Bold Predictions for 2021 + Cam Cut, The Pirate Life - Fantasy Football Podcast for 8/31

I was going to ask the question. Were there any good pirates? I'm sure they're like pulled up on another boat and they're like, here's some oranges. Like, you guys look hungry? Hmm. I don't know if they're that good. What if they did? I mean, scurvy. Number one problem. That's what I'm saying. Yeah, and all shipfaring people. Here's some citrus. That's why the oranges came out. I had scurvy on the mine. Bold predictions time for 2021. I have a 32.

shamelessly bold predictions article that is coming out today. Last year had some hits in there like Derek Henry leading the league in rushing and rushing touchdowns and Tampa making the Super Bowl and yet Godwin, Evans, and Gronk and all them not being so great or Metcalf over Lockett. So we've got some predictions, two of two predictions each on today's show. So this would be the part where Jason steps out of the room for a moment. I'm sorry to.

be bringing this forth, but it is what I believe. You should have to apologize to your parents. It's super bold, bringing shame upon the Holloway name. My rankings have reflected this bold prediction throughout the offseason. I did not have to make a tweak to them for this bold prediction to come true because this player I have at 21. But the bold prediction is this, that Clyde Edwards Allaire running back for the Kansas City Chiefs will finish outside the top 20 running backs.

Again. Boo! And obviously, that is contrary to both of your opinions on Clyde. But let me make the case for you. Let me tell you why I believe this to be true. Yes, there was a lack of touchdowns last year. Now, that is a negative for a running back. And it was a bit odd, a little bit outside the bounds of what you normally see, right? So we're looking at positive touchdown regression as the cure.

For what ails Clyde Edwards Allaire? And maybe that changes. Maybe that magically changes. But I am asking the question here with this bold prediction. Why would it change? And so I'm going to give you some situations. Well, will his effectiveness for fantasy change because of the screen game and the passing game? I don't think so. Clyde was horrible. He was one of the most inefficient pass catchers at the running back position in football last year.

Fourth worst out of 42 running backs in terms of catch rate, 36 of 55 targets. There are two players on this team that were much better. Darrell Williams is a 75%. Everything in camp was he's going to be the third downback. And then now you have Jerich McKinnon. He's a 75% third downback. I watched every snap of Jerich McKinnon yesterday.

He looks outstanding in the preseason. He brings an element to this team that they don't have with Clyde on third down. So I think both of those guys are going to siphon a lot of third down looks and targets from Clyde. He will still get some. But he came into the league. Look, I am the biggest Clyde truther out there last year coming into the draft. This is true. I loved him coming in. I watched 181 carries from him last year.

I think McKinnon and Darrell Williams are going to offer a little bit more in the passing game. That's why they brought them in. And I think McKinnon looks outstanding and that's what he's known for. Then I say, well, will he be better because of big plays? Like I said, I saw 181 carries last year. As longest play was 31 yards. He's not a big play guy. He's just not. He's a very solid runner, but he's not going to score a lot of long touchdowns. He's not going to score outside the 10.

So then I say, well, will it happen on the goal line? And that's my maybe. I think it might happen on the goal line. There's still the chance that Darrell Williams, who's much bigger than Clyde is, Clyde's 5'7, there's still a chance that Darrell Williams siphon some of those carries. They gave a lot to Lev Bell last year around the goal line. Clyde was still the leader, but he wasn't very good. He got stuffed a lot. And so then I say, well, is the workload going to go up? Is he going to be one of those kill the clock, lots of volume guys? And I got two reasons why I don't think that's going to happen, which is...

Number one, he's been hurt. He got hurt last year multiple times, ankle and hip. He got hurt already this preseason. And so you're saying, well, does the team trust him to overextend him and give him the kind of workload we would hope for for fantasy? I don't think that's going to happen based on the effectiveness of the other running backs. And he was the worst running back in football when it came to killing the clock and having efficiency. You didn't get Nick Chub, Kareem Hunt, end of games. You got the second worst yards per.

per carry in the fourth quarter. You got the most stuffed fourth quarter running back. He got stuffed a ton on the goal line. So again, 21 is where I have them ring. This is not a Barry Clyde. This is a bold prediction because everybody has them inside the top 20. I don't see it. And I wish I did. I wish I saw Clyde the way that you guys did because I loved him coming out. But I think he ends up outside the top 20 and disappointing people this year. So it is bold, but it is my conviction on Clyde.

You come back in the room, Jason. Oh, thank you. Thank you. I didn't hear a word you said. Good. I didn't say anything negative about a my guy. Fantastic. Yeah, I mean, I don't really need to counter punch here. You could just go back and listen to the my guys episode for the counter argument.

But I'm going to step up here with my next bold prediction. And this one is Tumsworthy. This one is... I love that. Wait, you're starting with this heat? Yeah, I'm bringing the fire. I'm saying that good old awful quarterback, Sam Darnold, is going to be a top 12 fantasy quarterback this year. What?

First of all. It's called it's bold predictions. It's not called just say stupid things into a microphone. Well, sure. Well, let me give my reasoning for believing that Sam Donald could actually be a top 12 quarterback this year. First of all, there's a lot of precedence for this. You look back and every single year on average, there are two quarterbacks that are outside of the top 16 drafted that finish as a quarterback won. But half of them won every single year on average.

is undrafted. So it's not like, oh, man, he was quarterback 1680P, and then we got, no, it's the entire fantasy community, just completely got it wrong. And whether it's Ryan Fitzpatrick or Blake Bortles or Alex Smith. And Donald's your guy. And Donald is the one that I think has a path forward to actually step forward. Sam Donald, if you didn't realize or remember, when he started, he was the youngest.

starting quarterback in NFL history. He is currently a little baby boy. He will be going into this season the same age that rookie quarterback last year went into his rookie season, Joe Burrow. And this is a team in the Panthers that they looked around. They had draft capital. They had the number eight. They took a look and they said, this guy is younger than Joe Burrow, has NFL experience, has talent. Like Teddy Bridgewater.

is safe. And while both Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Donald were checking it down and throwing inefficient passes in an inefficient offense, Donald actually can air it out. He has the physical talent. He has a cannon arm. And so when I look at this, I think about last year without Christian McCaffrey, Bridgewater, was the quarterback 19 already. He had five top 12 performances. You know,

He was the quarterback 10 through the first 10 weeks last year. This is Teddy Bridgewater. Donald has a higher ceiling than Bridgewater. Now he has even a better cast of characters. You're telling me we love Christian McCaffrey. Obviously, everyone does. Partially because of what he does in the passing game. DJ Moore.

Robbie Anderson, Terrace Marshall. They even added, I like him. The Postman, this offense is loaded. And while you could say, we stop talking about the Postman. Oh, no, never. He delivers on time. Why are you burying him? He's had a better chance this year getting paid by Carolina than he had last year in Arizona. Yeah. He did. He has a better shot. So you have.

a guy that the team went out, targeted, traded assets for on a loaded offense, where last year the quarterback who was meepalooza was already decent for fantasy. And then I want to remind people about the Adam Gays effect. We have seen it with player after player after player after player. But most importantly, there's one to talk about. That's a quarterback. That's Ryan Tannahill. And how much he just flat out sucked.

when it was time, he was on a 16-game pace through his two seasons with Adam Gays for 3,200 yards, exact same, in fact, a little bit less than what Sam Donald was on pace when he had him. If you look at some of the higher projection stats, some of the expected points added type of stuff, Sam Donald over the last two years was the second worst at that stat. Well, the two...

years that Tannahill was with Adam Gase. He was 33rd out of 39 in EPA. He sucked. The last two years, Ryan Tannahill's been number one. Adam Gase holds people back for sure. His offense was mind-numbingly stupid. So when we've seen Sam Donald suck, yeah, some of it's on him. We all remember him seeing ghosts out there the most unfortunate time ever. But this is a little baby boy playing.

With Adam Gase. Well, that's why he's scared of ghosts. Right. I mean, we all were scared of ghosts. Get the guy a nightlight for the huddle. It's dark in there. But I think that Sam Darnold actually has physical talents. And maybe this is, you know, the bias of when he was drafted, I thought he was a really good prospect. Obviously, most of the NFL did as well. You have really been, behind the scenes, you have been just inappropriately.

Pro Sam Darnold all offseason. So this is not new. It's bold to the listeners. It's not bold for our office. Now, I did make you move this bold prediction up to top 12. Yeah, that's true. From top 15. And you were like, sure, let's go. Well, I think it's in the range of outcomes. The Adam Gase, the talent, and the offense. Those are the three reasons. And when I'm drafting someone super duper late, undrafted, he's the quarterback 27. I think he checks a lot of boxes for being the guy who goes from undrafted to top 12. He certainly has.

all of the weapons. And if your exclamation, when you go, that's Teddy Bridgewater, if that exclamation ends up true where Donald isn't actually better talent than Bridgewater, which is super TBD, but if that's true, he has weapons to support it. So I, dude, I'd love to see it happen. So would Sam Donald. And so would this show, because we would do more Donald Schwarzenegger impressions. Mike, what is your first bold prediction for this?

episode. So I mentioned it at the top of the show, so I'm going to start it off with this one. My first spicy bold take, Damien Harris will finish the season as a top 20 running back. You're making the sour face at me. It's not sour. No, that was a, that was me deciding if top 20 was, is that bold enough? I don't feel like that's bold enough. It's, you know, where do you have him ranked, Andy? I, well, Andy, okay.

Well, I mean, are you doing a bit, you look at my rankings and do your bold predictions based off of that? No, I do not. I have them at 24. I have them at 33. Okay. So if you're projecting a running back at 33 hearing someone say, he's going to finish inside the top 20, I will go, well, that's a bold take. Just like I have Clyde Edwards Olair as a running back one. And I hear you say he's outside the top 20. I go, ooh, that's a bold take. Come on, Mike. Make him your number one.

Come on. He's going to finish higher than Christian McCaffrey. Thank you. Now it's bold. Look back at what has happened with. I was just bait. All I was doing was trying to bait. Oh, this is top 15 pick here. I can't do that because the pass catching is. Can I get a 19? Can I get a top 19? You got it. All right. I'll move him up. Damien Harris. Yeah, reread your bold prediction, please. Yeah, let's hear it. This is really aesthetically pleasing. All right. Damien Harris will finish.

As a top 19 running back. Let's go. Oh, yeah. The people love it. The people. So bold. All right. So here's where. Let's get to the meet. All right, go, Mike. Go. Just remember what has happened here, the story that Damien Harris is writing in the NFL. Last off season, everything was building towards him being the primary guy for New England. Got hurt in preseason.

Came in, he only played 10 games. But in those 10 games, he was a top 24 running back in five out of the 10. And he did that with two touchdowns because Cam Newton was stealing all of the goal line carries. Last year, Cam Newton had 10 carries. He had the 10th most carries inside the red zone. He had the fourth most. Oh, yeah, we need it. Thank you. Farewell. Farewell, booty scooter.