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Main show · August 11, 2020

Top 10 WR Rankings + Jason Takes a Dive - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/11

RSSAug 11, 2020 · transcript indexed
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Top 10 WR Rankings + Jason Takes a Dive - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/11

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141 passages
40:33 ↗

You can come back in the third round with Kenny Gallaudet in a lot of drafts. And I would be very happy to do it. Look, he gets air yards. He gets high quality targets for fantasy points. He gets end zone targets. Big plays. He gets big plays. I get it. I would love for Kenny Gallaudet to get 150 targets, but he doesn't have to have that to be a very consistent wide receiver want. I won't have Kenny Gallaudet in any league. Now trust me.

41:03 ↗

He's so smooth. Yeah, I just, I don't, I don't know what it is about. Is it the 65 receptions to get the number? So statistically, I know what it is. I don't like, you know, we just talked down Tyree Kill and the consistency factor because, you know, Tyreek's probably an 85 reception guy.

41:25 ↗

But at least he has Pat Mahomes and the highest scoring offense, more touchdown opportunities, even deeper yards per reception capability than Ghaladay despite the height. You know, Goladay is a player to me that is scary. I believe that Detroit wants to run the ball. I mean, that's clearly what Daryl Bevel.

41:49 ↗

Would- 30th year running? They want to. That's what they invested in DeAndre Swift. Now, even when I projected, I don't think they're going to be able to. But I do believe that's their desire. I don't think they want Stafford to lead a high-power offense because that's not what Patricia has ever been. That's not what Daryl Bevel has ever been until this last year where we had.

42:10 ↗

an eight-game stretch before Stafford got injured, where he was amazing. And I think we're just extrapolating too much out of that to say this lion's offense with Stafford and Goladay and Marvin Jones is just going to be explosive. And the reality is the difference between Kenny Goladay and Marvin Jones is significant. It's major. I love Marvin Jones. I mean, Marvin Jones is the value pick in every single draft, except for the ones where I.

42:39 ↗

end up picking Kenny Galladay in the third round, Marvin Jones is, because he can get you a touchdown. He can get you three touchdown weeks, but he's not consistent. Kenny Galladay is the number one. It's not, I don't have that feeling of projecting going, like last year. It was, well, Kenny Galladay, I don't know if I want to pay up because could he, is he actually the number one or is it one A, one B? They're going to be going back and forth. Last year,

43:09 ↗

to me wrote the story. It's Kenny Gawaday is elite and he's only getting better. Last year that wrote the story for you where Marvin Jones got injured in a game and left early and all that. Kenny Goladay averaged 13 and a half fantasy points per game, Marvin Jones 12 and a half. And so yes, there is a difference. But consistency. Sure. My point is that these are.

43:35 ↗

I mean, you can get Marvin Jones in the eighth, ninth round. I mean, nobody wants Marvin Jones, whereas Kenny Gallaudet, you're paying up. And I just fear that if this is a 65 catch guy who doesn't end up near 10 touchdowns, he's going to disappoint you. Yeah, I mean, I don't read much into the.

43:54 ↗

Points per game piece because it's just Marvin doing his three touchdown thing and then disappearing for seven weeks. But, yeah, I mean, there's always more risk like Jason's saying with a 65 touchdown guy. It reminds me of Vincent Jackson. You know, Vincent Jackson was a monstrous, big play guy, double digit touchdown potential. The question is whether Gallaudet can take another step forward. I believe he can. I believe this offense will be Matthew Stafford's much in the way it was with Calvin Johnson. He's just the driver.

44:22 ↗

So I'd like to see that. I think that's why we like Stafford at the back of drafts. But 65 receptions moves Gallaudet down. Kenny Gallaudet could be one of the best wide receivers in the league. He has the talent, the skill. If he was a 140 target type of player, a possession guy as well as a deep threat, he would dominate fantasy. So that's why I get it. I love Kenny Galladay. I just, I don't think that's his role and I don't enjoy that on my fantasy team. All right, number seven.

44:51 ↗

Amari Cooper coming in at number seven. You're welcome, Mike. This is my fault. This is my fault. It's also Jason's fault. I think it's Mike's fault. I think it's Amari Cooper's fault. It's my fault that he's this low? Yes. I have him at four, Jason at six. Mike at 12. Well documented. Somehow I still have him ranked above ADP. This is ridiculous. Yeah, I mean, Amari Cooper. I hate myself for it.

45:22 ↗

Weeks 1 through 10 last year. 94 reception pace, 1,500 yards pace, 13 touchdown pace. Very consistent. Back half of the year, we prefer to blot that out. We actually deleted it from the player profile on the website. It just says error code. You guys clearly did with your rankings. That would be 59 for 779. No, I don't read too much into the back half of the year. I know Jason doesn't. I think this is one of the best officers. What about when he did it two years ago?

45:51 ↗

For Dallas? He did not. With the back half of the year when he played two years ago for Dallas, he was of fun. What about the first half of that year? When he played for a different team, he wasn't as good. I mean, it's just a matter of. This is a flag planting player. If you believe that Amari Cooper can help your fantasy team, you know, you believe that he's going to be one of the best in the league. Every year he's extremely inconsistent. He has half of his games great. Half of his games suck. But if you dive deeper, I think there is rationale.

46:22 ↗

And here's the thing, at the end of this year, it's going to be proven, right? He's either going to have had another inconsistent year, and Michael be shirtless running down the street with a cape on flying. To be fair, I want Amari Cooper to succeed. I think he can be a top-notch fantasy player. This is just boy who cried wolf at this point. Yeah, I'm just, look, if I miss the year that Amari Cooper finally became a season-long.

46:51 ↗

a league winning type wide receiver, so be it. Amari Cooper is the reason that Brooks doesn't try anything new on the menu. Because there's just, it's the risk reward factor. If he just take, you know, Amari Cooper, I got him at four, right? I mean, that's pretty high up there. You could take somebody just much more safe for consumption. He is not a club sandwich. He's not a club sandwich. No, I love a club sandwich. No, he's the menu item where you go, oh, they have that here?

47:17 ↗

They got Kraft Mac and Cheese? Really? They have something? It's not crab mac and cheese. It's a, you know, it's a lava cake, you know, one of those like very difficult to make desserts where they can be ruined or, oh my goodness, this is great. Yeah. But I think they've figured out how to cook.

47:34 ↗

With Amari Cooper. And see, here's the thing. This is why I say if you dig a little deeper, the back half of the year when he was traded to Dallas, he was phenomenal. Then he comes out and is phenomenal. He's the wide receiver three through those first 10 weeks. Gets injured, is hobbled, is on the field as a decoy. Sucks obviously the rest of the season. And so the question, and then they paid him $100 million. So the question is. Look, people make $100 million mistakes. His ADP is really low. I have them really low. I would.

48:04 ↗

I will draft Amari Cooper with this ADP. Yes, I am willing to draft Amari Cooper. The last thing I will say about him is two of the last three years, against press coverage, he is finished in the bottom 22%. He cannot get off a jam. You don't want to know what wide receivers can't get off of jams? Cooper Cup, Tyler Boyd, Juju Smith Schuster, Jameson Crowder. What's...

48:30 ↗

What's the common commonality between those four guys? Those are slot wide receivers. Amari Cooper is not a true number one. He is not a true X receiver. And honestly, I did you know that, Amari? Like, I'm fine. He's coming for you. Look, the addition of C.D. Lamb might actually be way better for Amari Cooper because now you have a.

48:52 ↗

someone else who can run on the outside and you can just keep moving Amari Cooper around hoping that a good cornerback doesn't see him. Oh, no. Oh, no. DeAndre Hopkins comes in at number eight. DeAndre Hopkins. Yeah. You know what? He's not getting the celebration dance bump in our rankings. Yeah. He is the wide receiver 4 by ADP. He is eight on our consensus rankings. Eight, five, and 14.

49:22 ↗

That it would be me, Jason, and Mike. And that is a pretty big disparity for a player that is finished first, second, and fifth the last three years in Houston. Makes me very sad where I have him ranked. And Hopkins could, he could be installed in Arizona and just be the target machine like he was for Houston. I'm just, I just don't see it happening that way. You have an air raid offense where, like,

49:51 ↗

Cliff Kingsbury wants to run five wide receivers out on the field. And when you have five wide receivers out there all the time, you don't force feed a guy 30% of your targets. Rich Rebar did a study on alpha elite wide receivers who changed teams and then had an ADP of being a wide receiver one. And by his calculation, there were six players who have done this in the past 10 years.

50:18 ↗

and only one of them actually finished as a wide receiver one, changing teams. Was it Brandon Marshall? I believe it was Brandon Marshall. Yeah. I mean, that's the one that sticks out. It's hard to do. I have had Hopkins in zero drafts. Yeah, I have him. But he's number one in my heart. Oh, for sure. And I hope he dominates, and he will dominate in real football because he's fantastic. I have him at number five. I have him the highest. I actually think he has a good year. There is no chance that I draft him in.

50:48 ↗

any league that I'm in because he's being drafted at that position where he has to hit. And the variables are monumental. You're talking about a player who has averaged 166 targets going all the way back to 2015. I can't get him there. He's 140 target guy, even with a faster pace of play. And so could he dominate for Arizona with a faster pace of play, higher?

51:16 ↗

you know, scoring offense potentially. Yes. But could he be nowhere near the value that you have to draft him at? Absolutely. You know, when we're just trying to make the highest odd predictable choice, it's too much, too much risk for me with Hopkins at that cost. Obviously, he's going to be good in general. But it's, will he pay off if you draft it? All right. We're starting to get into some bigger question marks now. DJ Moore at number nine.

51:45 ↗

Mike's got him up at 7, Jason at 10. I have him at 12. DJ Moore last year finished as the wide receiver 18. DJ Moore was the wide receiver 10 before he went out at the beginning of a game with a concussion and then missed the next week. DJ Moore was actually pretty great. He was averaging six receptions in 84 yards. And this was from Kyle Allen, who had the 35th best passer rating in the league. 35th.

52:14 ↗

Now he gets... Best. Best. Thank you. Now he gets... Look, Teddy Bridgewater last year was 11th in pass the rating. We know that he's accurate. We know that he can hit a player in stride. So, like, to me, it's DJ Moore is, he's an athletic freak. But 10th in targets last year, like, he is a focal point of this offense. And if he can get someone who is more accurate and actually hitting him in stride more often,

52:43 ↗

I really think that DJ Moore can be great. And he was the wide receiver 10 in half-point PPR, like I said, before going out. And that's only scoring four touchdowns. Yeah, I was going to say, DJ Moore's narrative here is really if, though, you know, as opposed to like Kenny Gallaudet overcame the Blau experience and who was the other, they had multiple non-stafford quarterbacks last year. I can't remember the other guy's name. But Gallaudet kind of overcame that still had the fantasy finish that was strong.

53:10 ↗

Last year, DJ Moore ended up as the wide receiver 18. We haven't projected higher than that by a wide margin. It's noticing the touchdown totals were down. It's if Teddy Bridgewater is going to be a big improvement. It's if Matt Rule is able to use DJ Moore in the same capacity with the target share. Last year, 135 targets. Does that go up with Teddy Bridgewater? No doubt of the talent.

53:37 ↗

More questions around DJ more than other wide receivers because of those variables. New quarterback, new head coach, tough division. Is DJ Moore going to be the centerpiece? Robbie Anderson also coming in. Yeah, this is, there are variables here. And we just talked about DeAndre Hopkins. Both these guys have massive variables, different schemes, different quarterbacks.

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