Fantasy Football - Unsolved Mysteries + Dangerous Picks - Podcast for 7/29

this opportunity there. I mean, as a rookie, 73 for 6.73 and then the regression last year, I... He did not look good on the field last year. And so you want to... The only excuse for me is he was injured. But then when the report comes out literally today that he's currently dealing with knee-sorness... Well, we know what the problem is. Right. And if the problem's still there, it's hard for me to buy in. I feel like I'm just out on the bills. If Dalton Kincaid... six touchdowns his rookie season and kept all the numbers the same. That's like a top seven, top six time. His rookie year? Yeah. Which was 73 for 670. So at least. That's where you're calling it. He's doing as Kyle Pittsing, where he comes out and as a rookie shows enough flashes, gets enough yards, looks like he should really level up. Kincaid could score six to eight times. That could happen. And if that happens, you've got a breakout. But I don't think any of us are buying into any of this happening. No, not those two guys. There's, I've been, you know, over here.

contemplating can Josh Palmer do it of like he got 18 million guaranteed to come over and you know Mac Hollins that's what I was trying to think of the Mac Hollins production if it if that's all Josh Palmer gets then it won't be anything but a a occasional weekly you hit on a spot start but I think I'm with I kind of side with Jason of I'm out on the bills anyone taking the steps so are you are you out of on these guys that they're 80p. I am fine. Each of those guys will have a handful of even Khalil Shakir. There'll be a handful of weeks where like, oh man, Shakir really was the reason I won this. I do not want any of these bills that is going to be a couple weeks like out of the year. Like Mac Hollins had three amazing.

weeks last season. He was the wide receiver 80 on the season. That's a perfect summary. Like the Mac Holland situation, no, but you can't start these things. No, so that they want to run. That's why at ADP personally, I'm fine taking Keon Coleman. He's going into year two. You know, he was drafted to be the future replacement of the big loss of Stefan Diggs. Not necessarily same archetype player, but like that they knew they needed a really special wide, wide receiver. And I can see a world. where he becomes that red zone target. And if you're going to have an every week start, I want to know, okay, he is that guy or two, three weeks in. I go, no, he didn't do it. And I can move on and cut him. The other hard part is the bills had tremendous success with the recipe of not giving us anything good for fantasy. Yeah, James Cook had 16-600 touchdowns. 1600 touchdowns? He did. So to me, that one seems like an unsolvable mystery.

in a lot of ways i feel like we solved it yeah yeah okay it's like the body is right there that it's dead like the mystery's been solved is that with the yeah most of the time most of the time the unsolved mysteries are are they alive are they dead we don't know oh i didn't know that yeah well as i'm establishing that and now it's like up found the body yep wait are they alive or are they but there's also a chalk out no no there was two separate things yeah i said the chalk outline thing yeah it's a chalk outline that's after the body

He's found the body, poked it with a stick, it didn't move. Yeah. So they're not just like hypothetically drawing a chalk body. No, like this is where it could have been. And this, his arm would have been like this probably. And then he just pops out of the store. Are we done with the chalk outlines? Did they do that anymore? Huh. I think we have photographs now, right? Yeah, I think a photograph might have replaced that. Sounds wise. Yeah, it seems like we... It's... You know, I've never... How... What are they doing for that? About the chalk outline. Are they... You know, like when you trace something, you're trying to get as close as possible. Are they... That's got to be gross, man. Like, are these clothes getting chalked on? I don't think you care. I mean, you're probably... You're hopefully... You're gloved up, right? You're not chalking gloveless. I think we should move on. All right. Number four here.

As we count it down. So we had number five, the bill situation. Number four. Well, drafting quarterbacks early matter in 2025. Oh, man. So this was the way, here's the cycle of fantasy football. More than a decade ago, everybody drafted elite quarterbacks early. That was what people did. They drafted all the quarterbacks. They drafted all of them. Yeah, Rogers, Breeze, Manning, Brady, Cam Newton, that era. Then late round quarterbacks became in vogue, and we were big proponents of that because that was a huge advantage. You had breakout seasons for like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes and Jaden Daniels. Last year was one and hurts. So it has worked very, very well. All the guys who are being drafted early this year. Correct. Correct. So we've also gotten a lot better as a fantasy football community as drafters.

of identifying high-value quarterbacks, the cheat code that is rushing quarterback ability. And since 2020, seven of the eight quarterbacks drafted in the first two rounds have actually met or exceeded expectations. So they've been good bets. So if you've gone, again, that's first two rounds. But they've delivered. Like if you lean in on the major talent, they have mostly delivered. I think Mahomes is the one that let you down. Mahomes last year, yeah. So what do you think? Well, drafting quarterbacks early matter in 2025. It comes at a cost. You are sacrificing a running back wide receiver, a multiple start position. That is what it comes down to is who is the player and what is the cost. So for instance, Josh Allen right now is being drafted. I think he is, he's the first quarterback off the board. So you're getting him in the late second. And if you compare the players that you're.

taking that sacrifice for, you know, you could grab Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, or a Trey McBride. I'm, or Josh Allen. I'm confident in all four of those guys. I think, I think, you know, everybody that's going right there, there's very few warts on them. You expect them to be great. At that point, I'm more hesitant to draft the quarterback. If personally... The top five? Not necessarily the top five, but right there. Like the top quarterback, Josh Allen, to me is like, that's dangerous when you are sacrificing really good other fantasy options at running back wide receiver or tight end. Whereas like if you take a look at, I mean, who's the lowest in the top five? Burrow, 407. So Burrow is sandwiched right now between Rushy Rice, who I'm sure his 80 people will lower and Alvin Camara. Like those are huge question marks.

I'm not confident that either one of those go right. I am confident Joe Burrow has a very good season. So that's where I think, and I will say Jalen Hertz is right. He's not far off from Joe Burrow. I personally like Jalen Hertz the most. I do think that when you go in on the early quarterbacks, it's about confidence. It's about like, I am super confident in this player. Am I not confident in the other positions around him? Well, my confidence is higher in Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. but they're the higher costs. So that makes it more difficult. Yeah. And they can still, the hard part about the early quarterback is like Josh Allen can still pay off. Josh Allen can still be the quarterback two or whatever. It's just, but you, when it really pays off is when you get Lamar's last year where Lamar Jackson is, you know, multiple points per game.

ahead of the quarterback four and quarterback five. There is a drastic difference. It's not just they scored more points. They had a slightly higher points per game. You have to have to have to have to have to have a little bit of a magical season. And then it's also comparing it to, you know, taking shots on late round quarterbacks, which this year, you know, trying to implement a guy who's going to run a decent amount looking at the guys who are in the double-digit rounds. You know, we have Justin Fields is there. And then, like, I guess you go Drake May and Caleb Williams would be the other two who are going to give you, like what is Caleb going to give you? Like, three, three, four hundred yards on the ground. And where do you got Drake May going, Jay? Like rushing yardage wise. I'll look it up. I think it's far more than that. I think he's closer to, I want to say, four or five hundred. Like, Caleb, I don't know if I'm going to call him.

A rushing quarterback with that. None of those guys. I mean, those guys could be. I've got them over 500. Those guys could all be not starters after one week. Yes, absolutely. And what I think is lost in this discussion that is nuanced that we haven't said before is yes, it's great to find that superior win your league season. But predicting the viability of that pick going right, you're guaranteed with Alan Jackson, Daniels, Hertz, Burrow. Those picks, they don't have to be the number one. to deliver on the ADP. You just saw the numbers, right? It's like nine out of the last 10, drafted in the top two rounds delivered on ADP. You don't necessarily, like it's always a gamble when you take a pick, but it's not a gamble with those guys. Barring injury, they're not gambles. It's not. They are a guaranteed production, even if that production is variable within the top five or six. So that is, I think that is true, but needs a little bit more context. Because if you're just saying that they return on value,

they score what at this ADP should be scored or more. That's great. But at the same time, when you do that in the second round, what you're sacrificing there is, you know, at the other positions is a lot more than what you're sacrificing. Like if you beat your ADP in the fifth round and, you know, and Joe Burrow comes through, what is the other wide receiver or running back going to do that you, that you are sacrificing there? So at the end of the year, your total fantasy points on your roster, not just did your quarterback end up a worthy pick, but did you build the right roster? Well, my point is exactly that, and I understand if that player performs. I'm saying the bust potential of players in general is not there for those quarterbacks. I agree. But if you take a player that is a running back that you really love, I mean, look, look who you're taking Josh Allen over right now. It's going to be like Jonathan Taylor.

Yeah, I mean, that's a, I mean, that is a, if Jonathan Taylor delivers a good season, that's a bad pick. You should take a lower quarterback. That's exactly. But you also like, if you look at the top 20, 30 picks and you look at who busts, outside of injury, just like disappointing seasons, it's not going to be Josh Allen. Even including. It's not going to be the MVP. Even including injury. If including injury, it's usually not the quarterback. So like. Sometimes people bust because of injury and that sucks and you can't predict it. But Josh Allen is a, I mean, he started week 17 this last year as a, what do you call that, like an honorary start? Yeah, yeah. Just to keep his start streak alive because he doesn't, he doesn't miss time. Quarterbacks are a little bit safer in that, not that quarterbacks don't get injured, but they are a little bit safer. Last year we had Josh, this was the ADP, Josh Allen.

And then after him, he went, Devante Adams, Chris Olavay, A-chan, Josh Jacobs, Travis, Kelsey, Brayn, Ayuk. So those would have been your opportunity cost players at ADP, which made... Most of that's pretty good. Josh Allen would have been the... Yeah, yeah, A-chan, I guess, would be the hit. And I yuk, oh, hit, yeah, yeah. It went, I mean, Josh Jacobs, I know he gave you the end of the year, but it wasn't the entirety of the year. You're talking about Josh Jacobs? Yeah. He would crush last year. Yes. I said really especially at the end of the year. Gotcha. The first half, it was good, but it was like Jacobs won your league in the second half. So let's just have a little fun here, all right? A little fun. I'm going to play game. I'm going to give you the current today's ADP of the top five quarterback and the next running back you're sacrificing. I'm not going to pick. It's just what the ADP says. So would you rather, so it's Josh Allen or Jonathan Taylor.

You're sacrificing Jonathan Taylor to get Josh Allen or you are Lamar Jackson or Kyron Williams. So you're sacrificing Kyron Williams to get Lamar Jackson or Jaden Daniels and you're sacrificing Breece Hall. That sounds good. So far that's the winner. That sounds good. Jalen Hertz and you're sacrificing Omari and Hampton. That's fine. Yeah, that's not too bad. Or Joe Burrow and you're sacrificing Alvin Camara. When you put all of those. I like the Burrow and the Daniels ones. Yeah, when you put all those together, that's where if every single one of them end up in the top five return on their ADP, Josh Allen's probably not your best pick at quarterback. No, it probably isn't. And it's probably not. If we saw Josh Allen differently than we saw Lamar Jackson and Daniels from an outcome perspective, it might be. But we don't see it that way. They're in the same tier. Like to me, Alan Jackson.

Daniels and Hertz. Agreed. I have a separation there, a slight separation with Burrow. I have a mental separation there. I don't have a statistical one. So I literally just moved Joe Burrow down in my stats because I was, he's just so high. Joe Burrow is primed for potential disappointment at that price. Yeah, because he doesn't run. Because he doesn't run. And it's not a guarantee he throws the touchdowns. It's just not. Yeah. We think it is. It's not. um give me jane daniels yeah yeah at least with those examples for sure all right we'll take another break jump into some more mysteries all right the uh the next one up who slash what i like the slash what is dj more is a man i will not stand for this he's a man i i think the dj more is such a strange and interesting

situation for fantasy players because from a talent perspective I think we would all agree he's a top 15 wide receiver talent in football but when you look at what he's done since 2018 which is not a small amount of seasons that 2023 wide receiver 6 overall finish stands out very clearly as the outlier season career high in touchdowns that year career high in yards by over 200 it was a magical season he was also not a part of a wide receiver room as robust, or I guess I just say a team with weapons as robust as the bears have right now with Odunzei, Burden, Colston Loveland, the backfield. You know, last year he's right back to where he kind of always finishes, which was the wide receiver 17. He's got finishes before the wide receiver 6 year of 22, 19, 22, 18. It was, he was the Terry McLaren. That's the funny thing. It's like, Terry McLaren, we're calling for the regression because the touchdowns were out of whack.

McLaren had his year last year that DJ Moore had the year before. But, you know, betting on talent has always been a very good prescription for fantasy. You know, the superior talent kind of, it has a high floor, right? Like even if DJ Moore doesn't give you a monstrous season, it's a high floor. Where are you guys at with him right now? He's been a top 24 wide receiver, but it's been barely. Yeah, I mean, he's barely been a top 24 wide receiver. That is true. However, he's being drafted as a back, you know, I think he's the wider receiver 21, somewhere around there. That seems like his floor. That seems like his floor. And you bring in a better coordinator. I mean, his, his issue has always been consistency. You know, he has big boom games. And then like, you know, last year as a top 24 wide receiver, he had a consistency score of a C. It wasn't a good ride. That's a generous C too. 41% of the time over 10.5. That's bad. A lot is going to come down to.

the new offensive scheme, the Ben Johnson system, who has always utilized the slot player, not just on and Ross St. Brown, but even prior teams. It's been a focal point. He's brought this up as to what a focal point is for the offense. And we don't know who's going to. That's not, doesn't seem good for DJ Moore. Well, yes and no. So DJ Moore is the better route runner. uh right now on the team so that that says slot he is more the prototypical slot size and type of player so that says more last year completely different staff different scheme everything o dunes they played more in the slot than did dj more but also you got to keep in mind they had keen and allen last year like that was their slot guy so that that that put dj more on the outside like that so you know and they're gonna mix it up i personally think j more plays more slots

then O'Donzee. Plays the slots? Yeah. Let's leave gambling out of it. I don't think DJ Moore. I don't think DJ Moore. I don't spin that wheel baby. I don't I don't understand who's on the outside for this team. I think they're going to play a lot of 12. I think you'll see a lot of come at in Loveland. I think Luther Burton was brought in for a purpose to play the slot. That is DJ Moore is an outside receiver to me. I mean, this is so is a doonese. Oh, Adunze is a complete outside receiver. Luther Burton is the was the those are your two outside to me. The, the interesting ad of the off season with a second round pick for a guy, Luther Burton has to play the slot. Yes. Like, and is he going to come in here and just make everything mucky muck for us for fantasy football for a team? Like someone should be awesome from here. And do we get a Buffalo Bills here where you're just like, okay, DJ Moore?

Had his week. Then the next three weeks were at sub 10. That's where my ranking of DJ Moore is I'm concerned. Broken for DJ Moore. I mean, and you can't really say they're going to do the same thing. But last year he had like 24% of his routes, screen passes, crossers. It was the fourth highest number in the NFL. We all watched and got annoyed because it was like, okay, yes, I give you a pat on the back for saying we want to get the ball in our playmaker's hands. That's cool. But gosh, these are low value targets. He had 1,364 yards on 96 catches in 2023. He had 966 yards on the same amount of catches last year. Thanks, Waldron. That's 400 yards difference. And, yeah, I think you drafted Lovelin and Burden with a purpose. Yeah. So, you know. The issue is, is Caleb good.

Like eventually they're like Buffalo and I what stuck out to me was like that's not Josh Allen. Yeah. I just yeah I mean the of no one's given us real consistent value. It's just a spike week from it's rotating spike weeks. I believe their best wide receiver on their roster is DJ Moore. I agree. Do you do you agree with that Andy? Do you think today is DJ Moore versus today's Romadoons? Yeah, yes. Yeah, I think so. So DJ Moore is their best wide receiver. Being drafted at 21, I think is near his floor. I'm totally fine to take him there. Are you fine to start him every week? With that 40% number. That will 100% come down to whether Caleb takes a step forward or not. I mean... What about a step sideways? Then no. He's going to do a lot of those. Yeah, I mean, I do think that the Ben Johnson system will be advantageous for DJ Moore.

I think that Caleb Williams can take a step forward and become good. Do you want D.K. McCabe or DJ Moore? D.K. McCask. You want Cortland Sutton, freshly paid or DJ Moore? DJ Moore. Okay. Well, I mean, he's sitting right in that spot. Kenneth Walker or DJ Moore? Don't ask me. That's a mic question. No, I would take DJ Moore. You don't have to know. Chuba Hubbard or DJ Moore. DJ Moore. So I think I want him where he's going personally because there is, he is the Terry McLaurin very, very, very good NFL wide receiver who we know can have a top six fantasy production if the touchdowns can come. Anything to add, Mike? No, I'm concerned. Is Evan Ingram primed to be a meaningful fantasy football asset in 2025?

entering his age 31 season, signed a two-year $23 million contract, 16.5 guaranteed. Cortland Sutton, the top target there in Denver, a whole bunch of other names that I think are interesting, right? We have Pat Bryant. We've got Mim's, Vailet, Mims, Troy Franklin. Troutman. I said interesting. But ultimately, from a... experience pedigree standpoint. Evan Ingram, we've seen huge years. Number six overall tied in in 2022. Number two overall tied in in 2023. Last year, poof. Played nine games. Disappeared. Still had 47 catches in nine games, which is a lot, by the way. That's a lot of catches. Yeah, I mean, but the issue is he doesn't do anything with his catches. How do you have a season?

Okay, I've, I've always been pro Evan Engram. Jason has been Mr. Anti-Engram and Mike's been pro Ingram. Over the course of his career, you two can face off and I'll be quiet. It's just hilarious of how do you have a season of 114 catches? Like that's your peak season. And you still don't have a season with a thousand yards. Yeah, you don't get a thought because you. That is wild. Here's a thing. Ain't his fault. 10, well, it could be. Yeah. No, I watched a play call in that season. If you, if you throw him the ball. Oh, run somebody over. Okay. You want him to run somebody over? Brink a tackle. He ain't built to do that. So here's, here's the thing. The question was asked, is he primed. Yeah. Yes, he is. He is primed to have a meaningful season. He just became the.

he's the autopilot why he's so serious he's the joker yeah the uh he he should be inheriting the number two target job in this role like sean peyton is set up to allow him to succeed he is primed for a very meaningful fantasy season it's just a matter of let me get rid of that primed button is evan ingram going yeah exactly going to have a meaningful fantasy no season in 2020 no he's not in the in the sense that in the sense that in tight in tight in six tight in seven tight in eight tied in nine on the season tight in 10 on the season those are not meaningful seasons right those are ends up being like bad draft picks if you didn't if you didn't get that guy off of the waiver wire and the double digits you wasted a now that works as ADP at the

ADP is 807 is what I'm seeing. Look, I, you could do a lot worse than ever ingram. You do have upside with Evan Ingram. You said primed. If I know he's going to get five, six targets a game, that's a good starting point for a tight end. Maybe that price is too much. Five six targets a game. That could turn into 25, 26 yards every game. You are such, you are such a ton. Give them at least eight, 10 yards per catch. 10 yards of reception. That's like the metric to me when I'm looking at tight ends that's like, are you a near the line of scrimmage, don't do much with it type of player, or are you someone that can have more fantasy relevance? And, you know, he went from 10 and a half, which wasn't that good three years ago, down to 8.4 last year down to 7.8. He, in a PPR, I can see it being more valuable, but 80P wise.

You know, right after him is David Nijoku, who I think is going to have Joe Flacco, and that becomes an exciting pick. Tyler Warren, the unknown rookie tight end, but massive draft capital, going after Evan Engram. Tucker Kraft, the yard after catch specialist. Colston Loveland, the newly paid Jake Ferguson. Are you saying you're out on anything? I think I'm out. I'm out. Even with my projection is where it is, but draft price-wise, I think I'm out. Let me ask you a question. It took eight years to get him out of. Who comes to mind when you think of a tight end that does not break tackles? Just catches the ball. I believe that you're looking for Zackertz. Oh, yes, I am.

Yes. Zach Hurts last year, 10 yards are. Also, Zach Kurtz, number one target in training camp right now. Not today. Today it was the senator. Look, there were many years where Jason Witton catching the football and falling down was valuable for fantasy. It's not something that I'm saying, hey, you have to go get this guy, but you're also not going to lose many weeks because of Evan Ingram. That's all I'm saying. You could take a shot on somebody that's, if you throw Isaiah likely into your lineup, good luck. Yeah. Good luck. You might get two touchdowns. You might get nothing. You might get far more likely to get a goose. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That's all I'm saying. You're never going to get a goose from Evan Ingram. He's going to live his bad games. He'll be five points. Are you locking Kyle Pitts into your lineup over Ingram this year? Holy crap. Why would you say that? No. Come on, Jay.

No. Just seeing if I will say this. All you got to do is choose either Pitts or Ingram in this situation. No. Genuinely, if I had to draft one of those guys going to this year, it would be Kyle Pitts. And that's because he's 24 years old. You hope he could take a step forward. Be better than we saw last year. I don't think Evan Ingram is going to at this age become. A better athlete and a, you know, a better football player. His worst is Pitts' best. That could very well be true. We are one year removed from 10.2 points per game. As I say, don't hear what I'm not saying. Oh. Don't hear what I'm not saying. I would not like. I will hear what you're not saying. I would not like either of those players. I don't think either one is going to be a meaningful every week starter for fantasy football. So you'll take a safer. You'd rather play Ingram. If you had to lock in.