you are taking on the risk that Davao Cook isn't actually traded. Yeah, and there's a perfect trade opportunity. It's a second round pick. Because there's risk for both sides. Yes. Your second round pick, what's the percentage that that's going to hit? You know, it's probably. If I got, do you use the second round pick on Dwayne McBride? If you do that trade? Who would you rather have Madison or Dwayne McBride? I would rather have Madison. Yeah, I mean, easily, I'd rather have Madison. Like, Mick Bride's a seventh round pick. He may not even be third on the depth chart behind Ty Chandler. The $7 million deal that gave Alexander Madison is almost fully guaranteed. It's like $6.5 million guaranteed over the next two years. I think even more guaranteed next season. How much was the most deal in Miami? Do you remember that one? I think that was like a million. I'll look it up. No, no, no. He signed a two-year deal, I thought, for like around that amount of money.

I will pull it up. I'm only saying that because I was thinking about three year 8.7 million. Is that a couple years ago? Yeah, I'm just talking about the most recent Mostert Miami deal. I just remember that number. Two year 5.6 million. Okay. So right now for 2023, Mostert is guaranteed $900,000. Well, I was talking about the deal because Madison's money and Moster's money were very similar. So Madison was two years seven million versus two year five point six. But a year later, you know, when the cap goes up. So I think those are similar types of commitments. Right. But Madison got almost all of it guaranteed. Moster was only two million guaranteed. Yeah. So it is, it is risky. It is trying to steal future value. And you.

Like Dalvin Cook could still be on this team. And if Dalvin Cook is on the Minnesota Vikings, he's the guy. I'm not saying Madison got the contract so he's taken over. No, Daval Cook is still good. But there's a financial world in the business of football that says Dalvin Cook may not be on this team. And if that happens, Madison is the primary guy because there's no one else on the debt card who can challenge that. And that's another thing I think of the Madison decision making is. Do you believe that a team like Minnesota who was a pretty good football team has a division that they can win? Are they willing to go into this season with only Madison? I believe so. Ty Chandler's unproven. McBride's a late round pick. My only worry would be if that happened that they would add somebody else. But Madison's been good. If they do add someone else, it has to be cost efficient because you're not going to clear.

Dalvin's money. You're not going to clear. Delvin's money. Eat his dead cap. And then be like, hey, Zeke, we're going to give you $5 million a year. To me, it's more like the Deonti Foreman situation in Chicago. We're like they didn't have enough confidence in Calaisal Herbert to be the only guy. So Foreman was brought in there to contribute. Sure. Do you, Jason, do you want to go ahead with your tradeaway candidate since I mentioned his name earlier? Yeah. Yeah. If I had Sequin Barkley, I am 100% trying to capitalize and trade him. And this is not an anti-Saquin take.

Sequin should be great this year. Sequin's value is really, really high. He's still seen as this young, super athletic running back, who is a workhorse back, and it is going to be awesome this year. He's a first round draft pick or, you know, maybe at the one-two turn for this season, and he's not aged out. He's, you know, very, very desired in Dynasty Leagues, and that is why you want to trade him now because he's on the franchise tag. His offer, his long-term offer was rescinded by the Giants. They said, yeah, we're just going to play this year out. Next year, when he goes to get a contract, kind of like what I was saying about Zeke's still out there looking for a contract while Miles Sanders goes and gets it. I think J.K. Dobbins gets a contract while Saquan is trying to find out who's going to pay him Saquan-level money. And it just might be no one because he's a running back. And he'll be 27 years old and he'll find a spot.

But this is where you can, I believe, trade for, you could trade him for a younger, longer window running back who's still very good. You know, someone like a Travis E.T.N plus something. Because Sequin is beloved in the dynasty community. And there's, you know, there's a lot of running backs out there that. Miles Sanders. Yeah. Honestly, if you get Miles Sanders. Plus enough, absolutely. That's capitalizing on Saquan's name. I feel like that would be a big story in a league if that trade got done. Yeah, I mean, there's a number of younger window running backs that I think you could go out and target and try to turn Saquan into. And, you know, this is where I do it because we don't know what team he's going to play for next year. I would be surprised if it's the Giants. And so.

get out while he has high value. Right now I'm looking at like Dynasty, average Dynasty startup rankings and he's the running back five. This isn't someone that is not like trying to trade Derek Henry right now. Whereas people are like, dude, this is a Dynasty League. I don't want Derek Henry. Everyone wants Sequin. They want a young stud running back and they will pay up for him. Now would my current age of my dynasty team would love Derek Henry. Derek Rainier, we could come in and be the young buck. Now, looking cross-positionally and rookies, Jay, let's say your level of trading Sequin, would you be willing to take something like, let's go picks that turned into Jordan Addison and it's hard to find like a secondary running back. Would you do it for Addison and A-Chane?

That was the name I was going to bring up. Yeah, I think Addison and A-Chane. I think that's really good value, yeah. Okay. I'll do that. The name I'll bring up is what I think is going to be a dynasty tier adjustment that you're going to get ahead of. So when I say tradeaway, it's not that this player isn't going to be very productive. It's that I think that he will adjust long-term in dynasty players' minds, and it's Jonathan Taylor. Jonathan Taylor is in the final year of a rookie deal. So his future in Indianapolis is up in the air at a minimum. You have new head coach, new quarterback. You got a quarterback that runs the ball a ton and Anthony Richardson who is really, you know, he's a home run shot for this franchise. And maybe it works out, maybe it doesn't. I think we saw a massive difference in Jonathan Taylor's success when you went away from what I think was a competent offense at times with Matt Ryan the year before to.

the different, who did they put out there? They put out Foles for a week, but who was the other quarterback who I'm forgetting? Sam Ellen Gajer. Sam Ellen Gajer. Yeah, I mean, you really, if you don't have some confidence in the offense, I think the tier change for Jonathan Taylor, where he's looked at as a perennial top three dynasty pick, I think it's going to become something where you look at him more like a top 10. And so if you can get top three value, I think this is the moment that you can go. and shoot your shot on another player at the running back position and something for Jonathan Taylor. So I just don't have them ranked as high as I have in the past. Yeah, when I saw this name, I really didn't like it. I want to disagree with you. He is a young stud guy that I am fully confident will sign a long-term extension with the Colts this season. You know, this coming off season.

Well, yeah, I mean, I would take Brees Hall over Jonathan Taylor. But what I'm saying here is when I didn't like it, I went back and I looked at my redraft rankings because I love Jonathan Taylor. I think he's going to get back to his form. But back to his form with an Anthony Richardson level offense that probably is not going to check the ball down quite as much because he's mobile. He's active. He's going to be running. He's going to be scrambling. There aren't going to be. Yeah, Philip Rivers check the ball down a hundred times. Or Matt Ryan.

Jonathan Taylor is around. I've got about seven teams left to finish statting, which includes Sequin Barclay and Josh Jacobs and Brees Hall that could go ahead of him. It looks like Jonathan Taylor is going to be near my running back nine or ten for redraft. And so if that's this season, he's already kind of in that tier three player. If you could get a hall of halls, I am okay. exploring that. But I do think you could still have a year or two of greatness and then trade him. So like my window for him would probably be at least next year or the year next to it. But if someone's willing to pay up. Yeah, I just think that he was so incredible for that one season, that those kind of years kind of get burned in your mind for many seasons. And so if you can sell somebody on that kind of a promise, a return to glory after the injury year.

You can get that guy on your team. I know I traded for Jonathan Taylor sometime last year 100% because of that. It was like, oh my gosh, what if he is that guy? As soon as he's healthy, he'll be that guy. And so that can be a valuable thing. He is also super good. Oh, it could be a backfire for sure. He is the Hulk. If their offense is great under Sykin and Richardson, that could be a big mistake. But traditionally, we see a history of. you know, the ceiling being lower for running backs when their quarterback is an elite rushing quarterback. Yes. And so what did he have 20 something? Do you have 20 touchdowns two years ago? I know it was at least 18 rushing rushing. Like it was ridiculous. Yeah. I mean, I think he was right around 20. So maybe that ceiling doesn't exist with a rushing quarterback that's going to be a threat on the goal line. Yeah, it was 18, 18 rushing touchdown. Two receiving. So, okay. All right. I will jump in here. My trade away. I don't think it says.

It's not as spicy as trying to trade Sequin or Jonathan Taylor. It's trading away an old running back. It's Aaron Jones of the Green Bay Packers, who is 28 and a half years old. He still has two years left on his contract. They restructured a little... The restructuring was a little strange, in my opinion, how they went about it. Because he's on the team this year. And then in 2024, his cap hit would be $17 million, but his dead cap is... is 12.3. So that will be a, that'll be quite the predicament for the Green Bay Packers to make the decision of do you give a 30 year old running back almost 7% of your cap? Or do you eat 12 in dead cap or even the possibility of trading him away? And it's, to me, it's the age when these things fall off for these running backs. It happens rapidly. It hasn't happened yet. Aaron Jones is still great.

But then you have this, you don't have Aaron Rogers anymore. This is Jordan Love will be leading the team. I think the Green Bay Packers kind of showed their hand a little bit of their confidence level in Jordan Love that they didn't give him the fifth year option. They gave him him this, what was called an extension, even though it was, in fact, a pay cut to, so that the Green Bay Packers can play him this year. If things don't work out and he stinks, they can move on and they don't have to worry about all that money for next year of the injury guarantee of the fifth year option. But Aaron Jones, we don't know what the offense is going to look like. So that's a little bit of a variable. And there are teams out there. There are contending teams that can take Aaron Jones and it will help them get over the top. So he still has a ton of trade value. But I think that that trade value will.

evaporate. If Aaron Jones has a less than great year, less than great season this year, you're going to find yourself in a really bad situation. I'll be very old at that point. I'm saying if you have a decline at all in the statistics this year and his age, your ability to trade Aaron Jones for a first round pick or first round plus or young player. It will be gone. Oh, the bag will be held. Yes. Yes, it will. And the contract extension, they gave him the two-year extension, I believe that it is so that they can release him next year, save some money. They'll have to take the cap hit. But my presumption right now is that he'll play this year and probably be done or be looking for a team. For the Packers. Yeah. For the Packers. Yeah, it'll be.

a reset of values in Green Bay too with Jordan Love at quarterback after this season for better or for worse you're going to have a better picture of what to expect because look nobody knows what Jordan Love is going to be they don't we saw nothing from Jordan Love last year very few snaps and it's it'll be just overall in Green Bay it's going to be very interesting to watch what's the identity of that office yeah what is what's the identity what do they you know we still have obviously we have a whole season of football but Dynasty you're trying to at least project a couple years ahead too. But if Aaron Jones is gone, AJ Dylan is on the last year of his contract. Yeah, he doesn't seem like the future there. For AJ Dylan? Yeah. He may or, like I think Dylan will get, just like Dobbins. I think Dylan will get a contract from somebody that'll be maybe not what Miles Sanders got this year, but more like what David Montgomery that got this year. I think that AJ Dylan can get a contract in that range. I think I'll get a committee contract. Yeah.

I don't see bright days ahead. It wasn't a good year for AJ Dillon. I think he was 3.9 of carry last year. Yeah, when I was looking at those numbers, I was a little bit like, man, he's flashed at times, but he did just 4.1. Was he? Yeah. He was a 4.1 that looked like 3.9 to me. That's a fair. Look, for what we were hoping for, it was. He was a little letdown. Yes. Trains look like they're moving slowly. but they are not. He's right. He's a big boy. All right. I think that's it. We got a giveaway. Justin Jefferson signed Jersey Footcline giveaway.com. Go check that out. Jason's got a nap to get to. And we will be back with another show and a big, juicy announcement you do not want to miss. It's a mega-sized announcement, everybody. We'll see you next week. Goodbye. You for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast.

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