NFC West Breakdown + Angry RBs - Fantasy Football Podcast for 7/27

Debo, I looked this up the other day because I was breaking this down. Games played in his career, okay, when he has not been injured or left, right? Or games played when he's not left injured. His averages historically for his entire career. 6.7 catches 89 yards, 0.6 touchdowns, three rushing attempts for 33 yards and 0.8 rushing touchdown. Yes, he's been crazy efficient. In any game ever, that's his whole career. Even from day one, when he's not injured or leaves injured, he's been kind of insane. And so, you know, it's going to be, and Brandon Ayuk should not be buried in all of that. Like he was a very, very good player last year, and he's going to have his games. Like Jason said, there's going to be, I think I lean on the side, there's going to be the kiddle and Iyuk game. And then there'll be the Debo and CMC game.

And then there'll be the Kittle and Debo game. I think it'll be a couple of really good options each week. I think it'll be a couple really good options each week. I think it's going to be CMC in Debo. And then CMC and Kiddle or CMC in the music factory. CMC and the music factory. So Mike, where does that leave George? Just on fire over there. He doesn't jump in for five minutes. I apologize. For nothing. Yes. Where does that leave Kittle? This. Kittle has this like malaise in drafts right now that I don't know if it feels the same as Hawkinson for some reason where, you know, we haven't been super excited about Hawkinson, but I've heard nobody say go after Kittle. I know where Jason stands. Mike, are you willing to take Kittle in the middle of the fifth? I don't think so. I think I'd be willing to take Kittle if he dropped maybe around. If he dropped like a Biddle?

Yes, thank you. We're rare form today, fellas. Football is on the way and we are ready. The fifth round, I think, is just a little too rich for me because it will be inconsistent. A nice thing that you can look at is George Kittle was just on an absolute touchdown tear over the final four weeks, which were Brock Purdy weeks. So we do at least have that. And George, George Kittle is incredible at football. He just is, it's unfortunate that a lot of the time he's not asked to go out there and catch passes. They will start the season on the road against Pittsburgh, on the road against the Rams, and then the Giants in Arizona at home. So that's how to begin the year. Okay. Slight favorites on the road in week one right now against Pittsburgh. Let's take a quick break and come back with Gino Smith.

All right, we're back. We're talking about the Seahawks. And no, I didn't mean like Gino was going to be on the show. That's what it sounds like. But we're going to come back and talk about Gino Smith and the nine and eight Seahawks who, you know, we're one of the biggest surprises last year. Six win total. That's what they went into the season with. This year is at nine and a half. So when you look at that compared to what's San Francisco, 10 and a half? I mean, that's tight. And they were only four and six and one score games. They could have, you know.

closed a few games better than they did last year, and this would have been a better football team, finished the year 3 and 6. Gino Smith burst onto the scene as a competent quarterback. As a good quarterback. He was good. He was good. He was a good quarterback. Yes. Yeah, and the team should be far better than it was last year in part to. all the assets they are still receiving from getting rid of Russell Wilson. They added Charbonnet. They added JSN. They've added some pieces to their defense. I mean, they open to eight and a half wins, and now they've been bet up to nine and a half wins. This should be a really solid team. The big question that you have to ask and answer to know whether that's true is just, is Gino Smith for real? Is he?

You know, was that a one year wonder, just a career year where everything landed well when no one had expectations on him and, you know, and he just outperformed or, you know, or is he really good? One of the ways to tip the scales towards actually good would be to spend your first round draft pick on the number one rated wide receiver. Yep. Jackson Smith and Jigba joined the squad, then spend your second round pick on a capable. bruising, pass-catching compliment to Kenneth Wilson. Kenneth Walker. And they drafted Zach Charbonnet, somebody that we've talked about a lot. So they also gave him money. Like that should not be lost that it, Gino Smith, you can't give. Of course, the contract wasn't like what Herbert is, you know, Lamar, what these guys have gotten.

40 million guaranteed. Yeah, a three-year, $75 million extension with $40 guaranteed. Like, that's, that's not nothing. That's, that's, that's, Gino Smith is. Are we on the, are we on the Ryan Tannenhill path? Is that what Gino? Is that what Gino's doing? Hey, yeah, like Tanna Hill was a full flame out in Miami. Right. And new team, new opportunity. And yeah, actually is surrounded by a good organization with, with a good coaching staff. And then. good things happen for Ryan Tannehill. It really feels like it, it feels like it for me, for Gino Smith, who he's the quarterback 16 currently in ADP. We have him as our consensus QB 11. I don't think that, like, my admiration and my excitement for Gino Smith is not saying Gino Smith is going to finish as a top six, a top eight quarterback, but it's you can get him at the end of drafts.

And he can be a top 12 quarterback, and he can help carry you through some times. His first four matchups, Rams, Detroit, and the Carolina. I mean, like, these are, these are juicy matchups to start with for, for Gino Smith to try and get this, the Seahawks rolling. Heavy home favorites, that first week. I think that he, I think he's a great target in drafts because he's just, the, We aren't overpaying for Gino what he did last. Where did he finish? Did he finish? Did he finish? He was the quarterback five and six point. I don't think that's going to happen again. But top 12 is in the range of outcomes. He's being drafted at 16. We have them at 11 by consensus. And so, you know, you can get him where you can stream him. You don't have to be committed to a season of Gino Smith if things go the wrong way. No. And.

When you are grabbing a quarterback to stream or that you believe that's the possibility, you look at what we just looked at. What's the opening schedule? It's awesome. And I know we've brought this up earlier in the off season, but I have actually started to implement it in my personal strategies and drafts where... You know, I do want one of the great quarterbacks, and I want them to slip to me at a good value. Lamar Jackson, Herbert, those are the guys that I think are, you know, the better values right now. But if it gets to a point where, okay, now Trevor Lawrence and Fields is gone, I'm like punting the position. And what I have found myself doing is drafting Anthony Richardson first, who is going to start the season as my backup.

and grabbing Gino Smith with the last pick in the draft. Start the season there. I dig it. And you've got competence. You've got, you know, a quality quarterback in Gino. And then you've still got the huge upside hope in a mobile Konami Code quarterback. And this was a big play team. They had 30 touchdowns of 10 plus yards. That was the most in the NFL. And that's probably only going to improve with the explosive players they've added. I mean, Metcalf. I haven't ranked the highest right now, but he's going to be a red zone threat throughout the entire year. Tyler Lockett, Jackson Smith and Jigba. You know, Tyler Lockett, it's illegal for him to be drafted in the top 30 or something. You know, you always have a different reason not to take him presented by the fantasy community every year. This year, Jackson Smith and Jigba is the reason. And then all future years will be age. Mm-hmm.

But, you know, he might not be, you know, the best player on your team, but he's going to be better than where you draft him. And he's been top 15 for five years. So do I think he's going to be better this year than last year? I do not. But I think he'll be significantly better than his ADP. And that's all that matters. Wide receiver 17 to 20 maybe. Yeah. I mean, that makes sense. And he's in a role on the outside that is not. threatened by Jackson Smith and Jake Bow. He's just the burner on the outside that's going to catch deep touchdowns and keep doing what he's done. Nobody looks better when a play breaks down. Tyler Lockett just finds a way to help the quarterback. Yeah. And you don't really worry about injury with Tyler Lockett. I was going to say it. He, you know, he, I think he missed one game this last year. I know. I shouldn't say it out loud. But 16 games, 16 games, 16 games, 16 games. Because when he touches the ball.

He just goes down. Yeah. He's a smart man. He, this isn't the old school. Like you could have had an extra yard if you just tried to concuss yourself. Well, he actually did miss a game last year. He did. He said 16. Yeah, I know. One game in the last, what is that, five? He had a boo-boo on his hand or something. It's still a great resume for Tyler Lock. And he protects himself. He's a smart player. He's still incredibly fast, has great hands. And Gino Smith was an excellent. a deep ball passer last year, and I think that would continue. Yeah, Kyle reminds us that's the Marvin Harrison method of catching the ball and going down. It's funny to think that that's also the Peyton Manning method of taking a sack. So they were together, just not getting hurt together. Yeah, protect yourself. I wonder if they had any meeting about that, just like whatever we do, this team screwed if either one of us is hurt. So just go down. All right, Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet, the last conversation we need to have in Seattle.

Kenneth Walker was the RB5 from weeks 5 through 12. All you had to do was use your eyeballs when you watched him to see how electric, dynamic he is. But he did struggle at times if he didn't have the big play. Yeah. Maybe he was being stuffed behind the line of scrimmage. And Zach Sharbonate, you know, this team has dealt with injuries at running back for years and years and years. So they go out and they invest again. We saw this before. It was a. They drafted Penny when they had Chris Carson. Chris Carson. And now they draft Charbonnet when they had Kenneth Walker. And Kenneth Walker gets punted down dynasty draft boards because of this edition. Yeah. Kenneth Walker, we know he's good. He proved it last year. He's young. He's a stud running back. If you want to take a shot on him with the loyalty that Pete Carroll usually shows his existing players, I don't.

I hate that. I have him ranked behind his ADP. I have worries because I am a big believer in Charbonnet. And more specifically for fantasy, he's, I believe, going to be the more commonly used guy inside the five-yard line, the goal line bruiser. Charbonnet will be. And he is the clear better pass catcher. I think that Kenneth Walker can catch. passes, but that's never been his wheelhouse, whereas Charbonnet is just such an excellent, confident, capable pass catcher out of the backfield that you lose two of the most important things for fantasy football at the running back position here. So I'm fine drafting both players and just believing in the offense and the team in the running game. If I had to pick one, though, I would take the ninth round Charbonnet, hope that he outproduces the running back 34 where he's being drafted. Yeah, I was going to point out.

for Ken Walker here. He had 10 carries inside the five, and that turned into two touchdowns. So that can jump around from year to year, but that's not a great inefficiency that you want to see when the team has just spent a second round pick on a guy who's bigger than you and can also catch passes. I don't, yeah, and for me, this backfield is not one that I want to like, you know, go and lock it down. Get both? Well, no, I just mean like I don't want to make conclusive decisions on July 27th about my thoughts on these guys because I have what I think might happen. But I want to pay attention to what headlines Charbonnet is making throughout training camp. What's the utilization in preseason? And will we get, you know, is this going to be a midseason sharing of the load? Is Walker going to be one of those players that?

We look back and we say, wow, they play, you know, the Rams in Detroit and Carolina to start the year. And Walker's the R, you know, he's the RB1 through the first three weeks. That's a real possibility with the desire that they have to run the football and his ability to break off a big play. So it'll be something we need to pay attention to in camp, what kind of reps these guys are getting. Let's talk about the Rams. Five and 12 last year, it fell apart. They had a win total of 10 and a half. and they were coming off the Super Bowl victory. This year it's at six and a half. They partied a little too hard. Yeah, and they had the second most games lost due to injury. So Stafford, Cup, Alan Robinson. Addition by subtraction there. And, you know, 30th and pace of play, 27th points per game, 32nd and total yards. McVeigh was 32nd and total yards. It was a brutal.

brutal season. I mean, Shanahan loses his quarterback all the time. And they're no 32nd in total yards. I mean, there have been some bad years for the 49ers under Shanahan. And, you know, you have one here with the Rams having a bad season. But Shanahan is great. And he figures it out. And Sean McVeigh is great. And I believe he's going to figure it out. They brought the people back, the most important pieces to this team. And I'm. You know, I'm refusing to just believe that they're a trash panda. I think they're going to be good. I don't know if I stand on an island there, but when you've got a healthy Stafford and Cooper Cup and Cameron there in the back field. Yes. Yeah. Nicknamed Cameron. Oh, gosh, I didn't know who you were talking about. I had no idea. Cameron acres. I was like James Cameron or what is this, a Titanic joke? No.

Look, it's not a joke where it's very serious. This team is not going to be a great defense. There is that. This team is going to be more in the archetype, I think, of what Detroit did last year. But is that? And that could be very good for Stafford and Cup and Jefferson. Fantasy waiting to happen. Camakers. Yes, I agree with that. Cam Acres. Cameron. Thank you. Now I was lost. I think you can be both. I think you can be a bad team. Cam and Cameron. That's all I thought. That's all I thought he was saying. I thought he was just saying you could be both. Why do I do this job? I'm glad you were there because it was so obvious to me. James Cameron Acres. Running back. Oh, man. Yada yada. Bad defense. Possibly an offense that has to keep up. That can mean bad things too. Matthew Stafford has had.

problems with turning the football over. So we'll see. It could be the beginning of the end as well for this head coach, Stafford, you know, Aaron Donald and company. No more Jalen Ramsey. It wasn't good last year. Daryl Henderson, Alan Robinson are gone. No big additions on offense to speak of other than the return of Cooper Cup, the return of Van Jefferson. And then you'll have a mix of Ben Skoronik, Pooka and a cow, Tutu Atwell. Very impressive kind of group of names. Yeah. Law firm back behind Cup and Jefferson. Very good names. And then Tyler Higby, who just kind of ho-hum, I'm hanging out and just, I'm there if you need me. I'm Mr. Necessary, but I also will disappoint you if you were to depend on me. I think the Rams, it feels like their entire, much like the,

the Green Bay Packers because there's so much unknown of Jordan Love, but the unknown of the Rams has created a real value opportunity here because Stafford as the quarterback 23, it was just essentially two years ago now, but over 40 passing touchdowns that year. If Stafford's healthy, he's not the quarterback 23. Cameron Acres is an incredibly interesting. running back taking in the fifth round. It is that dead zone running back area, but he just, he really seemed to have a resurgence to put the team on his back at the end of last season. So I'm perfectly fine with his ADP. Cooper Cup can be the number one guy. And Van Jefferson is being priced in the average draft position of like, he like, he's just not even going to be on a football field. It's ridiculous. Wide receiver 70. And he was.

just off of a really big season before he got hurt multiple times kind of missing training camp and then missing the beginning of the season. There's a lot of guys here that I like. It's going to be kind of gross, but I think that there's fantasy value here in almost every ram. I just think that this will be, you know what the, you know what the basement could be if it doesn't go right. Sure. And the basement is to. produce the least amount of offense possible. So if Stafford, behind one of the worst offensive lines in football with, like he has a history of kind of chronic injury, neck and back, if he goes out, your investments will be, and there is a decent odds of that happening. So that would be the one thing to keep in the back of your mind in terms of diversification, maybe not loading up. But shoot your shot with some of these undervalues because that's why they're undervalued.

It's only Cooper Cup that you have to draft highly. And I don't think that. Although, Cam Acres is not. It's back of the fifth round. Yeah, I mean, but he's in the top 24. He's higher than I thought he would be at this point. Let's put it that way. But even you're just kind of making the case here for if things go wrong. That's not stopping you from drafting Cooper Cup at the top, right? Andy? No, it's not stopping me from that. But it's going to be a downgrade for Cooper Cup if he loses. Oh, yes. Matthew Stafford, obviously. Yeah, Stafford's health is the biggest fear of this office. Because if Stafford's out there, then every single one of these pieces is undervalued right now, including Cooper Cup, who's a first round pick. If Stafford is healthy all season, Cooper Cup is being underdrafted in the first round. Just to remind you how dominant he was.

The year before last, he was the wide receiver one. He was the highest scoring player in all of fantasy at every position. He had 367 fantasy points. The second place wide receiver did not have 300 fantasy points in half PPR. And then last year, he was just doing the same exact thing. He was unstoppable, was never, didn't have a single week where he wasn't a top 20 wide receiver. He was the number one wide receiver on a points per game basis by a pretty wide margin. You know, you look at him versus Justin Jefferson at that point, 18 versus 20.3 fantasy points. Cooper Cup's just been just a dominator. So if Stafford's healthy, he's worth the risk to me. I do want to bring up they could start pretty bad. I mean, they face Seattle on the road, very tough place to play. Then they get to play San Francisco. Then they go to Cincinnati.

So the first three weeks of the season are rough for the Rams. What we got here, guys, the end of the show. No, the Cardinals at 4 and 13. Last year, they opened with a nine and a half win total. Back when Kyler Murray still had an intact ACL, Cliff Kingsbury was still the coach. This year, the win total is at 4.5. They're currently favored in zero games for the entire season. You know, they were two and six in one score games. They had the fourth most games lost due to injury. DeAndre Hopkins is gone, as is A.J. Green and Rob, Robbie, Robert, Chosen, Anderson. But don't worry, guys. David Blow and Zach Pascal and Jeff Driscoll have a ride. David Blow! Yeah, and you can even make jokes with Driscoll. I mean, we got them all. Here's what I will say. And right now we found out Kyler Murray.

Zachar is starting on the pub. This team does not have a lot of talent, especially on the defensive side of the football. On the offensive side, I think that there is, you know, we've had some bad Cardinal teams. If you go back to 2018, that Arizona Cardinals team was an absolute train wreck. That would be the Steve Wilkes season where I believe they were, what, one in 50 or two? They were one. They were the first overall pick. Yeah, so. I do want to point out this team probably won't do what that team did under the simple reason that if Kyler Murray is playing quarterback, it gives them an opportunity on offense every week. And you know in this league, if you have a quarterback, you can have two turnovers by the opposing quarterback and Kyler's competent, and you might win a couple ball games. That 2018 team had no quarterbacks. Josh Rosen. As I said. Yeah. So I'm not, I'm not.

projecting victories for this team, a lot of them. But I will say, I think, you know, they're going to have all of their ADPs driven down due to the fact that they're kind of known as being the worst team in football. That's the way Vegas has it projected. But Kyler Murray has always produced as a quarterback in fantasy. James Connor, since he's come to Arizona, has always produced. Hollywood Brown, when he's been healthy, has always produced. And, you know, I know Zach Ernst is coming off the ACL, but someone in the tight-in position will have opportunities here, too. So where are the diamonds in this dirty, dirty sewer of the Arizona Cardinals? You know, I know we are hometown fans and sometimes we get called homers, but I think there's actually quite a bit of value to be had for fantasy from the Arizona Cardinals because it appears so putrid that people want to be hands off.

The truth here is that their defense, it has like one good player. Buddha? Yeah, who's hopefully going to play for us. He's going to play. It's just one of those things where Kyler is not missing the season. You know, you watch videos of him right now on the Cardinals' flight plan. He is on his way to playing football. He wants to be there week one. It's still a possibility. It is absolutely a possibility. He's running right now, obviously not cutting and doing all of those things, but he's clocking on GPS, like great miles per hour on his runs. I run great miles per hour. He could be, he could certainly be their week one. But it's a guarantee unless some new injury happens that he's playing for.

at least half the season, or if not, you know, the majority of the season. He's not missing the whole season. So if you've got Kyler with a terrible defense, there will be fantasy points to be scored here. One from Kyler, two from James Connor, because he is the only running back in town, and he catches passes, and he's great around the goal line. So James Connor, I think, is a great value. And Hollywood, with the departure of Hopkins, he becomes the one again. If Kyler plays week one, Hollywood Brown is the singular best steal at wide receiver in the draft right now. Yeah. In my opinion. You saw it last year. Last year when Hopkins was suspended for those first few games, he had three top 10 wide receiver performances last year in that stretch. Is he in that category, Jason, where like you said, an injury or a situation,

eventually the ADP gets driven up, but it doesn't get driven up enough. Hollywood is at wide receiver 30 right now. That is not in his range of outcomes with a healthy Kyler-Marie at all. The targets will be too, there'll just be too many targets with too bad of a defense. Hollywood Brown will be a top 15 receiver, I think, if Kyler was healthy. And the best part is, is that even if Kyler is not healthy, he's... still the wide receiver won for the NFL team that will be throwing the ball. Like he's going to catch eight passes a game. So I think from Clayton Toon. Sure, from whoever, Colt McCoy, Clayton Toon, he will catch passes. They won't be as valuable. He won't be a superstar, but he won't be a wasted pick when you're drafting him as the wide receiver 30. Yeah, I agree. Mike. Is there other other opportunities? Trey McBride, Ron Dale Moore, Michael Wilson, the rookie, Greg Dorch.

The PPR machine. Yeah, I think it will be interesting. Rondale Moore is still interesting to me. I have him ranked above his current ADP. If it works out that you have Hollywood and then Michael Wilson on the outside so that Rondale can go play in the slot where he needs to be, where he has. When he's thrived, that's where it has happened. So I think that he's interesting as a really late pick, and it's hard to know what to make of, of Trey McBride. He was a second round pick. I mean, that's really high draft capital for a tight end. Zacherts, it's on the PUP right now. I mean, he really hurt his knee this past season. He looks so happy in the team pictures, though, man. He looks like a guy would just, he seems like a jovial, a jovial fella.