Bold Predictions for 2021 + Cam Cut, The Pirate Life - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/31

Sorry, had to hit it. Last chance. He will no longer be scooting his booty in New England, where last year he had the fourth most carries inside the five. That's a lot. Those carries will now go, like not every single one of them, but the bulk of them will go to Damien Harris. This offense, they just signed Johnny Smith and Hunter Henry. You think they paid those?

Two tight ends, a whole bunch of money to play one at a time? No, they're going to be in two tight end sets. They're a run heavy team. They already had a great offensive line. Like run heavy. Like I said, last year the third most rushing attempts in the league. I'm not saying that Damien Harris is a top 10. I'm saying he's going to be top 19. And he has provided. That's right. You are. He has an incredible value where he is going in drafts. And like,

I don't think that casually, if you haven't drafted yet and your casually, you're going to be able to extract some serious value. Now, we can't, I can't in good faith say Damien Harris top 10 because the passing volume just, it's not going to be there. But inside the top 20 every year, you do have a handful of these running backs that aren't past catchers. They get it done with just the rushing yardage and the touchdowns. And Jason, you kind of alluded to it at the top of the show.

An outlier season where Damien Harris scores 12 plus rushing touchdowns, while we're not saying that's going to happen. That's in the realm of possibilities for this team. We call that a Lagaret Blunt. Yeah, exactly. The weighted blanket of Cam Newton has been removed from the team. So it definitely, it feels more, we said it before. It feels more optimistic across the board because the possibilities aren't boxed in. Like the Cam offense was going to be.

We knew what it was going to be. We watched it. It was hard to watch at times. So, yes, that is, there's a lot of optimism. And I could see top 19. And, like, for sure. Remandre Stevenson has looked great in the preseason. That's true. But he's still a rookie. And Bill, I mean, you know, Bill. Bill's a wild card. His only reason I brought that up is like, Bill could just do that from day one. He is a wild card, but he's also a bit of a cremogen.

and old school that I think that the rookie is going to have to earn his way onto the field, much like Damien Harris had to. Who did he use to use around the goal line? I'm trying to remember the guy that always played. No, I know that, but the special teams. Oh, Brandon Bolden. Yes, that's right. That's the name that haunts the dreams of many. Yes. All right, great. My second bold prediction for today's episode is what I'm calling the five pack of flips. I really couldn't come up with a title.

Look, we got to get back to marketing. That's flips with a Z. Oh, now are you in? Yeah, that's super cool. Flip flops with a Z? Soups, cool. Here's what we've talked a lot about these situations where you have wide receiver 2s, wide receiver ones by ADP, how they perform. I have a five pack of players that are being drafted behind their counterparts at the wide receiver position that I believe will finish ahead of them. Now, this happened 11 times last year.

There were 11 teammates that were drafted second by ADP that ended up finishing fantasy-wise ahead of their teammate that finished first. So I've got five, and I'm not considering this bold prediction at home run unless all five hit. So it is a pack. This is a parlay. They all have to hit.

Oh. And then I get the applause. Oh, man. If only four or five hit, I don't get it. That's how parley works. That's right. It doesn't pay out. So here are the five. Julio Jones ahead of A.J. Brown. Oh, man. Julio, I believe, will demand more targets and still has the physical ability. He will end up ahead of A.J. Brown. Number two. I demand respect in this office, and I'm still not given any. Well, it's the tattoos. You can demand what you don't deserve, Mike, but.

I mean, it ain't coming. And you're a pirate. So Chris Godwin above Mike Evans is the second flip by ADP. Okay. Debo, Samuel above Brandon Ayuk is the third. Cooper Cup ahead of Robert Woods and T. Higgins over Jamar Chase. I think the first one there is going to be your your hardest. Sure.

way to come through on all five. Julio over A.J. Brown is... Look, that's hard to come by. I'm concerned about Julio Jones. I brought him up as reluctantly brought him up as a bus just because of his ADP. But Andy, if you, I mean, if you really want to get spicy, I think there's a six you need to add.

I'm not adding AJ Green above DeAndre Hopkins, if that was the one you were baiting. You're a coward. What's funny is two of these. I didn't even realize this because I'm looking at the ones that did it last year. Robert Woods was drafted behind Cooper Cup and was the better fantasy player. And Brandon Ayuk was drafted below Debo last year and was the better fantasy player. Some are due to injury, right? Like Marvin Jones over. I'm looking at this list and the majority of them are due to injury. Several of them are for sure. Yeah.

or suspension. You know, Fuller and Brandon Cooks probably wouldn't have ended up that way without that. Marvin Jones and Kenny Galladay. But I'll take injury. That's fine. The path to success, it doesn't matter. You know, Jefferson and Thielen were both healthy. And that was a situation where Jefferson ended up ahead of him. So we shall see. But that's my second bold prediction. The five pack of flips with the Z. All right. I like it. Speaking of a five pack, I'm going to the well. It's my yearly.

fantasy trap team for my bust call. I've done this on all of our bus shows over the last several years. Currently, I do not give myself a win last year. You don't? I don't on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers because Brady was good. Godwin obviously wasn't, but he was injured. The running game was bad, but I guess Mike Evans was still pretty good. Now that I say it, I mean, I should get a win, but I'll give you half credit. Well, think, even with no credit there. Don't you normally, I mean, hold on a second. Okay.

I know you did this with the Patriots. Yes. And they won the Super Bowl. Yes, but it was a huge win. It's not by point. My point is they won the Super Bowl. And then I did it with Brady again. And then you did it with Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and they won the Super Bowl. So I'm just saying I'm setting the table for your Super Bowl winner. Right. Super Bowl winner. It's going to be a little harder this year. It's going to be real bold. But this is for fantasy. So right now over the last five years.

Not including last year, I would have an 80% hit rate. I'm hitting these. This is true. And this year, this year the team that I think is a universal bust for fantasy is the Cincinnati Bengals. Their ADP is asinine. It is cockamamie. It is absolutely nonsensical. Define cockamamies. The ADP for the Bengals passing attack.

already bakes in the assumption that they are elite. The only other team that is having ADP like this is the Dallas Cowboys, who we have seen be elite with DAC, who has more talented, more proven assets on the field. We have, you know, I've brought up Chase as a bust candidate.

But now you get to do it again. But it's beyond just Chase and the bad vibes of the preseason. Joe Burrow has not been great and is coming off of a very difficult knee injury. Jamar Chase is better than AJ Brown was last year for this team. But that doesn't mean. AJ Green. Yes, AJ Green. Thank you. But that doesn't mean that's good for fantasy. That could be bad for fantasy because now.

T. Higgins might not be able to do what he would have been able to do. Tyler Boyd, who's being drafted still very relevantly high. I think he's like the wide receiver 36 is, I mean, the upside just doesn't exist there. Burrow is being drafted high, and Joe Mixon is one of those players where we've talked about him. The volume itself is usually king and is enough, but when I'm on the clock,

And I'm staring at Joe Mixing. You just have that feeling like... You're having a hard time. He's going to let you down again. I view this team very, very similar, very similar to how I viewed the 2019 Cleveland Browns. And on that roster, they universally busted with the exception of Chubb. Chub had a good year. He had the volume. But Jarvis was drafted high and busted. Baker was the quarterback four and busted. Odell Beckham was drafted super high and busted. I am avoiding...

this team to the best of my ability for where they are going. And if you think about it, this is a team that's being like drafted like their elite. They have been really bad under Zach Taylor. 23rd and pace of play. 29th at points per game. 29th at total yards. 27th to passing yards and passing touchdowns. That's from last year, right? Yes, from last year and not all of Zach Taylor. But it's just one of those things where it's like we are.

expecting a huge breakout, drafting it as if it's already happened, and I don't even think it's going to happen. Plus, they are in the hardest, the second hardest division. I mean, I'm not convinced Zach Taylor is a great head coach, and he's in a division with really great coaches who see this guy over and over. You've got to play the Steelers twice.

You got to play the Ravens twice. I think the Brown's defense is good. It's not a tough sell to me. I'm on board with it. Mixen is still a player that I think will have fantasy relevance, but maybe below ADP. I mean, we were talking in the office. We both keep passing on him. We don't know why. We're like, this is not fair.

I am willing to draft Mixon because of the volume, but yeah, it's really true whenever I'm push come to shove and whatever my rankings says, I'm like, Gibson, Mixing, let's go Gibson. For me, Clyde Mixing, let's go Clyde. So I keep pushing mixing mixing now. Mike? All right, my final spicy take, my bold prediction for 2021, Andy, you had a flip. You had a five pack of flips. Yeah. And you mentioned, oh, Chris Godwin.

drafted later than Mike Evans, you think Chris Godwin finishes higher than Mike Evans. And this spicy, shameless, bold prediction says you did not go far enough. Antonio Brown becomes the most valuable fantasy-wide receiver for the Tampa Bay Buck Aeneers. I like that I wanted right in the middle of the team name. Buck, what, Aeneers? I had a decision I had to make on the fly. Do I shorten to...

or do I just steamroll through and get the whole word out? I think you know where I laid it. You're closed within ears. Yeah. And here's where, and no one's projecting this in fantasy drafts or in our, but this is like something to me that could actually happen. Let's look at the history of Antonio Brown. I mean, not mentioning, well, I will mention it. He's one of the best wide receivers of this generation. Antonio Brown.

will go down historically as one of the best wide receivers of all time. And it's not speculation to say Tom Brady likes Antonio Brown. Go back to the Raiders drama when Antonio Brown froze his feet off and like there was all this craziness happening with the Raiders. And then he got released. And Antonio Brown is immediately picked up. Uncle Bill grabbed the phone and said, A, B, come over to our team. And he starts.

Right off with the street. And he gets a 29% target share. He finished that game 4 for 56 and 1. Off the street into the New England's Patriots offense. By the way, the Patriots offense has retired many, many prolific wide receivers. They've gone into training camp. They thought they were like, oh, I'm going to go one last shot here. I'm going to ride it out, try and get a championship with the Patriots. And they go, nah, man.

This is not for me. And they end off, they sail off into the sunset. What happened last year? Well, Antonio Brown off the street yet again for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. And he walks right into a 20% target share. In fact, since he started, and it was like week nine, I believe, all three Tampa Bay wide receivers were healthy. He had a higher target and reception share than Chris Godwin. And now Antonio Brown has an...

actual offseason with Tom Brady. He has an actual offseason in the offense that he is going to be a big part of. Last year, Mike Evans finished okay for fantasy football, but you saw him disappear. You had six games where Mike Evans had five or fewer targets. And I think that Antonio Brown might just still be a top tier wide receiver. Yes, he is old. Oh, gosh. But Mike. Yes, voice of public opinion. Isn't he Antonio?