Fantasy Football Podcast 2015 - Big Questions for 2015, NFL.com's Matt Harmon, Mailbag

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Thank you. I like that drop. Good job, Mike. All right. So we're just going to kind of, this is going to be free flowing. We're going to talk about some big time questions that we see jumping out at us for this season. It seemed like a really good topic and segment to discuss right before we get to next week. And next week, just so you know, is going to be all of your start sit for week one. It's going to be all of the guys you need to be paying attention to and getting ready for the season. I'm super excited about week one. I know these guys, you guys are kind of bored.

I am jonesed for week one, but this is going to be a fun time too, because this is the time where we just talk about these big questions, like, you know, in conjecture, a little bit more, a little bit more banter today because we don't know the answer. These are landscape questions. What is the fantasy landscape? What is going on? So the big kind of first question I want to just discuss is which, it happens every year. Which top picks do we think are going to bust?

Which guys have the potential to bust? And so what... Talk about players and them not performing. So I'll just start this conversation out with the bust data. I've done some research over the past three years. And it comes up with some really interesting things for the top 12 drafted running backs and top 12 drafted wide receivers. Last year, so 2014, the top 12...

ADP running backs drafted. There was three busts. Adrian Peterson, because he was suspended, there's no possible way you could have seen that. Monta Ball, you could have possibly seen it, and Doug Martin. So of the three guys of the top 12 were massive, massive busts. But then you look at the, let's look at the top 15. Who finished in the top 15? Eight of the top 12 guys.

top 12 guys finishers were drafted as the first 12 running backs eight of the top 12 yes at the running back position yeah so so that's a very high probability that you're getting a top 12 guy by staying with the running back because everyone freaks out oh yeah half of the first running oh wait where's that voice but mike half of the first running backs bust yes yeah that is that is true and then we move over to the wide receivers because that's that's the argument right

And now, granted, we're only looking at one year, we can go back even further. But last year, three busts of the top 12, Brandon Marshall, Keenan Allen, Corderell Patterson. Now, what Marshall's... Cordarell Patterson was going in the top 12 last year. He was. Top 12 wide receivers. Wow. Marshall was an injury. Allen was, I think he was beat up, but in just inconsistent play. And Patterson was just a massive bust. Let's look at the top 15 finishers of the year. Eight of the top 12.

We're from the top 12 ADP guys. So almost identical bust rate last year for wide receiver and running back. So here's what we know then. We know that players will bust. Some percentage of them will bust. So who are the guys then this season that you think have a potential to do that? Who are in that range. Okay. So a couple guys jump out to me as...

I'm a little bit concerned. I'm going to go with a guy that a lot of people really love. And obviously, if you look last year, the top 12 guys, people really love them. That's why they go top 12. But if you look at two of the three busts, Keene and Allen and Corderell Patterson, what do they have in common? Oh, they're going to take a huge sophomore. They're going to take that huge sophomore leap.

But the problem is people forget that there's also a very common sophomore slump. And I think that the big difference between, you know, hey, who's the sophomore wide receiver that's going to take a step forward or step backwards is situation, right? You look at Jordan Matthews, his situation got better. Jeremy Macklin left. But with Keenan Allen and Corderell Patterson, their situations were basically just the same. And there was an assumption of progression. So to me, Mike Evans is the guy. I don't see anything.

really that makes his world any better. We're just expecting he was awesome as a rookie. He's going to be awesomer as a sophomore. And he could be, yeah, he's going to be awesomer as a, that's a word now. It is now. But that's the name that I would throw out from wide receivers, just because there's really no reason other than he's going to get better in his sophomore year. And one component of bust has to be the injury.

factor as well because we talked about the suspension that was an unknown with Aryan, I'm sorry, with Adrian Peterson. If this injury had happened a little bit later for Aryan, that would have been an already kind of bus type situation where you just don't see it coming, but there's a risk involved to those pieces. One guy I want to talk about that fits into that mold. I love him on the field is C.J. Anderson, but...

His situation isn't solidified enough. He's not a big enough guy in terms of production over time to where if an injury happens, even a small one, if he pulls a hamstring and misses a game and a half, if he gives the opportunity to Ronnie Hillman for a little while.

You could see a very shared backfield, in my opinion, and that would translate to a bust situation for Anderson because of where he's drafted. Do you guys agree with that, or do you think that that is outside the realm of possibility? I think it's absolutely a possibility in what I think we should strongly, strongly reiterate right here. We are not saying these guys are going to bust. We're just saying that we know historically every year.

that somebody will bust. And so we're throwing out guys that we think have that little tag of potential that they could bust. When players at the starting running back position have some talent behind them, they need to be paid attention to. I mean, even Alfred Morris, I don't think he's a top 12 drafted back right now. But if Morris goes down with an injury and Matt Jones comes in and has an effective workload, you know, there are certain players that I'm not so worried about who's behind them, Aaron Foster for one.

like arian somebody did send in a message about arian by the way because he was my guy yesterday and he's like are you forgetting like what the week to week risk of arian like everybody's just talking about oh maybe he's back soon but all the kind of tumult that an owner of arian foster deals with uh probably a little bit yeah we should have been talking about that a little bit but he was my guy so i'm just going to pretend that he uh will be okay but yeah when a guy when there's talent behind you that that needs to be paid attention to a little bit um you know we were talking before the show about

draft trading in these things, the same quick question, and the idea that sometimes you just like the sure thing. And so if you have the opportunity to trade a guy with a question mark, like let's say somebody in your league loves CJ Anderson and they have Adrian Peterson or they have Eddie Lacey. And you can throw something in with CJ to get that guy. I mean, that's the kind of trade I do to give myself the best odds at...

a top running back for the entire season, because that's what you need. That's why we say draft the running back. You want that solid guy. He's not top 12, but he's top 15 right now. A running back, that is, I'm sticking with it because I still have concerned about him, and that is Latavius Murray in Oakland. He fits in perfectly what Jason was talking about, where he's now in, he's showed a little bit last year, and we just expect a giant leap to happen. So now he's going in the third round. I don't think we expect a giant leap.

You better expect a giant leap for taking a guy in the third round. Yeah, I agree with that, but you can't just say nothing's happened because the situation changed. No shirt Richardson, no Darren McFadden. Yeah, no Derr McFadden, no MJD. Okay, yeah, that's fair. But Roy Hulu is there, and that's my point, is I think Roy Hulu is a talent back. I don't think Roy Hulu should ever be your point. Hello! Yeah, I know you don't agree with that, but watch him on film.

He is a very solid runner. They gave him a solid contract to have a role in this offense. And if Latavius Murray struggles out the gate, it would not surprise me at all to see Hulu get some early down work. So what is the second big question we're going to talk about? I don't know. The second big question is, is this the year, is this finally the year where there is a changing of the guard at quarterback? Because we've got...

some of the best quarterbacks in the history of the NFL playing right now, but several of them are nearing the end of their career. You've got Drew Brees, who, you know, some, myself included, of kind of...

Refer to yourself, my friend. Some outside of here and myself have kind of predicted a little bit of a fall off and the beginning of the end for him. You got Peyton Manning, who some people think that started last year. You've got Tom Brady at the end. And now you've got the new risers, a lot of newer talent, you know, obviously Andrew Luck. So is this going to be the year where it changes from the old faithful to the new hotness?

Do you want to, oh, I guess you already said. That's just a question we're looking for as we go to this year. So what do you guys think? The old guys, are they reliable? Are they going to go 16 games, put up solid production this year? I still, I'm still buying into Peyton Manning. I'm still buying into Drew Breeze. I still like these guys. I know that Jason has valid points. They're older and getting towards the end. I guess not Drew Breeze, but Manning. I think this could be Peyton Manning's last year. But I...

But I believe he has enough left to have one good year. His game is so mentally based. And we know that his physical skills have eroded in front of us. He looks often like he's playing duck hunt when he just lobs it up. But Demarius Thomas doesn't care. DeMaris Thomas will catch that duck every day of the week. And he just, because he's still mentally sharp, he can get it done.

One of the things that is difficult when you see a transition like this is trusting the younger guys to be consistent. One of the things you get more so with the older guys is the week-to-week consistency. You know, one of the things that's been hard about Matt Ryan for years has been big game, small game, big game, small game. One of the things I fear out of Ryan Tannahill is a lack of consistency. I want to see it. I think he's capable of it. But with the younger guys, it's hard to kind of rely on those type of things.

I think people like Philip Rivers on a roster will help more fantasy teams than some of these upside plays that people might have more excitement putting them on their team. But I have a hard time believing that starting Philip Rivers is going to hurt you as much as starting one of those guys. Do you? Philip Rivers is a very interesting guy because he is inconsistent to me, where last year he came out.

just the barrels of the gun were steaming hot, just glowing red, and then he completely cooled off towards the end of the year. I think what an interesting thing of this question is, is there a quarterback that we are projecting this year can take the leap that he will be considered a top five, a kind of elite status quarterback next year? So last year, Andrew Luck was outside of that category because, and then obviously he,

quickly became that guy. So are those the names you're looking for, somebody who could be in the discussion as the upper tier? Robert Griffin. I don't think so. Well, you got Teddy Bridgewater. If he were to come on gangbusters this year, and I don't expect it because of scheme, but he was drafted for it. He's looked good. He could take that leap. The only other guy that comes to mind is maybe Sam Bradford.

Because if he just comes out and looks like the guy who was drafted number one overall. That's the thing to remember. Yeah, I mean, he came out to be an Andrew Luck, to be one of these guys. An injury and no talent around him has never let that happen, but could.